pro gambling

I remember your interview with Robert.V.Lux and you said you are a professional gambler and also said that you live in Dublin,Ireland.
Now you can not make money playing BJ or baccarat in dublin as the 3 or 4 small casinos have tiny limits,(i have been there on holidays and the rules also suck)you dont play poker(only 1 card room in dublin anyway),you dont back horses,you are not a sports handicapper.So it seems that the only thing left is internet casinos and bonus hustling.

Can you call this professional gambling?

John's been down on his luck lately. Like most of the card counters here!!

But luck is not part of the equation in card counting is it??

The Mann

I have no idea what John May does in terms of gambling, but if one can make a living hustling bonuses, why not call him a professional gambler? He is seeking out and finding advantages in the world of gaming. It doesn't have to happen in a brick and mortar casino.

he happens to be staying in Ireland, does that mean he is restricted to only playing there? Or maybe the low stakes are not a factor as he is only doing research & development? Your comments seem biased..

Please use a consistent alias before posting this type of question as the implication is that you are trolling. That said, I don't mind answering this one.

Now you can not make money playing BJ or baccarat in dublin as the 3 or 4 small casinos have tiny limits,(i have been there on holidays and the rules also suck)you dont play poker(only 1 card room in dublin anyway),you dont back horses

The casinos in Ireland do suck in terms of limits but there are opportunities for the sophisticated player. Table limits are not a great problem if you can obtain a very high return on investment. Btw there are casinos outside Dublin.

In any case I spend a lot of time travelling. I could quite easily live on the proceeds of my trips to mainland Europe & elsewhere. London is a few hours away by plane and the cost is neglible.

you dont back horses,you are not a sports handicapper.

Handicapping is not neccessary to beat sports, the focus of my sports betting is on exploiting pricing inefficencies by using methods such as arbitrage . I have access to sports betting markets US bettors do not which offer significantly better value than bookmaking operations, such as betting exchanges (eg betfair.com) and spread betting firms. That gives me a far superior return to card counting or hole-card play or whatever, and no heat either.

So it seems that the only thing left is internet casinos and bonus hustling.

Can you call this professional gambling?

I go where the money is. If I can make most money betting on tiddlywinks I'd do that.
If you have some sentimental attachment to cards and dealers and the green baize of Nevada, fine, you are not alone. However, I just want the money.

Can you recommend any books on spread betting as i am not really sure how to exploit it,i think jack black has one should i get it?
Also i have an account with betfair,and yes they seem to have better prices than the usual crowd how do i exploit this?

...got me interested in gambling in the first place. I have often said his "money-spinners" is the most beautifully written piece of gambling literature in existence. His sports stuff is not quite as good, often wasting time with introductory material the spread firms themselves can give you for free, but when he does discuss advantage play it blows your socks off. His ability to discover arbitrage opportunities in correlated markets borders on the supernatural. So, yes, get it.

A problem with spread betting: you need to give the SFA a ton of personal financial info to get a legal account. You may think: well screw that, in which case you only have access to spread betting through the exchanges.

Also i have an account with betfair,and yes they seem to have better prices than the usual crowd how do i exploit this?

Simply post an outrageous price and hope someone lays it (or vice versa). Sounds ridiculously simple I know, but very simple techniques often yield big advantages. Once someone has taken the price you can lay it off with the same exchange. The normal sports bettors rule which states you shouldn't hedge a bet, since this doubles commission, doesn't apply since exchanges only charge commission on net profit.

Occassionally your outrageous price will be snapped up by a sharp handicapper and you won't be able to hedge. Therefore it helps if you have a little handicapping skill and/or can keep an eye on the bookmakers at betbrain.com. But this won't wipe out your edge, it will just create problems with your liability, bet conservatively according to your estimated edge (eg one-quarter kelly, adjusting for uneven payoffs) and you should be okay.

Simply post an outrageous price and hope someone lays it (or vice versa). Sounds ridiculously simple I know, but very simple techniques often yield big advantages. Once someone has taken the price you can lay it off with the same exchange. The normal sports bettors rule which states you shouldn't hedge a bet, since this doubles commission, doesn't apply since exchanges only charge commission on net profit.

So as an example say i ask for a price of 5.2 for chelsea tomorrow,if it is taken i then lay chelsea at lower odds maybe 4.9,is this how i do it?

But usually the odds for laying are higher than those for backing?arent they?

Or could i just ask for a high price and try to back the other team and draw at other sites hoping to get an arbitage?

So as an example say i ask for a price of 5.2 for chelsea tomorrow,if it is taken i then lay chelsea at lower odds maybe 4.9,is this how i do it?

