I have $1575, bet first. Two players have $1600 each. $10-$500. Last hand. One winner. We all bet $500 and the dealer got BJ, but I think I should have bet $400 hoping they both would bet the $500. Then I have the loose, loose, loose to win or the double and all win to win. Of course, if they both matched my bet, no help for no max bet, but aren't they both forced into the max bet matching each other?
At this point you are not going to get ahead of them if they win the next hand with a $500 max bet. The chances of any hand beating a dealer are less than half, so they will probably lose the next hand. The reason I suggest $270 is if you all lose, which is what happened, then you would be $205 ahead of them, making you the winner. Another thing is, that if you had a double-down hand, you would have a $540 bet up. This is important because all three of you can win and you would be the winner with the highest BR afterwards. I have seen too many people lose the opportunity to make a gain because their loss was too high trying to gain ground.
A lot of tournaments come down to the last hand. How you play depends on whether you are ahead or not. Most everyone max bets the last round. If they have a higher bank than you, plan for their loss to be what makes you win and your loss to be low enough to still get ahead. If I'm behind on the last round, I will bet half of the max bet plus the difference between the winners BR and mine. If I am ahead, I will wager the difference between their [BR + $500] and my BR plus $10. E.G., I have $2000 and next has $1600, I assume his max bet will put him ahead of me at $2100. So if he wins, I need to win $110 to stay ahead of him.
You don't get much time between rounds to do the math and come up with the correct bet, so you have to have some formulas worked out beforehand and use the decision time given during rounds to calculate your next bet. Most tournaments give you thirty seconds to make a play decision. I use the full time not to make a play decision but to determine the next wager.
If $1575 bets the $270 and the two $1600's match the bet, the situation is the same as betting all $500. Right? So, what does the first $1600 bet? the last? If first 1600 bets the $500, what does last do? If $270, what does last do? A tie is played off with five hands continued between tied players.
If $1575 bets the $270 and the two $1600's match the bet, the situation is the same as betting all $500. Right?
You are right about all three betting the 270. However, the players with $1600 are most threatened with defeat by each other because they are tied for first. Most of the time, they figure they can win if they outbet you on the last round but they probably aren't worried about you but they are most likely worried about each other.
So, what does the first $1600 bet?
The first $1600 player is at a disadvantage because he can be outbet by the second player with $1600 unless he bets the max. So his best chance is to bet the max to make sure the other player can't gain ground in the event of his win.
The last?
The second $1600 player should outbet the first player with $1600 but both should wager at least $250 to stay ahead of player with $1575 if he wins.
If first 1600 bets the $500, what does last do?
He should bet $500 as well lest he be knocked out by the other player's win.
If $270, what does last do?
Last should bet $275. He will beat the other 2 if he wins the next hand. Any less and he can be beat by a win.
The easiest way I can see to hold any lead with minimal risk of being beaten by another player is to try to establish a lead difference which is equal to (max bet + (2 x min bet)). This will allow you to bet the minimum on the last hand and keep lead even if you lose and they win the max bet. E.G., you have a lead of $520 in this scenario and you wager $10 and 2nd pl. wagers $500. You would win by at least $10 if you lose and he wins.
As you can see, a good way to play tournaments is to try to meet certain goals along the way. It's easiest to work out your goals backward. Goal one is to be ahead prior to last hand by the formula suggested above. Also, you should know the average tournament winner's BR so you can try to get your BR as close to that figure by about 4-5 hands PRIOR to the end of tournament. If you achieve that goal, then you can play the last few hands according to the other players BR. This gives you a few hands to try to outsmart the other players, especially when you have the opportunity to wager last.
