Attempt at an answer
"I'm a fan of interesting theoretical questions, so thanks for answering this, Don and Panama Rick."
Don't forget Norm!
"Just to make sure I'm understanding correctly: are you saying that, on average, there is a two-deck portion of every eight-deck shoe that, if counted separately, would yield a final count of +15?"
Yes.
"If that's the case, I'm surprised."
Well, I wasn't. :-)
"I would have expected the average worst two-deck portion to be substantially lower than that,"
Not as an AVERAGE.
"while recognizing that the absolute worst two-deck portion would be substantially higher (theoretically it could get all the way up to 104, though I'm assuming the odds against that happening are pretty astronomical)."
Rick shows 44 or so to be just about the ultimate.
"In any case, your intuition certainly does seem to have been incredibly accurate, Don."
Bad habit of mine. :-)
"Can you explain how you came to your extremely-well-educated guess?"
Maybe. I've been at this for 33 years, and my intuition re things of this nature is rather sharp. I just tried to call upon all the play I've done and came up with my best estimate. Frankly, I didn't expect it to be THAT precise! :-)
Don