Question for the Math Wizards

How would one card missing from a 6D game affect you? Let�s say you sit down at a table, the cards are out to be inspected and you notice there is a card missing from one deck.

What information do I need to figure this question out? Do rules i.e. S17, RSA... come into play as factors to consider when trying make a formula for this?

Also would the count system you use have a bearing on how much a single card missing would weigh on this formal? Would I need to figure out BC,PE and IC?

If so how would you factor in ones betting schedule for this?

Thanks for any help Illusion

count it as if it had been dealt. Specifically, if an high card is missing, start your HiLo count at -1. If a low card is missing, start the count at +1. Ignore missing 7,8, and 9s.

If you don't know what the card is, ignore it; the only effect is that your penetration is reduced by one card.

Since Edward Thorpe the effects of removal have been known for any card in a single deck.In order to get the effect of removal in a six-deck-game you simply have to divide this value by 6.
So if there is an Ace missing, your off the top disadvantage increases by 0.6/6 = 0.1%.

Francis Salmon

... it should be self evident that a missing 5 produces a similar INCREASE in advantage. A missing 4 is nearly as valuable. A missing 6 or 3 has a small effect. The other cards have too small an effect in a 6 deck shoe for you to concern yourself with.

I know you are asking this question for purely intellectual reasons, but if I knew there was a card missing from the deck, I would get as far away from that game as possible. The missing card will be discovered at the end of the shift, and everyone who came anywhere near that table will come under intense suspicion from security and gaming authorities.

If you noticed it was missing, what was it? An Ace? Point it out (I assume you mean at the initial "spread"). A 5? Play on. :) It isn't a huge advantage at all, but one five missing is an edge. An Ace (or 10) missing is worse...

Never increase your own disadvantage, is my philosophy. :)

A missing 5 is NOT advantageous to the player. It's only advantageous if you KNOW WITH CERTAINTY that the dealer doesn't have access to it. If the dealer MIGHT have access to it, it represents a bigger disadvantage than if it were present during the wash.

For that reason, your best move is to get as far away from the table as you can whenever ANY card is missing, unless you know where it REALLY is.

If the card is "MISSING" is it not a tautology that the dealer and you both are without access to it?

In a SIX deck shoe the effect of removal for a 5 is +0.11 or +0.081 for Betting Purposes (not departure from basic strategy) The first figure comes from Dr. P. Griffin's "Theory of Blackjack." The second figure was derived from Karl Janacek's S.B.A. software. It was copied from Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D.'s CardCounter.com

A single FIVE removed from a Six Deck shoe would obviously not overcome the house edge with any rule set. It would take the removal of FOUR of them.

IF ALL 24 FIVES are removed the Card Counter's edge would be simply fantastic. or roughly +6.0% depending on rules and penetration of course.

Think about it this way. The idea of ALL fives removed would be a crossroader's delight as it would give him, as a flat bettor, (who now stands on all 16's vs. 10's), an edge "off the top" of approx. +6.0% and s/he could flat bet the Table Max and derive long term profits equal to 6% of his total handle! An enormous sum. If he bets 150 hands per hour for 5 hrs. at $1,000 each he would expect to earn something approaching $45,000 per session!

Remember the 5's are the ONLY card that turn ALL dealer stiffs (12-16) into made hands.

So I sat down trying to figuer out, how I would figuer this out.

Does this make sense?

I am using high/low. If the card missing was a "10" it gives me -1 to start.(I would point out a "10" card missing) On a game that starts with -.40% would smiply go:

One "10" = 1/6 of +1TC at shuffle
1/6 = 0.166666666
+1TC=.50%
0.166666666 x 0.50 = 0.083333333

So my game would realy be -.4083333333 at the shuffle

Now if the card missing was a +1 the game would be -0.316666666 at shuffle?

Does this work or is there more to it that this?

was that he was thinking that it could be somehow "held out" by the dealer, to deal when he needs it the most... That was the only explanation I could think of for the way his response was worded...

....you were on a Mindplay table you could have been protected from the missing card. After all thats what Mindplay is all about "Protecting the players" YA RIGHT!!! SM

... -0.483333... with your assumptions, which are close enough.

ETF

I am using high/low. If the card missing was a "10" it gives me -1 to start.(I would point out a "10" card missing) On a game that starts with -.40% would smiply go:

One "10" = 1/6 of +1TC at shuffle
1/6 = 0.166666666
+1TC=.50%
0.166666666 x 0.50 = 0.083333333

So my game would realy be -.4083333333 at the shuffle

Now if the card missing was a +1 the game would be -0.316666666 at shuffle?

Does this work or is there more to it that this?

Just because YOU think it's missing doesn't mean it really is. :)

Obviously, the idea of a dealer (or the casino) doing this in a 6-deck game is extremely remote.

But the 5 could always show up at the table next to yours.

Don't forget "Beat the Dealer". He mentioned "fishy shoes" there. :)

Suppose you have a two-deck game, using an automatic shuffler, so that you play with two decks while the other two decks are being shuffled. What would be the overall effect if you removed an Ace from one set and put it in the other set. No other changes. If you play for an extended period would it have any positive or negative effect overall, particularly if you didn't know it had happened? Same question but now let's move a 5.

Logic says that if you play for a long while, this won't matter, but statistics is an odd animal and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it did make a difference...

gorilla player,

With the "extra" 5 in the 105-card pack, the RC off the top is -1, but you of course think it is zero. Thus, for the whole 105-card pack your RC will be one too high.

Conversely, the 103-card pack has a RC of +1 off the top, but you still think it is zero. Thus, for the whole 103-card pack you RC will be one too low.

If, instead of a 5, an Ace gets transferred from one pack to the other, then your RC will still be off by one, but this time in the opposite direction: your RC will be one too low on the 105-card pack, and one too high on the 103-card pack.

Granted, having a RC off by one will not matter a great deal (as per Vancura and Fuchs in Knockout Blackjack), but any effect it does have will be to make your play slightly less optimal. However, transferring that Ace will REALLY wreak havoc on my Ace side count ;-)

Dog Hand

Once in a great while, a card WILL be missing all day. And the fact of the matter is, its usually an Ace and can go easily undetected. The only time the cards are inspected at our casino is at the beginning of the day, and sorted at the end of the day. Although it is extremely rare, we have had an ace missing when we sort cards at the end of the day.

The reason for the Ace most of the time is simply because its the first card and it just may get left in the box.

The reason for the Ace most of the time is simply because it's the first card and it just may get left in the box.

How could the dealer who inspects the deck(s)when they're first put into play not notice a missing Ace? I would hope that such negligence results in the dealer's termination. Every player who played at that table was cheated, though probably unintentionally.

Is any effort made to contact the players whose action was recorded during the day and offer a return of their losses?

Would a report be made to the gaming authorities of the short deck?

Yes...the casino gets fined big time. Its not just the dealer inspecting the cards, the floor and Pit manager looks at them. Not too long ago I heard, though don't believe much, there was an entire suit of cards missing. Now, this wouldn't change your odds at all because the value of equally available cards is there, but most people assume the cards are there and it only takes one time to let your guard down and thats when it happens.

It could be also that a player takes the card from the table. We have had it happen where a player on first base got a BJ. The dealer paid it but left the cards there instead of picking them up right away and the player was caught by surviellance grabbing the cards off the table while the dealer was looking at third base to play his hand. So cards CAN but rarely disappear in that manner.

Now, don't go getting paranoid about missing cards. Its one in a million it may happen. Just keep playing the game and if you get a sour game, then get up and leave.