Request for sim of KO with TCRC vs HL

No, that's not correct. To convert to TC the way I'm explaining, there is only one Initial Running Count (IRC), and it cannot be arbitrary.

Sincerely,
Cac

We have been struggling with what Initial Running Count (IRC) to use for a long time. I want to use IRC=-24, but OP wants IRC=0.  To solve this problem, let’s create a blank box for everybody to fill in.

Thank you, my simulator is correctly calculating true count for all count types then.

For unbalanced counts the user needs to select the correct Begin Count at value, for example -24 for 6 decks. Also select Running Count for KO, select True Count for TKO.

No SCORE is currently output. DI (Desirability Index) is currently output.

Thanks,

Phil

He can set Begin Count to 0 but it sounds like true count will be incorrect. It should be ok for running count, he needs to adjust his indexes though.

OP used this formula: 

x = 24 + (tc- 4) * dr.

So he used IRC=0, but shifted tc by 4. He made a simple thing more complicated. His goal was to match up to HiLo deviation indices.

I used this formula 

x = 24+TC * DR.

They are basically the same.

This is for Cac.

Do you have TKO Back Counted SCOREs for deck remaining estimated to the nearest full deck and deck remaining estimated to the nearest quarter deck or even exact.?  My prediction is that you will see very little difference in these SCORE since for KO true counts of 3 or more the TKO or KO with TCRC true count is already very accurate with decks estimated to the nearest full deck.

However for HL, if you have SCOREs for HL with decks estimated to the nearest full deck compared to decks estimated to the nearest quarter deck you should see a large difference.

If you have such sims I would be interested in them. This will prove that for the back counted shoe game using TKO or KO with TCRC it is a waste of time to estimate decks any more accurately than to the nearest full deck.

Instead of wasting time and energy on more accurate decks remaining estimates which does virtually nothing to increase the back counted TKO SCORE concentrate on using risk averse indices instead of EV indices or even concentration on adding a simple plus/minus side count to KO such as 5m7c. That is where you will see SCORE increases with very little extra work.

What does 5m7c do or help with?

Hi Phil,

I’ve tried to run a TKO sim on my cellphone. Everything came out right. Good job! This is a small step to running count, but a Great Leap Forward to score. 

Now, I will be able to provide these SCORE numbers to whoever in this forum.  Including Gronbog!

Thank you! 

If you can produce TKO SCOREs I would like to see the following SCOREs for both TKO and HL

.

Back Counted TKO SCORES and HL SCORES for 4.5 or 5 out of 6 decks dealt

My prediction is for TKO you will see very little difference between the SCORE for decks estimated to the nearest full deck as compared to decks estimated to the nearest quarter deck. So just estimate decks to the nearest full deck for TKO is fine. Also KO with TCRC estimates decks to the nearest full deck so it is fine as is also.  For HL I would expect to see a significant difference in the SCORE for estimated to full decks and quarter decks.  These are my predictions. See what your sims say.

Well, I’m a theorist. What does that mean? I care only about big questions, like, can you beat the real-world game of blackjack? Again, I do not see any point of distinguishing 1/4, 1/2 and 1 deck estimates. I understand your endeavors though. 
 

However, I can do a simulation with exact deck numbers. 

The problem is that since you still can’t calculate an optimal betting scheme, that calculated DI (Ev/Sd) turns out to be suboptimal.

Sincerely,
Cac

No, you can’t, unless you invest some money in CVData.

Sincerely,
Cac

Can you yourself run the simulations you want? I don’t know what simulators do nearest 1/4 deck estimates though.

Phil

My simulator does not calculate optimal or Kelly betting levels.
 

Blackjack Attack 3 has optimal and practical betting levels for Hi-Lo for extensive playing conditions. Those levels can possibly be used for these simulation runs?

Thanks,

Phil

I've developed my own ways of doing things. 

Cool!

I am happy with Cac sim showing the SCORE of TKO beats HL That is really all that I wanted. 

Aceside was concerned about the accuracy of TKO using decks remaining to the nearest full deck and thought estimating to the nearest full deck was not good enough

I told him that for the back counted game for true counts of 3 or more that TKO (and KO with TCRC) is very accurate with decks estimated to the nearest full deck and there is no reason to waste any time or energy in to estimated decks any better than that.

I only asked for the sims for definite proof to any doubters that my statement that you are wasting your time with TKO in estimating decks remaining more than to the nearest full deck is correct,.

For the back counted shoe game, just use KO with TCRC which involves very simple critical running count calculations instead of true count calculations or no calculations at all if you memorize TCRC and estimating decks remaining to the nearest full deck is more than adequate.

As I mentioend before, if you want real world improvements in the SCORE then leave TKO or KO with TCRC with decks estimated to the nearest full deck as is and instead use Risk Averse indices or add a simple plus minus side count such as 5m7c to KO with TCRC.

Let me just say this. I notice aceside is the only man who is willing to understand you. Other people are probably too busy to read into your stuff.
 

However, I must correct you, regarding this part. With your KO+TCRC, your TC number accuracy centers at TC= +3, +4, and +5, where you actually can use the running count to bet and play.  Just like in HiLo at TC= -1, 0, +1, you can just use the running count to bet and play. In these situations, you do not need any info of the remaining deck number. I’ve already said this in an earlier post. 

What is 5m7c and how does it help?

Thanks,

Phil

5m7c means five minus seven count. This is a plus/minus side count you can keep in your head with the KO count or use a stack of chips to keep 5m7c.  Keep 5m7c side counts instead of an Ace side count.

5m7c helps with some playing strategy variations which I will not go into here but it also helps with betting which I will address here.

Let brc = betting running count.  Then brc = KO + (1/2)*(5m7c).  In brc the fives are counted as 1.5 and the sevens as 0.5. KO had a betting efficiency (BE) of 96.5% for LS game.  brc has a BE of 99.0%. So use brc for betting the same way you would use KO for betting is you did not keep any side counts.

And I see the comment "With your KO+TCRC, your TC number accuracy centers at TC= +3, +4, and +5, where you actually can use the running count to bet and play".  This supports what I said all along. For the back counted shoe game, estimating decks remaining to the nearest full deck is more than adequate. With back counted TKO there is very little benefit in estimating decks any more accurately thanto the nearest full deck. .