for 8 years and that's all bs. Pure bs. If you're flipping a coin and you're getting $101 for a win and paying $99 for a loss you'd be an idiot to quit unless your thumb fell off. That would be the only compelling reason.
Self-weighting gambling strategies are those in which many plays are made for approximately same size of bets (or a small bet spread of 2:1), while successful non-self-weighting strategies attempt to identify where the gambler has no risk on the next bet and then to take advantage of it (like betting all the way to the table limit while on a wining streak and the count is positive) This type of betting would never be possible with the classic card counting betting strategy.
I have said in another thread, a player who bets boldly even at a bad game has a better chance of coming out ahead with very large profits than one who bets optimally for the long run and appropriately even at a good game (i.e. betting using TC * unit in card counting in a great game). In other words, bold play is more important than knowing what bets are good or bad. Of course, a bold player will not play as long, and may not have as much "fun." But one should concentrate on winning, not entertainment and math mastery of the game.
I would argue that blackjack can be played in a very non-self-weighting mode. This means that it is highly possible and probable (and we all know this from our experience) for the dealer to have long periods of time where she breaks more than expected and long periods of time where she always seems to draw out on the players. And these periods happen completely at random. But if the player is capable to capitalize and the long streaks when the dealer is breaking by betting all the way to the table limit, then it is absolutely possible to extract large sums of money from this game while the house edge will not be able to overcome you because of the non-self-weighting effect of this very large bets.
What is the most important gambling concept that there is? Which concept separates the winners from the losers? What is the one idea that permeates all successful thinking and theorizing on the subject of gambling? In my opinion, it is the little-known statistical concept of self-weighting versus non-self-weighting gambling experiences.
A self-weighting gambling experience is when your expectation is the same from play to play. But what does that mean, and why is it so important? To answer these questions, let's start with a simple example.
Suppose you make a trip to Las Vegas, walk up to a BJ table, and start playing using a valid card system with about 40 index numbers while betting flat. You will have about 11.5% StDev per hour on your action. You do this for 100 hands, and when you are ahead during this hour just a couple chips then suddenly after the next winning hand on positive or zero count you start parleying your previous win and put it into action. As long as you win, let�s say for the next 3 or 4 hands, you keep parleying until you finally lose the last bet. Now how many hands have you played? Well, there are two answers, both correct. The mathematicians will say 104, but the statisticians will say 3 or 4 times simply because your results are all clustered around the 3 or 4 big bets. Notice, that during the first 100 hands, we were looking at a self-weighting gambling experience. But after we start parley the bets we had a very non-self-weighting gambling experience. Now, even if you lose right after you start parlaying after the hand number 101 you will be back to even and start over to look for the next opportunity. But I have to stress here the importance of you being capable to hold the game around even for long periods of time. I for myself am capable to hold a single or double deck game at even for long periods of time while waiting for the opportunity to strike. I will never put my bankroll in danger of betting large bets regardless of the count. Even is the TC is plus 10 I do not care for the 4% edge on the next hand if I have to risk $500 for the expectation of making $20. I will make many times $20 without any risk when the opportunity arrives.
Why are all successful players use the non-self-weighting tactic? It should be obvious that the expert player even though he does not play as many hands as his self-weighting counterpart (the regular card counter that bets by the TC or the flat bettor that is doom to lose ), the expert still puts about the same amount of money in action while he is playing less hands for bigger profits. He is playing proficiently. Proficiency is a circumscribed activity in the general practice of a professional in one or more of its specialties. The relationship between a body of knowledge and a set of skills related to achieving a final goal in the shortest possible time represents the most critical aspect of proficiency.
Now, Proficient performance in BJ is what a player need to know and do in order to have a reasonable opportunity for success in his task related to the skills/knowledge of making money in this game by all standards in the shorter possible period of time.
By the way, it doesn't matter what kind of BJ game it is. The expert players, who consistently take home the money, all follow non-self-weighting strategies.
Remember, the more self-weighting your play is, the poorer player you are. This is why I argue that an expert player, who follows non-self-weighting strategies, can easily beat these games. The non-self-weighting player waits until he has the best of it and then takes maximum advantage of the situation. That is, he will make as big a bet as possible while his bankroll is out of risk. In addition, following a non-self-weighting strategy has the statistical effect of decreasing the overall sample size.
Puiu
PS: Remember this:
�When preparation and knowledge meets opportunity in a combination of events and circumstances, then sometimes the obvious can be a little hard to see. ----- Puiu 7/19/02"
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity.
- John Wooden, former UCLA basketball coach
"The non-self-weighting player waits until he has the best of it and then takes maximum advantage of the situation. That is, he will make as big a bet as possible while his bankroll is out of risk."
What the fuck do you mean, "while his bankroll is out of risk"? Wait, don't tell me, let me guess: it's when his bankroll is safe from losing streaks. Right?
Back to the world of dreams.
..And despite all the delirious verbiage and your boring and misinformed use of Mason Malmuth's text, you still haven't answered us the very simple question that was posed to you: You flip a coin where you have an advantage, since you get paid more when you win than you pay out when you lose. You lose 13 bets in a row. Why on earth should you stop from playing?? Why should you "end the losing session" and come back and play tomorrow the same game?
