Can someone explain SD & EV to me "as if" I'm a 5 year old. I'm having a hard time understanding these to words.
How can I use them for a $2500 BR
I use KO
My spread is 1-12
AC Rules: S17, DAS
FW & MS Rules: S17, DAS, LS
I back-count and enter the game @ -1 hilo / +3 KO
LW
PS. I have BJA and I'm still confused.
EV is just the average. It is expected value. The mean value. Since you asked for an elementary definition I won't give any formula for SD. It is simply a unit that we use to describe a range of volatility, or fluctuations around the mean. About 2/3 of a population will fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean. So if a mean value is +2 and the standard deviation is 6, we would expect about 2/3 of the population (of results or anything else) to be between -4 & +8 in a "normal distribution". Thankfully, bj seems to have a pretty normal distribution.
You'll have to learn quite a bit more before you can apply them to the situation you described. I believe there is a tutorial of some type on bjmath.com. I suggest you check that out.
Let me say loud and clear that card counting is hard and is not as rewarding as the books make it out to be. If it were an easy way to make money everyone would be doing it.
If you do not know the basic strategy trying to count cards is highly ill-advised. Experienced card counters still play by the basic strategy the great majority of the time. There can be no short cut around learning the basic strategy, those who attempt card counting without a firm foundation in the basic strategy are making a big mistake.
To be a successful counter you have to be able to count down a deck fast and memorize some of the index as well as make it look like you're just a casual player to be a treat to the joint. Furthermore, with today's bad rules, a realistic advantage the counter will have is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not win money slowly and gradually but your bankroll will go up and down like a roller coaster because of Standard Deviation that is part this game.
Purple Haze
Sounds awfully familiar to me. Almost verbatim...
Welcome to statistics 101.
Instead of blackjack, I'll use a random coin flip as a simpler illustration of the EV & SD concepts.
EV is the calculated gain or loss based on the the actual odds of a game. Using the coin flip as example, it is obviously a calculated breakeven game based on the 50/50 odds, or in other words EV=0 (you don't win anthing, but don't lose anything).
It is one thing to calculate the expected gain or loss, but another to actually achieve that gain or loss in practice. In our coin flip example, say you are betting heads every flip. In four flips, we would expect 2 wins & 2 losses on average, but our actual results could easily be 4 wins, 4 losses, 3 wins-1 loss, or 3 losses-1 win. This deviation from the average expected result is known statistically as standard deviation. It is also commonly referred to with terms like short run fluctuation and luck.
We can never say with a 100% certainty what the outcome a number of trials will be, but as we increase the number of trials we increase the certainty that we will be closer to the average expected value. Back to the coin flip for example, think of the two extremes in number of trials. On the low end with 1 flip we will either win 100% of the time or lose 100%, and either way we are way off the expected 50% value. Even using our original 4 flips there is a healthy 1 in 8 chance that all 4 flips will match, and an additional good chance of a 3 to 1 or 1 to 3 outcome. Percentagewise, the actual results are very likely to vary from the average expected value by a huge amount when using few trials. Now think of a zillion flips. There is no reason for it to not be possible for all flips to match, but obviously it is not very likely (about the same odds I experienced last night when I attempted to get Bigplayer to pick up the dinner check). We know we are much more likely, although never 100% certain, that the actual outcome will be very near the 50/50 expected outcome. This concept of deviation going down as the number of trials (as in # of bj hands) goes up is why it is important to try to get into the "long run", as players often say. It is also one reason many players team (the team gets into the long run much quicker than an individual could, and therefore overcomes short run fluctuations quicker).
You don't give enough info to calculate your EV & std dev. We need to know your unit size and bet ramp in addition to the info you provided. BJRM2000 is great software for generating these numbers, and I highly recommend it for any serious players. It was recently withdrawn from the market for updating, and my understanding is it should be available again soon if it is not currently available.
As an example of the use of EV & SD in blackjack, assume we are playing a game in which we calculate our hourly EV to be $50 with a std dev of $500. This means that on any given hour of play, we expect to win $50 on average, and our actual results will be within plus or minus $500 68% of the time (1 std dev.). In other words, after 1 hr of play we will be either ahead more than $550 or behind more than $450 32% of the time. Furthermore, 95% of the time your actual result will be within 2 std deviations ($1000 in this example) of the expected value. In this example, you would be ahead more than $1050 or behind more than $950 only 5% of the time. Check the link below of a non-bj site for a graph and a better explanation of std dev.
EV & SD also go together with risk of ruin, bankroll, and bet size/spread/ramp in blackjack. One first needs to determine their true bankroll. Common errors are failing to deduct money needed for expenses, paying tips out of BR, or failing to adjust for money that can be added in the near future, such as adding a weekly amount to one's bankroll from a paycheck. Then one must determine the amount of risk he is willing to accept. We define ROR as the probability of going broke before doubling the bankroll. An acceptable ROR may be 1% for some people who are very conservative, and could be 20% or more for others for are willing to take a lot of risk. Generally to lower ROR requires increasing BR and/or reducing bet unit size/spread. An exception would be to reduce the spread too low, approaching flat betting, in which case ROR starts to rise. Once one determines their BR and the amount of risk they are willing to take, they can formulate the proper bet size and spread that their casinos of choice will tolerate. Just remember that we can never say with 100% certainty that you won't go broke no matter how big your BR is or how small your bet unit. Just as in the coin flip example, it's not impossible for you to lose thousands of blackjack hands in a row even with proper play, it's just highly unlikely.
Besides bjmath.com as DD' suggested, I would also suggest any basic statistics site or books. Blackjack is one specific application, and therefore bj reference material may be more limited and less basic than general statistics books/sites.
"PS. I have BJA and I'm still confused."
You honestly read pp. 17-19 of BJA slowly and carefully and didn't understand that? Come on. Try again! :-)
Don
"FW & MS Rules: S17, DAS, LS
I back-count and enter the game @ -1 hilo / +3 KO
LW
PS. I have BJA and I'm still confused."
enter at hilo -1/ +3KO ??? that statement is inconsistent. if you must play right now i suggest you follow instructions from KO BJ. hilo is true counted and when you have the opportunity i suggest you read a book to understand that as well.
But with IRC or -20, you definitely have the edge at +3 and can enter a little earlier, if you wish, especially with the good rules.
Actually, I'm doing quite well at the tables, but my BR is on a rollercoaster ride at the moment. I thought if I had a better understanding of SD, EV, & ROR, I could understand why I'm going through these "win some, lose some streaks" and do a better job at managing my BR and not over-bet.
I also made a mistake on my last post, I meant to say I enter +1 HiLo / -3 KO.
LoneWolf
