Short Term/ Long Term

I'm having a hard time understanding the whole concept of long-term/short-term. Does this mean that each session (no matter whether same day or week later) at a blackjack table is just one big session but just split up, basically each session is a continuation of the last and in the long run if you play long enough you will lose (considering u play straight basic strayegy w/ no card counting). It just confuses me because I feel like each session is independent of any other session with no memory of what happened in previous plays.

Say that everytime I go to the casino I only play 15 hands, isn't that short term? And everyone says that in the short term a player can win but it is in the long run in which a player with always lose(unless card counting). Therefore, aren't I always playing short term by playing only 15 hands a day.

And what exactly is long term. I mean the basic strategy was developed through simulating billions of hands, I will never play a billion hands, so doesnt the strategy change a little bit. Because a 15 hands a day player and a 350 hands a day player have different definitions of long term. Does this also mean that because one is playing 350 hands a day he will reach the "long term" (and his inevitable failure) sooner than the person playing 15 hands a day.

Im not sure if any of this is valid, I am a little confused about this topic and would appreciate it if somebody could clear it up for me. Thank You.

The math people will tell you it's not so much a matter of the number of hands, but of expectation. IOW, when playing 6D B.S, you have an average negative expectation of 0.4%. By that reasoning, it doesn't matter if you play the next (or 16th, using your example) hand immediately or the next day or the next week or if you play it at the same table or at a different table in a different casino -- you still will the same negative average expectation, and will therefore have the same average net result.

I'm not sure I agree with the above personally. Ask any dealer, and they will tell you they often have (often pronounced) "hot" and "cold" spells. Sure, all that averages out in the long run, but it is not inconceivable a player could hit more tables with "cold" dealers than ones with "hot" dealers in his lifetime, and thus die ahead of the game never having learned how to count.

Not likely, mind you, but not impossible either.

IOW, I tend to agree with you that each session is independent of every other session. Not only do the cards have no memory (assuming you're not counting), but if you come back the next day you'll probably be playing with different cards, and against a different dealer with a different shuffling fineness/technique and with different players at the table determining what is being shuffled.

But this does not change the fact that in the long run, on average, you will lose about 0.4% of the amount bet; so 15 hands bet at an average of $12 ($10 plus another $2 average on doubles and splits) will result in an average loss of 0.4% x $180, or about 72 cents.