Progressive Blackjack

Well I found more out about the set bet the casino will be offering that at play at. It's going to be offered on a 6 deck shoe game.

4 red or black aces = 100% (meter starts at $5000) / 1 in 391236
4 aces = $2000 / 1 in 40193
3 suited aces = $1000 / 1 in 67249
3 unsuited aces = $100 / 1 in 2767
2 suited aces = $30 / 1 in 870
2 unsuited aces = $15 / 1 in 242
1 ace = $3 / 1 in 14

Only your first four cards count. Splitting still counts, no re-spilting of aces.

Are my odds correct for 6 decks? I know this is a bad bet, but when is it a good bet if ever? How high would the progressive meter need to be to justify going in on it? Also say your counting Hi-low with a ace side count, what would if ever the ratio of aces to non-aces need be to justify playing the progressive?

Not a game I am planning on playing but if I find myself late one morning and the progressive tables are the only ones open would like to have any advantage I can. Any links/info appreciated.

Well I found more out about the set bet the casino will be offering that at play at. It's going to be offered on a 6 deck shoe game.

4 red or black aces = 100% (meter starts at $5000) / 1 in 391236
4 aces = $2000 / 1 in 40193
3 suited aces = $1000 / 1 in 67249
3 unsuited aces = $100 / 1 in 2767
2 suited aces = $30 / 1 in 870
2 unsuited aces = $15 / 1 in 242
1 ace = $3 / 1 in 14

My numbers are slighlty different than yours:

4 red or black: 1/391,191
4 aces: 1/40,191
3 suited: 1/67,236
3 unsuited: 1/2,767
2 suited: 1/870
2 unsuited: 1/242
1 ace: 1/14

Only your first four cards count. Splitting still counts, no re-spilting of aces.

I think you mistated this. If you get a 2,3,4,A, it doesn't count as an ace.

Are my odds correct for 6 decks?

See above.

I know this is a bad bet, but when is it a good bet if ever? How high would the progressive meter need to be to justify going in on it?

The jackpot would have to be >= $230,416. One comment though, without the jackpot, the EV of making a $1 bet is $0.41. Consider that you will hit the jackpot once every 4000 hours of play. Considering the variance, IMHO, you would be wasting your money even if you have the advantage.

Also say your counting Hi-low with a ace side count, what would if ever the ratio of aces to non-aces need be to justify playing the progressive?

Good question, if I have time, I'll run a calculation (or a sim if necessary). Don't get your hopes up.

If you go through 1/6 decks without an ace and the jackpot is $79,000, your advantage is +0.02%. If the jackpot is $100,000, the advantage is +11.20%. However, the odds of getting the jackpot are 1/187,923 and it accounts for 40-50% of the EV.

Now, if you went though 2/6 decks without an ace, you would have advantage of +0.31% with a jackpot of only $5000. In this case, the jackpot accounts for only 6% of the ev and odds of getting it are 1/ 76,526 hands.

Note that I have seen the jackpot on this sidebet at over $70,000.