Surrender odds calculation

I have seen many sheets when to surrender.But these are diffrent all the time.

Lets assume we have 16.odds are 5/13 that we make it(A to 5),that makes
38,46%
Dealer has 10.The probapility that he makes 17-21 is 80%(not calculated ,mental thinking)
So lets see player 100% vs dealer 80% game
1/100+1/80=9/400 400/9=44,44% So Dealer 44,44% vs player 55,55%

Lets calculate final plyer odds 38,46%*55,55%=21,36%!!!
Surrender much better 25%!!

According to that dealer 10/15 is 23.97%

and dealer 10/14 is 28,11%

But in this site there is reccomended 10/14 to SURRENDER
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/cgi-bin/bjbse.cgi

Could anyone can tell me abaut Surrender edge ,becouse in europe there are lot of casinos that accept Surrender

Your calculation is too simplistic and incorrect. For one, you don't account for situations when both you and the dealer bust but you lose your bet. Also with a ten the dealer chances to draw to a 20 are very high. I don't really understand your calculations but I know you can trust bjinfo.com charts.

Europe's surrender games offer early surrender. With this option in tact, the correct basic strategy is to surrender your 14,15,16 versus a ten card. You also surrender 16 versus 9. If surrender is permitted when dealer has an ace you should surrender your 12-17 and 5-7.

If you know of games that offer surrender versus dealer's ace in Europe, please email me at shahtura@yahoo.com

Shark

I have never heard abaout casinos that offer pure surrender.
Is it true that early surrender without ace gives a very little edge to the player(without counting)?

As far as BJ maths.Unfortunately i havnt seen any formulas how to calculate it,only succestions.
I would be very pleased when dealer 10 vs 14 percent is below 25% to justify Surrender.

I checked the site you used.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/cgi-bin/bjbse.cgi
It gave the correct decision to HIT 14 vs. dealer 10, not surrender.

Your methodology is incorrect. Any hand that has an expectation of losing 50% or more no matter how played should be surrendered. there are only a few:

16 vs. 10 (except 8-8)
16 vs. 9
16 vs. A
15 vs. 10

That is it ... presuming that you are discussing LATE Surrender [where the dealer checks under his Ace for a BJ before you can elect to surrender 1/2 of your wager]

With most common rules found in europe (ENHC, S17, DOA, DAS, ES10 at best) a basic strategist still plays in a small disadvantage. You need to count these games in order to gain edge.

The expectation of 14 Vs. 10 is less then 0.25 and you should surrender your fourteens.

I recommend you to read Professional Blackjack. This book includes expectations for each two card hand versus any dealer upcard. It also would give you tools to gain an edge in blackjack.

Flash's advice below relates to games in America , where the dealer takes a hole card and early surrender is a thing of the past. Shark

P.S. please email me where this game takes place at shahtura@yahoo.com

If you check the last paragraph in privador's post (the one you are replying to) you would see that he speaks of many casinos in europe that offer surrender. In europe the dealer doesn't take a holecard and when surrender is offered, it is from the early surrnder variety. In this case, privador reported ES10 and basic strategy calls for surrender 14 versus a 10 card. Shark

I believe it is also correct to surrender 15 vs A if the dealer must hit a soft-17. The BS that I learned (for surrender) was to surrender 16 vs 9, 10 and A, and surrender 15 vs 10 (all assume stand on 17). Adding hit on soft 17 adds the 15 vs A at least as I learned the strategy...

And note I said BS, not modified BS using the TC.