Spouse and TC correlation

First: Bringing a spouse into the BJ picture is a recipe for DISASTER.

Second: In count-based strategy variations, a TC of +3 only gives you an edge of 1.0%. This means you effectively have a 50.55% chance of winning and 49.45% chance of losing. At a count of +8, your edge is 3.5% and your effective chances of winning and losing are 51.75% and 48.25%, respectively. Odds in your favor? Yes! Enough in your favor to keep betting the MAX-bet even if you�re losing hand after hand after hand? No!

You need a good spread -- not because your chances of winning the big bets are so good, but because a high bet at an infrequently occurring small advantage is needed to outweigh the base bet at a frequently occurring greater disadvantage. But spreading magnifies the variance. And spreading while losing on positive counts is also a recipe for DESASTER.

Puiu
PS: And don�t forget:
"When preparation and knowledge meets opportunity in a combination of events and circumstances, then sometimes the obvious can be a little hard to see. It's like rock climbing You drive a steel peg into the rock and move up a notch. You may go for a long while before you fall, but when you do, you only drop one notch. In the long run, you make it to the top. It may take you less time than others, or more time than others, but you do make it. ----- Puiu 7/19/02"

using YOUR numbers at +8 (51.75% win 48.25% loss)

Say I placed a bet 1000 times (at $500 per hand) my return would be
$500,000 * 3.5% or +$17500.

We cannot be certain what order the wins and losses will come in.
Just as we cannot know the order of wins and losses in tossing a fair coin?
But we do know after 100,000 flips the results will be almost exactly
50/50.

Unless of course you disagree with your own math?

D.

PS is your name pronounced POO ?

The Expected Value (EV) completely disregard risk they focus entirely on squeezing the last drop of advantage out of every play. And, probably you think this sounds good but there is the danger lurking with this disregard for risk.

You wrote:
"Say I placed a bet 1000 times (at $500 per hand) my return would be $500,000 * 3.5% or +$17500. "

Yes! Only in theory but in real life you've got to survive 1000 times while betting $500 each at TC=+8 and that is:

$500,000*51.75% = +$258,750 winnings

$500,000*48.25% = -$241,250 lost

I have to admit you are consistent. A TC of 4 is needed just to have a 50/50 shot at winning.

Study up.. my boy,girl,whatever?

Say I have a 1 million dollar bankroll, wheres the risk?

Puiu wroteEven at high counts you will still lose more hands that you will win.

Last time I checked I put dollars in my bank account not "hands won or lost"?

QUESTION?: So how much did you lose to the casinos?

D.

........., to break even with the house. From where did you got the TC=4?
If the house has 0.5% over the player then a TC=1 give you a 0.5%.
So, -0.5% +0.5% = ZERO, EVEN.
Unless you are talking about 8 decks game which no player in his right mind is messing with. Not even a 6 deck game is playable unless back counted or shuffke tracked.

But, hey! ..

The WIN/LOSS ration is almost unchanged regardless of the count. The extra money comes from the 3:2 on BJ and from some double downs moves. If you don't get your fair share of double downs and BJ per hour YOU WILL LOSE MONEY!

...., and I never lost a session in the last 1,500 hours or 300 sessions of 500 rounds each. Never had a losing session. 300 straight winning session of 5 hours each and keep going better like never before. Honest!

losing player to me!

Puiu wroteNever had a losing session. 300 straight winning session of 5 hours each and keep going better like never before. Honest!

Yeah me too! LOL

D.

...where is SONIA? G

...., and I never lost a session in the last 1,500 hours or 300 sessions of 500 rounds each. Never had a losing session. 300 straight winning session of 5 hours each and keep going better like never before. Honest!

What bull****.

If we ignore him, maybe he'll go away and stop wasting everyone's time with this nonsense.

Puiu:

1. Agree with ya about the wife thing...its a receipe for failure, cause your manlyhood comes through and you do not follow your strategy.....but how would you know about this if you have not lost a session in 18 years?

2. if you have not lost a session in 18 years, can you spare some of that luck for the rest of us? better yet, sell your house, borrow a huge bankroll and goto town.(though i would not advise doin so)

3. do you know a source for BSV for 2 deck game{S17, DAS, DA2(ace only draw once}

4. Lastly, the odds of getting a BJ are 1 in 20 on average, do you know a source that provides the odds for BJ given varations in TC and side aces counts? From an anedotal perspective, after a recent wonging episode I had a BJ in approx 1 of every 8 hands --- playing 67 hands.

Why?

When preparation and knowledge meets opportunity in a combination of events and circumstances, then sometimes the obvious can be a little hard to see. It's like rock climbing You drive a steel peg into the rock and move up a notch. You may go for a long while before you fall, but when you do, you only drop one notch. In the long run, you make it to the top. It may take you less time than others, or more time than others, but you do make it.

As the count climbs or the count drops it makes not difference of how many hands you win or lose. In average you will still lose about 48 and win about 44 +/- something while the rest you will break even.

One million hands sim: Using Uston APC

  Win on Positive  = 177757 

  Win on Negative  = 206634 

  Lose on Positive = 212314 

  Lose on Negative = 212444 



  Percentage of Winning Hands = 44.500%

  Percentage of Losing Hands  = 48.846%

  Percentage of Push Hands    =  6.654%

Thanks for asking,
Sonia is great. She is my sweetheart. Sometime she is playing but since God given us a beautiful child she mostly take care of our little Alex

I never had a losing year since 1984 but in the last 1.5 years I never lost a single session. I lost before some sessions but I had a winning year in the end. But now I�m going without a losing session for over the last 1,500 hours. I have reached the session #300 this past weekend. And, I know for sure that I will never lose sessions. I�m talking here about serious BJ of 5 hours on each session with some breaks in between, but on average my sessions are about 4-5 hours a day.

I know that some of you don�t believe because:
When preparation and knowledge meets opportunity in a combination of events and circumstances, then sometimes the obvious can be a little hard to see

Well, It's like rock climbing You drive a steel peg into the rock and move up a notch. You may go for a long while before you fall, but when you do, you only drop one notch. In the long run, you make it to the top. It may take you less time than others, or more time than others, but you do make it

say no more.
I Totally understand whats Going on.

D.

Puiu,
I think the allegory about EV squeezing every last drop out of advantage out of every play was written by Don or someother BJ great. I can be found at a Risk Averse Strategy site I've read it. Its a good thing you have good writers or we would all know what an ignorant moron you really are.