Pretty much.

But usually the odds for laying are higher than those for backing?arent they?

For the market to be efficent this has to be the case at any given time, but over the course of the build-up to match time there will be fluctuations in both directions. Take a look at the charts betfair provide on each market to get an idea of the type of behaviour you get with these markets. Ideally you want a market which stabilizes around a particular price with layers and backers drawing evenly from a pool of adjacent prices.

Or could i just ask for a high price and try to back the other team and draw at other sites hoping to get an arbitage?

Doesn't matter how you do it as long as you can get a hedge! Precisely which strategy is most successful you will pick up as you go along. Principally you'll notice Chelsea, Man U etc all have a loyal following and the true value tends to be in backing the opposition. That by itself is enough information to profit consistently.

John's been down on his luck lately. Like most of the card counters here!!

I've been doing quite well, thankyou.

But luck is not part of the equation in card counting is it??

Its been many years since my gambling income came chiefly from card counting.

Principally you'll notice Chelsea, Man U etc all have a loyal following and the true value tends to be in backing the opposition. That by itself is enough information to profit consistently.

Do you mean that the followers will all bet on their team Bringing down the price and the bookies will have to lenghten the other teams price to attract bets?

Is this why the value bets in betbrain are usually the underdogs?

What do you think of mainly betting on value bets will this return a profit in the long run.

Or is it better to go with arbs,wont you need a large bankroll for arbs as they usually are just 1-2%

Do you mean that the followers will all bet on their team Bringing down the price and the bookies will have to lenghten the other teams price to attract bets?

Is this why the value bets in betbrain are usually the underdogs?

Yes and yes.

What do you think of mainly betting on value bets will this return a profit in the long run.

Possibly, this is one thing I keep on not having time to study. It shouldn't take too long to do all the data mining but I haven't as yet. The one chap I know who does punt the valuebets religously was about 40 units up, but was yet to approach the long run.

Or is it better to go with arbs,wont you need a large bankroll for arbs as they usually are just 1-2%

A couple of betbrain bookies go bust every year. That tends to make the whole arb concept negative expectation.

A couple of betbrain bookies go bust every year. That tends to make the whole arb concept negative expectation.

I am a bit confused now,isnt backing at a high price and then trying to lay it off somewhere else the same as getting an arb.

Also have you ever seen discrepancies between spread betting where one books sell is higher than anothers buy?I have just seen sportspreads buy for corners in the MAN U match is 11.5 and betfairs sell is 11.4.So if you could ask for a price of sell at betfair at 11.6 then you would win .1 of the stake no matter what.

Have you ever tried this?

"Also i have an account with betfair,and yes they seem to have better prices than the usual crowd how do i exploit this?"

Simply post an outrageous price and hope someone lays it (or vice versa). Sounds ridiculously simple I know, but very simple techniques often yield big advantages. Once someone has taken the price you can lay it off with the same exchange. The normal sports bettors rule which states you shouldn't hedge a bet, since this doubles commission, doesn't apply since exchanges only charge commission on net profit.

What is the max bet at betfair? I thought it was rather low, and you always need some moron to bite on your bet. Or if the line moves, you have your bet hanging out there when it is no longer good for you. So this actually takes a bit of work.

And where did you come up with that rule? Hedging properly decreases risk and increases EV. Unless you have the infinite bankroll...

Math Boy

He would not do that well in tournaments today. Anthony Curtis at the "Las Vegas Advisor" sed so!!

What is the max bet at betfair?

That would be determined by the public. I'm not sure what the point of an artificial limit imposed by an exchange would be. Either way, liquidity would tend to determine the actual limit.

I thought it was rather low, and you always need some moron to bite on your bet. Or if the line moves, you have your bet hanging out there when it is no longer good for you. So this actually takes a bit of work.

Not sure what you mean by rather low. Trading 60 thousand dollars eqv or so per gameday is usually possible. For big events you could trade 10x that action. I am not sure when you reviewed betfair.com that you understood bets could be traded in the running. The volume of trades you can make are extraordinary with in-running betting-you may be able to make as many bets as a traditional NFL handicapper could make in a year during the course of one 90-minute soccer game.

You are right that line movements are a problem. However, naturally you don't need to make a profit on every trade, if you consistently bet on deviant lines you should profit consistently with minimal risk.

And where did you come up with that rule? Hedging properly decreases risk and increases EV. Unless you have the infinite bankroll...