Professional bullshit is the only reason.
Cyrus, I am not argue with you because I know from facts that you have no authority and the required knowledge whatsoever to even daydream about blackjack.
Having said that, I will talk now to people that want to find out things that they been deprived according to the basic strategy.
Now, I think StDev should be taken more seriously than EV. Generally I would trust StDev estimates more than I would EV estimates. Of course, knowing StDev without having a handle on EV is only useful if you assume you are approximately a break even player and want an estimate on what game level you can afford to spend your money on to obtain enough hours of play. But for a winning player I think the EV is going to be much more difficult to pin down to usable accuracy than the StDev.
For example in a classic Single Deck S17, DAS, DOA
EV and Variance:
EV=+0.17611141% Variance=1.3418434
However, there are many hands in Basic Strategy where a large bankroll is required to justify the "correct" basic strategy play. My example here will deal with one of the �imperfect� moves in BS and I will not reveal any other key moves, so please don�t ask for.
That is the classic Ace-2 vs. 5 when the �correct� play according to BS is to double down.
DOUBLE EV=+13.635987% Variance=3.8026169 for a Bank =49,587 units
HIT EV=+13.633091% Variance=0.9305211 for a Bank = 1,000 units
Puiu, you are, unfortunately, inventing the wheel and at the same time completely misunderstanding its use!
"I think StDev should be taken more seriously than EV. Generally I would trust StDev estimates more than I would EV estimates. Of course, knowing StDev without having a handle on EV is only useful if ... [blah blah blah]."
You realy, really should bone up on Risk. Do your homework! It appears to me that your are Risk Averse averse. Want me to give you a few links to read up?
"I am not argue with you because I know from facts that you have no authority and the required knowledge whatsoever to even daydream about blackjack."
Uh oh. You've been talking to Little Big John again. (Inside joke.)
or forth shot at a "winning hand". Sense over GREED.
101 for a win and 99 for a loss...say 60 hands per hour....you make $120 per/hr for table time, but how long can you concentrate per day? do you have a large enough bankroll to play 100 a hand? 99.995 of us don't
so if you are a green chipper, multiply by 1/4 and you are down to $30 an hour for pure table time....then you need to consider travel time and expenses....and you have no health benifits....and a lot of people who do not love playing bj may find that giving up the game for a while is advisible...if you played for 8 years, im sure that itch will return and you will find your way back to the tables refreshed and hopefuly ready to win.
So actually I can turn your argument on its head, that is, if you are really smart, possible finding another vocation would be more rewarding for your cognitive abilities. We all are entitled to our opinion and this is simply mine, we can agree to disagree. :)
a coin flip, didn't I?
I currently play. Learn to read before you "turn arguments on their head".
Did you know that if Bill Gates sees a $100 bill on the ground he ACTUALY LOSES money by bending over to pick it up....
Learn to read...you see instead of watching the coin flip you could use your human capital in another accord....for example writing a book @ 1 page per hour with 250 total pages and with royalities making over a million off the book...geee....one would make $4,000/hr plus the perks of being famous.
I totally understand what you are saying ...can't you understand what I said??? guess not ...better stick to your BS and varations thereof...
Puiu,
So when you win a hand and then you let it ride. That money you consider not part of your bankroll?. You can risk it more easily because you won it? And if you lose it then you have lost nothing your back to where you started ?. When does it become yours.? When does it become valuable enough to you to apply money management? I just want to let the new people learning to count know that all of these concepts are completely against the established concepts of correct money management and sucessful long term advantage play.
I sometimes wonder if Puiu isn't really a shill for the gaming industry here to thwart the efforts of possible future advantage players. Why else wouldn't someone that never loses and can extract huge amounts from casinos be in one playeying or selling his secret winning system for huge sums of money.
Novice Advantage players see Puiu for what he is a Gambler that exaggerates his winning and forgets his losses. Oh my that just sounds like a typical gambler doesn't it.
MT did you know that the average human has just less than one breast and slightly less than one testicle. Like Truman said there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Do you think that just because Bill gates has a periods in his life made over a thousand dollars a minute that he wouldn't pick up a hundred dollar bill that he happened to walk upon. Yes a best selling book maight make the author thousands of dollars a word, but did you know that all of the books written everywhere average less value than the value of the paper they are typed on.We have seen the lives of the famous actor but did you know that all actors in aggregate make like $12 an hour. With statistics like all mathematics you have to understand the question you are asking. yes I understand that Puiu makes hundreds of dollars an hour and never loses but for us advantage players without his vast knowledge of non-self weighted systems in the aggregate make much less.
I simply asserted that playing BJ for SOME people may not be advisable EVEN if there is a POSITIVE EXPECTATION.
two words: OPPORTUNITY COST
I am not agruing AVERAGES with you, I simply replied to a previous post that stated, "If you're flipping a coin and you're getting $101 for a win and paying $99 for a loss you'd be an idiot to quit unless your thumb fell off."
Again please read what I am responding to prior to lamebasting me. You see, some people can employ their human capital in other ways to reap a greater return, albiet with a significantly lower risk variance. OK?
just here to hear himself talk.
