% strategy question

In my last 4 visits to casinos, I am up $3000 playing what I call a homemade % startegy. I wish to know if it is sound or not and if it will keep working (it has yet to fail) In short...

I bring an amount say 200 with the goal of making 200 (or 100%) in 5 sessions (or 20% per session). I play 2 hands at a time with 10% of my money at risk each hand(in this case 10 per hand). I f I am doing really bad...sya down 50% to 100, I half my bets. I increase back after two consecutive wins or I rise above 50%.

I assume that at some point in the game i will be up 20% (like a sin curve) and at that point, leave the game. I have done this roughly 50 times without fail. I realize it is not perfect but if this works 5 times, now you risk their money :) Total I am up 3800...any comments

Unfortunately, I think you have achieved a false sense of security. I can't make any mathematical sense of what you are doing.

You know, If you flip a coin 50 times, it is quite possible it will land the way you choose 75% during that 50 flip set. However, that certainly doesn't mean you have figured out how to beat the game.

Also, you should not set goals as to how much you should win. There are a few reasons to stop playing such as: fatigue, heat, bad conditions, loosing your session roll, not wearing out your welcome or having something else to do instead of BJ.

You may have been better served by just placing one bet of $3800. You would have saved a lot of time and effort, win or lose. You would also not have developed a false sense of security.

Sorry, but that's the way I see it. Let's see what others have to say.

You may have a lucky streak early on, so it seems your logic to prove true, but the odds will simply catch up to you if you keep playing based on previous outcomes, and it won't take too long before you get frustrated with losing. Each and every bet you make on any game in any casino holds a percentage to the house. It doesn't matter if you make those bets consecutively or if 200 separate people come in and make 1 bet per person and quit. The casino will get their percentage in the end. So unless you have knowledge of the previous card that are out of play then you can never have a true advantage at this game.

from playing your system. However if you realise that the odds are against you but still wish to play, then what you have is a form of money management that you are comfortable with.

The playing of 2 hands is the only thing that makes real sense as it lowers your variance.

Before I started counting, I played and would increase my bet by 50% of what I won each hand, starting again at $25 when I lost. This gave me no edge but it satisfied me until I came across counting and never looked back :)

You can stumble onto a money management system, that works most of the time. The betting is really the outward appearance of some underlying theory. The theory itself is the important factor and must be thoroughly understood. If the theory is sound, it will answer any questions you have and additionally stand up to any mathematical scrutiny.

You mentioned that you won $3000 in the last three sessions and you're up $3800. This implies that you won a net of $800 in your previous 47 sessions. Hope your good fortune continues.

First....thanks for the feed back, I am new to blackjack.

I admit I am not much of a statistics guy but...my general mode of thinking is that if you play a game that is close to 50% odds sometimes you will be up and some times down. I simply want to leave the table up 20%...if you risk 100% to do it...it will be rare that you go out...almost as rare as you doubling up with unit bets. I do everything I can to play the best odds w/o counting cards (play by the card and play 2 hands)

Stealth Bomber....It is unlike a progression...correct me if I am wrong... because I become conservative when down...not more agressive.

But we all know you can go to a 5$ table with 200 and play all night (as long as you don't bet poorly) And if you do it...see how many times you reach 240....

North wind... to clarify... i started with 200 to make 200 and did that four times = 20 sessions then I increased my bank roll to 1000 and made that three times = 15 more sesions... So..I exagerated sorry... it has worked 35 straight times not 47...800 + 3000 = 3800

To close...i may just be the luckies guy ever...but believe me...In this streak...i have had a bunch of bad beats.

Any further feedback much appreciated....oh and good luck...or variance which ever you perfer :)
B-dog

Of course you can get up to 240 many times. However, sometimes you will never see 240 and you will lose your 200 altogether. So you need 5 wins in a row against only 1 loss and that's just to break even. Also Blackjack is not a 50 percent game. Thats based on absolutely perfect basic strategy (which changes based on the rules of the individual casino and also changes your basic strategy chart, so you need the right one for each different casino).

Also progressions are not necessarily LOSS progressions. Some are WIN progressions (most people call it pressing). Being new to the game you are going to come up with all these ways to make money gambling that no one has thought of before. Forget them all. Believe me, casinos did not just plop down table games haphazardly in hopes no one would "figure" out the secret. Each and every table game especially new ones, are all well thought out from every angle and have had millions of computer generated tests done on them.

The only way to beat any card game is to find out what cards have been taken out of play.

"The only way to beat any card game is to find out what cards have been taken out of play"

Not strictly true. BJ is mostly beaten by CC's knowing which cards have been dealt, although there are other oppurtunities to beat BJ.

It is unlike a progression...correct me if I am wrong... because I become conservative when down...not more agressive.

I think it is a reverse progression. You're betting larger when you're up and smaller when you're down. This only works IF it works. There is nothing mathematical to support it in the long run. Sorry, but that is just the way it is. I'm sure there are others here who know BJ math much better than I who will concur.

In a nut shell, the only true long term way to be a winner is to bet large when you have an advantage and bet small or nothing when you don't.

My advise is to study quality materials and develop a sound mathematical supported way to beat the casinos in the long run. You have come to the right place to begin the learning process.

You are just wasting you're time, effort and eventually a lot of $ until you learn more about the game.

bdog, can you read this?:

1 2 2 3 4 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 Z -1 -2 -1 Z 1 2 3 2 3 3 4

This is how a 1/2 deck of cards are counted in Hi-Low fashion. Any first grader can do it with some practice. If you were playing while the above count was created and if you had studied some, you would know when to bet large while having an advantage or small when there was no advantage. It really not so difficult, especially with slow hand-held games.

Why do you think the casinos are so worried about counters? Go figure!

Cards taken out of play is the same statement as cards that have already been dealt.

Richard I am not disputing that cards taken out of play, or cards dealt are the same thing. That I chose to word something deifferently to you is not a challenge as to the validity of what you posted.

What I disagreed with was you saying

"The only way to beat any card game is to find out what cards have been taken out of play."

there are many ways to beat BJ, that have nothing to do with cards being taken out of play.