Note: I originally posted this essay at twoplustwo.com and it was suggested I repost it here. I was told the people of bj21.com are sharp and excellent in creating simulations. All comments are appreciated.
TEXAS SHOOTOUT � This game is beatable.
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I believe this may be the first comment made anywhere on the internet about the table game 'Texas Shootout. I have looked everywhere and have found no info. Only Texas Hold�em poker tournaments named 'shootout' or actual Texas massacres. :)
It is the only other game besides blackjack in the entire casino that has a memory. Memory means there is some way to take advantage of it for the player. If you don�t have this game at your casino let me first explain the game.
The shoe starts with 1 burned card. From then on out, every card is exposed. The shoe has 6 standard decks. After making a bet ($5-$500) each player is dealt 4 cards, as is the dealer. Each player picks two cards and discards two cards. You can split any four cards into two hands if you would like, an advantage for the player (for example if you have AdAdKcKc � NOTE: Some casinos only allow you to split pairs). The dealer always chooses her cards according to a predefined method. (Pocket pairs first, A K-Js, A K-Jo, etc)
5 community cards are then dealt. You can use two, one or none of your cards. If you have a better hand you win even money on your bet. A push goes to the house (so naturally you can�t win your wager with using neither of your cards). The house also has an advantage in that it gets to set its hand after you. Although its method is set, it changes things in that, if you choose pocket aces as your hand, and then the dealer has pocket aces as well, you would of rather had chosen the other two cards, because pockets aces vs. pocket aces will most likely be a push that you will lose.
THE REAL MONEY
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The real money comes in however with the bonus bet. You can place a bonus bet from $1 to $100. If you get a good hand you get paid according to the payout sheet.
Payouts
5 of a kind suited - 1000:1
Royal Flush - 200:1
Straight Flush 75:1
Five of a kind 40:1
Quads 7:1
Full House 3:1
Flush 2:1
Straight 1:1
In some casinos trips are a push on the bonus bet. Any other hand (two pair or lower) loses the bonus bet. There is also something called envy. If you make a bonus bet of $5 or more you get an envy disc. If you have an envy disc and someone else gets 5 of a kind suited, you win $1000, Royal Flush $250, Straight Flush $40, Five of a Kind $10 (I cant remember if those are exactly right, I don�t have the info card with me).
You win the bonus even if the dealer wins the hand. Let�s say you have a straight and the dealer has a flush, you lose your wager, but get paid on the bonus bet.
NOW, ONTO MY IDEAS...THIS GAME CAN BE BEAT
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This game is beatable. I have begun writing simulation software, but this is a huge undertaking. I just want to throw some ideas around and see if anyone else has ideas or thoughts on this. If you are playing at the table alone, or with a friend, you will know every card on the table (the dealer exposes her cards when deciding her hand). This is the ideal situation.
If you were able to keep track of how many cards were left in the deck you could alter your card selection and your bonus bet amount.
Lets same you get 2d2c7s8s
Normally you always take the pocket pair over anything else. But lets say you know that 22 2's have already come out. There are no more 2's in the deck, and you will most likely lose the hand, and most likely not get a bonus (and for sure not be able to get 5 of a kind, or quads). In this case you might want to go for the suited connecters, knowing you have a better shot at the straight flush. Normally a bad move, however in this case, you have information that tells you otherwise. If you were able to track the entire deck you could gain a *huge* advantage at this game, completely altering your card selections.
Another example: AdKdAd2s
Normally you always take the suited pair, going for the 5 of a kind suited. However, if you already have seen 2 Ad come out, you *can�t* get 5 of a kind suited�maybe you are better off going for the royal flush?
Perhaps tracking the entire deck is too hard. Maybe you can start by only keeping note of the Aces, Kings and Queens that have come out. Or if you want something even easier, what about just keeping a running count on the black vs. red card ratio?
Flushes are quite common in this game. If you get 5d2d10c8c you normally take the 10c8c. But if you know that the deck is +47 in red cards, you should take the 5d2d. Not only do you have a shot at the flush bonus, but when you do get a flush, you�re much more likely to win the original wager as well.
Like I said, I have begun writing simulation software, in an attempt to create tables that would say exactly, when the count is +40 raise your bonus bet x amount, when its +60 raise your bonus bet x amount, etc. The other great part, is that it doesn�t matter if the count is positive or negative, as long as the absolute value is large.
Keeping a count of the red vs. black should be easy, especially since the deal is very slow since most of the dealers have never played poker and it�s hard for them to read a poker hand (most have just learned so they can deal this game). Sometimes you get dealers that constantly try and take your money when you�re a winner, and constantly pay you off when you�re a loser.
Again, this game *is* beatable. Any thoughts?
Nate
http://www.offsuit.com - A different look at poker.
