Problem w/ Index Numbers

I purchased Proffesional Blackjack a few months ago and since then have learned nearly every index number, well at least the important ones. For the most part I think it works very well, but I have a problem with some of the numbers. Specifically for hard 14's, 15's, and 16's. For example; if the TC is +3 and I have a hard 14,15,or 16 against a 7 what do I do? The book says to hit no matter what the count. You know your gonna bust without a doubt in your mind so you do it anyways and $#!+, you busted your hand. Now the dealer turns over a nine and busts. Every player at the table wins except you. It seems to me that in these instances it would be better to stand and hope the dealer busts. Any comments?

There are a great number of hands that, no matter how you play them, you are facing a losing propostion either way. The key is to play the correct basic strategy so that you'll lose less often with these particular hands.

As an example, if one stands on the 14 vs. 7, one would lose about 73% of the time but is one hits, he would lose about 64% of the time. Certainly it would be preferable to take the latter choice each and every time.

May you make the correct choice and not be worried about busting these stiff hands as they will occur frequently.

Telescopic

Simple, Don't take a hit when you think and feel that the bust card is about to hammer you over the head. What's the point of busting a 14 vs. 7 when if you probably stand on 14 the dealer's 7 would go bust instead?

Oil

Obviously your chances of busting don't depend very much on what the dealer's upcard is -- more on what the count is. The real question is what are your chances of beating the dealer if you don't bust. If the dealer has a 7 showing and you don't bust then you'll probably beat him, but if he has a 10 showing (especially in high count situations) then your chances of beating him are less. This is why you always hit a 16 when the dealer shows a 7, but it only takes a slightly positive deck to stand on 16 vs a dealer 10.

There ARE index numbers for hard 14,15,16 vs 7 where you will stand if the TC is above those numbers but they're quite high. For Silver Fox count the numbers are:

16 vs 7 : +8.5
15 vs 7 : +11
14 vs 7 : +14.25

>Simple, Don't take a hit when you think and feel that the bust card >is about to hammer you over the head.
When you start "thinking and feeling" about what card is coming next then you are just another ploppy.
Stick to the index numbers they are the mathematically correct way to play.
Just think in terms of EV and you will understand.
Such as you would think 17 v dealers 5 is pretty good.Wrong you will lose 4.5% of your bet on this.

What you say I'm wrong?

People need oils and vaselines! Don't they?

Oil

"Such as you would think 17 v dealers 5 is pretty good.Wrong you will lose 4.5% of your bet on this."

I thought dealer upcard 5 gives the player the biggest advantage. Where did you get the negative ev from? Griffin? Wong? Thorp?

Driller stated: "Obviously your chances of busting don't depend very much on what the dealer upcard is -- more on what the count is."

This is incorrect for the plays initially discussed 14, 14, & 16 vs. 7. In fact, the determination of the correct play, to hit, is much, much, more dependent on the dealers upcard than the count as the index numbers for these plays are very high. To even make the departures for these plays when the high counts are reached would really only result in miniscule gains, especially for multi-deck games.

Certainly, as you had stated, the 16 vs. 10 is indeed a close play and much, much more sensitive to the count. It is in fact one of the top three deviations from basic to be made. Nonetheless, the 16 vs. 10 is an even bigger loser than the three plays previously mentioned.

Telescopic

Soy Feo stated: "I though dealer upcard 5 gives the player the biggest advantage."

I think many people have the mistaken assumption that because the dealer will bust more with the five upcard, about 43% of the time, that most of the players advantage is created by the dealers upcard. In fact, there are many hands where the player will be at a disadvantage against a dealer five upcard even when making the correct play.

Actually, most of the players advantage and winnings are created primarily through two hands; a natural (blackjack), and 10,10.

Telescopic

...by an OPEC representative stationed in NY, who sometimes posts here, about the correlation between penetration and naturals (blondes).

Try Snake Oil 'stead.

Tracking 6 tables at the same time, while calculating the exact landing point on the roulette wheel in your mind, by the way, what is AWF (average wheel friction) for the wheels in the Crown? So I can plug it into my 1/2at^2.

Saw you last week with your 6 friends at the carribean stud table, signaling cards to each other while you calculate the optimal strategy in your head! Heard you're taking your team to Vegas for the Pai gow? Oh, I love to see you guys play.

Or maybe you're not Will after all?