I know, the discussion wasn't taking place at that level. I've seen this rule mentioned in several places (Black and Sklansky offhand). The rule states that you should not hedge just for the sake of it, since you will increase effective vigorish. The rule is addressed to those who hedge mindlessly rather than "properly".
Obviously a handicapper can determine when a hedge is desireable ie the hedge bet may be positive EV.
A further complexity: it may be desireable even to hedge with a negative expectation wager if this increases bankroll growth.

I am a bit confused now,isnt backing at a high price and then trying to lay it off somewhere else the same as getting an arb.

It depends if new information has been provided. If you bet on a team and they go a goal up, and you lay off the bet elsewhere I'd call that a hedge rather than an arb. You had no "lock", circumstances just changed in your favour and you hedged.

Also have you ever seen discrepancies between spread betting where one books sell is higher than anothers buy?I have just seen sportspreads buy for corners in the MAN U match is 11.5 and betfairs sell is 11.4.So if you could ask for a price of sell at betfair at 11.6 then you would win .1 of the stake no matter what.

Have you ever tried this?

Yes, but remember the commission! You will get judged full commission, not net commission, by betting with both companies. In the above example you'd make a net loss when you factor in the commission.
The formulas are a bit complex when it comes spread betting. You may find it impractical. You need a conversion chart in front of you so you can determine whether a post-commission arb actually exists or not.

This is getting a bit off-topic. Maybe any further posts should be moved to SSB or the CCCafe.

Not sure what you mean by rather low. Trading 60 thousand dollars eqv or so per gameday is usually possible. For big events you could trade 10x that action. I am not sure when you reviewed betfair.com that you understood bets could be traded in the running. The volume of trades you can make are extraordinary with in-running betting-you may be able to make as many bets as a traditional NFL handicapper could make in a year during the course of one 90-minute soccer game.

You are right that line movements are a problem. However, naturally you don't need to make a profit on every trade, if you consistently bet on deviant lines you should profit consistently with minimal risk.

What I mean by rather low is that if you are sharpshooting deviant lines other people put up, the limits those indivuals usually accept are in the neighborhood of $50-$100. If that.

You are saying that you trade $60K per gameday, and are leaving $540K in action on the table. And that you are fast enough to take all your bets off the table when someone scores a goal or there is a significant penalty and the line moves dramatically, totally screwing you. And this is not on a single game, but on a single gameDAY. So you are watching ~20 simulatneous games with your finger on the clicker of all your bets so you don't get screwed in a few tenths of a second window to remove your bet before someone with a quicker sattelite feed takes you.

Either that or you accept $60K of action on deviant lines before they are snapped up by the thousands of people looking at the site. Either I have an incredibly bad perception of how bet exchanges actually work, or this all seems rather far fetched. If you were able to put $60K in action a day, every time you open your mouth about betfair you are increasing your competition.

Math Boy

What I mean by rather low is that if you are sharpshooting deviant lines other people put up, the limits those indivuals usually accept are in the neighborhood of $50-$100. If that.

Well, as I write this I am looking at Fulham vs Middlesbrough (hardly a glamour tie likely to attract big action). Over 700,000 pounds sterling, or pretty close to a million dollars, has been traded on that match. If you have a very sophisticated information network, then I don't see why its unreasonable to say you could make $60K of those trades on deviant lines. I was really being conservative-that is one match.
In addition, I don't agree with your hypothesis about deviant lines others put up. The best deviant lines come from bookmakers hedging liabilities.

You are saying that you trade $60K per gameday, and are leaving $540K in action on the table. And that you are fast enough to take all your bets off the table when someone scores a goal or there is a significant penalty and the line moves dramatically, totally screwing you. And this is not on a single game, but on a single gameDAY. So you are watching ~20 simulatneous games with your finger on the clicker of all your bets so you don't get screwed in a few tenths of a second window to remove your bet before someone with a quicker sattelite feed takes you.

Yes, but most people don't have quicker feeds than you. This works to your advantage not against you. You are doing most of the screwing.
In addition very few people know the appropriate stats. I can tell you the given chance of a specific team scoring on a specific ground from a corner for example, using formulas constantly updated in the running. Very few people are approaching the trading with that kind of approach.

If you were able to put $60K in action a day, every time you open your mouth about betfair you are increasing your competition.

We've discussed the information issue before. The world is not after my secrets or yours, regardless of how lucrative they may be for you personally. And releasing information doesn't always degrade an opportunity-it may enhance it.
In any case, betfair isn't exactly a small operation. Any one who bets regularly in Europe knows about them.

And yes, the whole thing does seem far fetched, but then you subscribed to many notions that seemed far fetched to me such as the Apache business-its relative I guess.