excuse me, but can you define NRS?
what do you mean by non-random shuffle? Do you define it as a good thing, or a bad thing? Have you ever heard of NRS tracking? or the MIT team?
what do you mean by non-random shuffle? Do you define it as a good thing, or a bad thing? Have you ever heard of NRS tracking? or the MIT team?
look no different than the computer hot dealer. Examine a sim of 100,000 hands and you will see amazing hot and cold streaks. Just like real life. Just like in craps or other games. To the knowlegeable people on this board, you are arguing that the earth is flat. You need to read and understand the available literature, and scientific analysis that has been done, then come back and argue your points. If the "experts" are wrong, then you can refute them on their own terms.
WHAT A JOKE!!!!!
Talk about a disillusioned madman. That nut has such a loyal following, it was almost cult-like. It's places like those that make me happy to be living in Las Vegas, and knowing that we have no state income taxes as a result of people like that. He must have charisma to attract such a loyal following. Methinks Jim Jones had such charisma. More punch, anyone?
"So how bad of a play is it, mathematically, to leave after you've lost X amount of units, instead of at least finishing the shoe?"
By "how bad" I'll assume you mean "how much expected loss". Assuming one handed play, the expected loss for not finishing the shoe:
(WR/100)*<[(N-d)*52]-[(N*52)*{(p-100%)*-1}]/[(2.72*n)+2.89]>
WR: Expected Win per 100 hands
N : decks (total)
d : decks played
p : penetration (in %)
n : hands played (all players)
*note that (, {, [, and < are all parenthetical (is that a word?:-) in nature.
**note also that a variation of this formula could be used for multiple hand play, as well as for approximating expected loss on a session that's cut short.
Conclusions:
1. A heads-up green chipper, with a $25 Win Rate, leaving in disgust with half a 4.5/6 shoe to go, loses $3.47593582887 over the cold & calculating player, who stays and grinds out the shoe 'cause he's not scared off by a little kick in the balls from our ol' pal Stan D.
2. I obviously have no life, whatsoever :-)
ANS
Would you have left this table, and if so, why?
just curious, i have a soft spot for progressions too, but still count when possible
I only play-all against SD and DD (I only wong shoes), but the original poster doesn't specify the game he was playing. Assuming that it was a playable game, I would not have left the table unless one of the following happened:
1. Decreased penetration
2. Increased scrutiny / heat from the pit.
3. Fatigue
4. Another player starts annoying me (cigarette smoke, advice, etc)
5. Too many players at the table
6. Every other player leaves and I am at a place that tolerates sitting out some (negative count) hands.
7. I feel myself becoming frustrated and losing composure / control
8. Irritating dealer (toke hustling, questioning my plays to the other players, etc)
9. Session bankroll drops below 3-4 max bets (I like to leave enough BR to take advantage of a positive count with splits, double downs, etc)
10. Time limit reached for that casino (session time limits are casino specific and based on heat levels at each casino)
11. Count tanks and I am close to my session time limit.
12. A hot CW offers me a private game of BJ in the parking lot.
So the answer to your question is maybe. This situation may have led to items 4,5,6,7 and 9 based on the original post. BTW, I am still waiting for number 12 to happen ;).
But all versions of the systems Gary "The Pro" has posted over the years. From simple up 1 on a loss, down 1 on a single win, and down 2 on any win >1X, to very complex versions never posted on this site but presented a while back.
The way this Free board is layed out now makes it difficult to get into any real conversations regarding the evil "progression".
I am in no way challenging any counter or counters perspective either regarding progressions. I respect the math behind all counter arguments. Its just that they seem to work for me. I had recently won 23 trips in a row, then lost 1 time (very minor loss also, only $60, I ran out of time), and am back up to 3 trips in a row. A collegue of mine could never win at BJ, and using the simple version mentioned above (as well as finally learning perfect basic strategy) has won 5 times in a row. We use very strict money management rules on a per session basis, but do vary actual session bank and goals from time to time. It all depends on the mood or the atmosphere of a given session.
