What is the risk of ruin and expected win if you go into the Borgata with $1000 and bet $25 a hand at their 6 deck shoes with 80 pen no surrender no resplit aces?
The ROR is 100% if you play long enough. As phrased, your question is impossible to answer for the short-term. One would have to know what the short-term is.
Your Expected Win is minus $1,000.
So your question becomes "With how many hours of joy will I be blessed until my money is all gone?". For me the answer would be none, as there is nothing joyful in a certain loss. If you find such a thing joyful I recommend GA, or a thousand dollar donation to the Igor Betterment Charity Group, care of Pi Yee Press.
> What is the risk of ruin and expected win if you go into the
> Borgata with $1000 and bet $25 a hand at their 6 deck shoes with 80
> pen no surrender no resplit aces?
...but I need more information.
Flat betting $25 each hand means that you are playing at a disadvantage and therefore your EV is about -$12.50 per hour and your ROR is somewhere over 50%. Your ROR will vary depending on the number of hours you plan to play. If you play only 10 hands then your ROR will obviously be close to 0%. However, if you play for 25 hours your ROR is closer to 100%. If you play long enough you will certainly lose all of your money.
I assume that you did not mean a flat betting player using proper basic strategy. If you want to know a card counter's ROR I will need to know how much you bet at each TC, what system you use, and when you take insurance. I am further assuming that you are talking about bringing a $1000 PORTION of your bankroll for a weekend trip and not an ENTIRE bankroll of $1000. If that is the case I will also need to know how many hours you want to play on this trip. If $1000 is your TOTAL bankroll then your ROR is enormous and you will almost certainly go broke. Even a $5000 bankroll would probably be insuficient to play a $5 game, forget about a $25 one.
-Sonny-
For 500 hands, you'd have an ROR of about 13.5%, which means you'd lose it all about once every seven sessions.
I meant to say that my plan is to go in with a thousand and wong $25 a hand in +3 counts and leave when the count goies below 2. What is the chance that I will win $500 as opposed to lose a thousand in a given night? I am trying to build my br so at the end of the month when I come into another couple thousand dollars I can wong a little more. My goal is to get to 5k so I can go to Reno ,then Tunica, then Vegas.
I meant to say that my plan is to go in with a thousand and wong $25 a hand in +3 counts and leave when the count goies below 2. What is the chance that I will win $500 as opposed to lose a thousand in a given night?
If you restrict your Wonging to +3 while Wonging out at less than +2, I'd say you have a near zero chance of winning $500 in 5 hours at $25 a hand. Why? You aren't going to play enough hands to get there. The good news is that you probably won't lose $1000 either.
> I meant to say that my plan is to go in with a thousand and wong
> $25 a hand in +3 counts and leave when the count goes below 2.
I simplified this approach by Wonging in and out at +2. This will increase the number of hands played as well as your win rate somewhat.
THE GAME: 6D H17 DAS NS 5 decks dealt.
THE STRATEGY: Hi-Low system with Ill18 indeces. Flat bet $25. Wong in and out at +2. $1,000 bankroll (40 units).
THE RESULTS:
EV = $7.38 / Hour
10 Hour ROR = 0.58% (1 out of 172)
Lifetime ROR = 35.7% (1 out of 3)
Hands played per hour = 17
THE GOOD NEWS:
Your trip ROR is around 0.6%, which is pretty darn good. Unfortunately, that's all the good news I have.
THE BAD NEWS:
Don't let that small trip ROR fool you. That doesn't mean that you are going to be safe on 99.4% of your trips. That only means that you will probably not lose ALL of your money. Many of those times you will lose quite a bit of your money, just not ALL of it. As you can see from your lifetime ROR, if you continue playing with the same $1,000 bankroll you have about a 36% chance of going broke eventually. That is not good at all.
Your win rate is also tiny. Your can expect to win a meager $74 on a 10 hour weekend trip. That's a lot of time and effort for only 3 units. One of the reasons your win rate and trip ROR are so small is because you are only playing 17 hands per hour (assuming 100 hands watched per hour). You are very rarely going to be playing so the few bets that you make will not add up to much. Conversely, you chances of losing a large amount of money are also slim. You won't win much, but you won't lose much either.
SOME ALTERNATIVES:
Try using a bet spread like this:
<+2 = $0
+2 = $5
+3 = $10
+4 = $20
>+4 = $40 (2 hands of $20 each)
Your win rate will improve slightly ($7.43) and your lifetime ROR will fall to about 15.4%. You're still only winning a small amount of money, but you have a much smaller chance of going broke so you will be able to continue making money for longer.
Better yet, wait until the end of the month when you have another $1,000. With a $2,000 bankroll you could spread:
<+1 = $0
+1 = $5
+2 = $5
+3 = $15
+4 = $20
+5 = $25
>+5 = $60 (2 hands of $30 each)
EV = $9.23 / Hour
Lifetime ROR = 4.8% (1 out of 21)
Hands played per hour = 28
You will be playing more hands, winning more money, and you have a MUCH smaller chance of going broke.
There are certainly more strategies you could use, many of which would be superior to the ones I showed above, but I will leave that up to you. Some players optimize their betting in order to keep a small bet spread and avoid heat. Other players prefer a large spread and small ROR. Still others will try to maximize their EV as long as it is within an acceptable ROR.
The best advice I can give you is to wait until you have a sufficient bankroll before you continue playing. You have plenty of studying to do in the meantime. Use this time to learn about finding the optimal wagers, Kelly betting, variance, standard deviations, ROR, recommended bet spreads, and the ever present battle between EV and SD. That way, when your money is ready to play so are you.
Most importantly, PRACTICE PRACTICE PRACTICE!
-Sonny-
So if I get 20k then I can make 10 times that as long as I know all the indices.
> So if I get 20k then I can make 10 times that as long as I know all the indices.
If you 'get' $20K?
:)
Like I said, amazing.
All the indices? All 18 of them, all 22 of them, or all 170 of them?
Have you caught up to basic strategy yet?
Are you still gonna flat bet that quarter or are you considering raising your flat/Wong bet by a factor of ten also?
Have you heard a word Sonny has been trying to tell you?
> So if I get 20k then I can make 10 times that as long as I know all
> the indices.
Nope. You will get 10 times as much heat and barred 10 times as often. Different betting levels will require different bet spread, different cover plays, and different playing strategies. There have been entire books written on these subjects alone. You will need to be familiar with them before you can expect to be a successful high stakes player. Books by Ken Uston, Ian Anderson, Don Schleinger, and Stanford Wong will be all but committed to memory by the time you are ready for serious play. I'm not kidding. The best ways to end a blackjack career are by being barred and going broke. Both involve being unprepared.
Most serious players will strive for an overall ROR of around 1-5%. Anything higher is often too much of a gamble. The last thing an Advantage Player wants to do is gamble. Remember, EV is EXPECTED value. It only becomes ACTUAL value AFTER you've won it, and even then there's no guarantee that you will not lose it back. As I said, you will need to understand variance, ROR, standard deviation, and many other things before you even think about playing for high stakes.
As Sun Runner mentioned, there are about 170-180 indices. Some are worth more than others are. Some players use EV maximizing indices while others prefer risk-averse indices tailored to their bet spread. That is a whole other world for you to explore. Again, you will not be ready for serious play until you know these things.
-Sonny-