I will be able to post more regarding some of the various progressions I have had luck with at a later time. With this being the 2nd week of school, I am a little buried. As you can see from some of my other recent posts, I was also toying with incorporating some counting techniques into a progression system, so I do value the value of counting. Right now, progressions are working for me though.
I hope this does not some anti-progression thing, especially considering all of the good advice and helpful discussion in response to my post above looking for advice.
Love your work Adam, but in your example you should probably consider the TC at which the player leaves and adjust the win rate accordingly.
If your $25/hour green chipper leaves at a neutral or negative count then his WR/100 for the remaining hands is negative and he is saving money.
If, on the other hand, he leaves with say a 2% advantage on his max bet of $300 (1-12 spread) then his WR/100 for the remaining hands would be around $600 and he is leaving more like $40 on the table.
Moral: always play out a positive shoe.
...astute observation Magician, that was a very ploppylike oversight on my part. Damned True Count Theorem...;-)
ANS
they are very useful.....
first used martingale with shorterm succes, when that failed moved to d'alembert (which i figured out on my own from martingale)
then got interested in positive progressions, (tired of hitn runs....sometimes its nice to just play for a few houres, instead of a quick few hundred/go in 10-15mins)
developed my own progression which seems to condradict itself...
works well in choppy and streaky play, good streak will make alot (i mean ALOT), bad wont cost much, comes out ahead in choppy play too...
i guess you could say it gets the results of d'alembert in choppy play, and the results of a up as you win progression
anyway, most of my money is made at my home casino right now (the next 2 closest large casinos are a full days dive away, so i dont get there much...and my home casino is poor for counting (60% pen, not the greatest rules etc...), and my home town casino income is made from progressions only....
i hit 6 figures without having to count a card....that said i do count now, just not there (the more in my arsenal the more $$$)
trust me this was not luck....its because i pay more attention to managing my money than anything else...
In the late '70s I wrote a model (not a "simulation," but a MODEL) of the "stutter shuffle" then in widespread use in Atlantic City. The cards were dealt, picked up, stacked in the discard pile, then shuffled as close as possible to the way they were actually handled by flesh-and-blood dealers.
To make a long story short, I learned two things from this research:
1) Like-card "bunching" or "clumping" *was* higher with the stutter shuffle than with a standard computer random shuffle; and
2) Patterson's theories did *FAR* worse with the stutter shuffle than they did with a computer random shuffle (which was pretty bad to start with)!
To me, this is conclusive proof that Patterson's claim that the deterministic "stutter shuffle" is the cause of the claimed "biases" is just so much hogwash. Indeed, the exact opposite would seem to be the case.
Yes, the increased like-card bunching causes both the basic strategy player and the card counter to do worse than with a truly random shuffle.
But, NO, Patterson's "answer" to this simply does NOT work.
The only answer I've been able to come up with is: avoid games with this kind of shuffle. The normal ShuffleMaster machines (not the ShuffleMaster King or other CSMs) produce a *very* good shuffle and, assuming the other rules are favorable, a very beatable game.
I wonder how much followers of Jerry Patterson have contributed to the casinos bottom lines, allowing me that much more cover at extracting my small profits?
Hello:
i am starting to count cards, because I finally accept that it's the only way. I don't count in the casinos yet, because there are only two near to my, and i want be sure that a can do it.
But i have still a big doubt in my mind: Are some people making money with progresions?????? I really dont have a answer for this, but a think that the answer is "NO". There are a mountains of arguments for this.
And then you, in your post, claims that you are doing it.
HOW????
are you doing some weird, some complicated thing , or WHAT ???
can you explain me your methods of betting????
If you can't want to said it to me, a understand.
THKS in advance
saludos
it has been mathematically proven that over the long run, progressions dont work...
however, the techniques i have implemented seem to be working, and have worked for about a year, with sessions about every second day....i have only lost twice through 'bad luck', and the other 6 times were through stupidity...these losses were not large... (my wins are generally about the same size as my losses, sometimes a bit smaller, sometimes much larger)
im always changing the way i play, (between hitn runs and long hauls),
my use of money management (in other ways besides progressions), the length and target for my sessions (modest), the number of sessions i have, my discipline etc allow me to come out ahead...
i have no way mathematically to prove any progression, nor would i suggest they do in fact work over the long run (suicide on this forum)...
i have seen the maths to prove that they dont work over the long run, but still, with around a year and well over 100 sessions and 6 figures later (AU$s), i would say i am defying the odds...
including my pc play, (well more than table play), i have played 'the long run'....this is with no great luck (know for a fact i have lost more than won, i record after every session)
most of my sessions are hitn runs, which arguably evade the long run (or arguably one giant session). my point is im there and am only there short time (except for long hauls), so i do not have the same risk as a normal progressionist...
that said i do count, just not at my home casino...
only wong when counting...
many pros will say the only way i can be so far ahead (after a $100 'investment'), is with plenty of good luck...
if that was the case, then i would be defying the probabilities anyway by having so much luck in the 'long term'...
it doesnt matter if you believe in progressions or not, believe counting works etc, i have the $$$ to back it up...
in the end, im making more money than quite a few 'counting only' players....
that said, when i do turn 21, and hit the US, i will have a very large BR that most wouldnt have....
at that point, i have arrived to where counting will be my main tool...considering the amount of time i have to perfect my skills (1.5 years), and the large BR i already have...i would say as long as i keep it smart i will be able to make a great living off this game (even tough i want to branch off into other areas of gambling)....
i would also like to think if i survive the next few years (very likely), that i would have pulled off something pretty special, and few other players could replicate...
i am very serious about this as my profession, and would not consider my self a 'normal' counter or progressionist...
i have spent enough time over the last year playing (and about 3-4 months solid research before that) to give me the experience of somebody who has played for longer than me...
i DID start counting before using progressions....
i might defy the maths but at the end of the day ive got the $$$ over many counters...
my search in both worlds, the counting and the progs.
Counting in my country, Argentina, maybe not is an option, because the rules are veeeery bad. ( spread 1:30).
So this is the cause for my interest in progs.
just a few final questions:
are your progs Positive or negative??
you use counting while are betting progs???
Thank you so much for your comments.
Saludos
use both pos & neg progressions...
mainly neg if not counting but use 200 units BR's...this normally will allow me to make 50-100 units without too much trouble..
if you use progressions, it is likely that you will fail...
but if you do decide on them, be very disciplined, dont overbet, etc...
that said i do count, but not much at my home casino (have to count SP21)...
when counting, i mainly wong and use my own progression system...
it doesnt get units quite as quickly as the neg (d'alembert) i use...but it is played at higher stakes, is more accurate and is played when i have the edge....it is not terrible on losing streaks, is good at choppy play and great at winning streaks...
you wont get much support of progressions on this board, as it has been proven mathematically over and over again that they do not give you an edge....they can however, make you money...still, most people will fail with them...i just happen to be one whos been very successful so far....
if you do use a progression, start at low $$ tables and find a system that works for you...
use the 'BJ Reference' on this site, and go to 'money management'...
it has some good point on why you shouldnt use progressions, but also explains quite a few of the more popular progressions...
short term, you are in no worse a situation that a counter who is just starting out, with a small BR...have a decent run and you will be ahead, a bad run will kill both of you...
using a spread of 1-30 would require a very large BR, which i would think would have a high degree of risk, and attract a high degree of heat...i wouldnt bother...UNLESS you have alot of money to finance yourself with...if thats the case i would play all the casinos for all theyre worth, then move to a more profitable country, or at least take regular trips overseas...
