online BJ question (wager amounts)

online BJ question (wager amounts)

just had my first online experience, won $101 in about 2hrs...so i guess it was a positive experience...

just say you want a $100 matching bonus, and you have to have a total 10-15 times that wagered....

what bet size would be best???something lower like $1-2, but taking a long time or something like $5...

im asking the people with experience, what their opinion is about time vs risk, and what they think is the best compromise (ie betsize)...

when i ran a sim it playted out 11000 hands, starting at $1000, flat betting $1 lowest was 970s highest was 1100s....this had roughly an equal win/loss%, and so was slighly favorable...but how wildly can you expect it to fluctuate????

id like to know, i just want the best balance between risk and speed....

The more you bet the more you win

just had my first online experience, won $101 in about 2hrs...so i guess it was a positive experience...

Wait till you get paid, then celebrate.

what bet size would be best???something lower like $1-2, but taking a long time or something like $5...

The less you bet, the lower your fluctuations. The more you bet the more your expectation, and the faster your win rate.

Strictly, what is optimal no online player actually does. Kelly betting, which is always the best compromise between earnings and risk, with bonus hustling is very aggressive because of the huge % advantage. No one does it.
If you get 100 bonus for 1000 action (a bit optimistic these days but easier to calculate) then your optimal kelly bet on an even-money proposition on $10,000 bankroll is, erm, 1000 dollars. You need to adjust for 1.3 divisor associated with blackjack, but whichever way you do it the optimal bet size is huge.
Naturally this assumes no cheating (which is unwise except with the best operations), and that you won't have cashflow problems in the interim between qualification and payment, which is also very unlikely.

My impression of bonus hustlers in general is that they are, by the standards of card counters, insanely risk-averse, and rarely bet more than $5 a hand.
Note: Bonus hustlers in general are abnormally terrified of wiping out. Wipe-out is actually your friend. If you lose your deposit and bonus before you meet your qualification requirements then you do not have to do any more wagering. Though that is small consolation at the time because you've lost money, in the long-run the player who has a significant chance of wipe-out has to wager proportionately less for his bonuses and will make more money than the $1 bettor who has virtually no chance of wipe-out, even when you forget about time.

wiping out

Note: Bonus hustlers in general are abnormally terrified of wiping out. Wipe-out is actually your friend. If you lose your deposit and bonus before you meet your qualification requirements then you do not have to do any more wagering. Though that is small consolation at the time because you've lost money, in the long-run the player who has a significant chance of wipe-out has to wager proportionately less for his bonuses and will make more money than the $1 bettor who has virtually no chance of wipe-out, even when you forget about time.

This is a good strategy if you have a big BR,but the problem is that you will wipeout most of the time but at the casino you win at you should win a lot.But what if this casino happens to be the one that gives you the runaround and you have to wait for ages to get the money or get ripped off?this is like having all your eggs in one basket.

for a low BR player i would rather win at more casinos and have a stready stream coming in,if one gives hassle then that is just a small percentage.Also with your method you will reach your credit card limit quite fast.

Eggs in one basket

But what if this casino happens to be the one that gives you the runaround and you have to wait for ages to get the money or get ripped off?this is like having all your eggs in one basket.

I did cover the cashflow thing. However, its clear that even with the practical considerations in mind bonus hustlers seriously underbet in a way card counters just couldn't afford to if they want to be successful. Mostly they hate the thought of losing a session (tell this to a counter and he'll die laughing) and rationalize after the fact by talking about cheating, cashflow and so on. These considerations do matter, but limiting your bet size is not the best way to deal with the problem.

for a low BR player i would rather win at more casinos and have a stready stream coming in,if one gives hassle then that is just a small percentage.Also with your method you will reach your credit card limit quite fast.

True. There are some casinos (eg boss media) which get your cash back to you fast enough to make this viable, indeed I've done it, but in general you are correct.

Optimal bet size for bonus hustling

Hello, just wanted to introduce myself quickly. I've been reading this board for a couple months, finally decided I have something worth posting. My background: 21 years old, live in the Midwest, and just need to get a little quicker with true count conversion and I'll have hi-lo down good enough to try it in a casino around here. In the mean time, though, I've been doing bonus hustling, and in the past month have made about $1500. After reading a couple weeks ago on here someone saying that they thought a $50 bet size may be best, I decided I really wanted to figure it out, since that didn't seem right to me. I have discovered what I believe to be the optimal betting for bonus hustling, and it is as follows.

I make use of a couple formulas from Blackjack Attack, 2e, namely:

Standard deviation for blackjack = 1.1 SQR(N) where N = number of hands played (page 18)

Trip ruin formula: ROR = N ((-B � ev)/sd) + e^((-2 x ev x B)/sd^2) x N ((-B + ev)/sd) where

N (x) = cumulative normal distribution function of (x)
B = bankroll
ev = expected value
sd = standard deviation

(page 162)

Basically, the idea I hit upon is that to make the highest hourly wage, you must bet large enough that you go through a casino quickly, yet small enough that standard deviation does not ruin you at too many casinos. To calculate the hourly rate for a particular bet size, the following variables must be defined:

D = Deposit
bo = bonus
ed = player�s basic strategy edge (typically a negative number, around �0.004)
W = total amount that must be wagered before a cashout
be = bet size
sp = betting speed, in hands per hour

Now, the variables in the trip ruin formula are calculated:

B = D + bo
ev = W x ed
sd = be x 1.1 SQR(W / be) = 1.1 SQR(W x be)

The risk of trip ruin is then calculated. From this, you can calculate the mean amount won per casino trip as:

win = (1 � ROR) x (bo + ev) � ROR x D

The time to complete a run is

time = ((be x sp)/W

For the hourly rate, divide by the number of hours to wager the required amount

hourly wage = win / time

Then, the formula should be tried with various bet sizes until the maximum hourly wage is found. The optimal bet will then be known. The formula can be applied at any time during the casino visit � say, after half the required wagers are completed and you are up $100, you might want to up your bet to be done quicker � just adjust bo by any wins or losses and adjust W to reflect how much more you actually do have to bet. I wish it were easier to explicitly find the optimal bet size, but as long as you have a TI-89 or similar calculator that can integrate or a computer program that can calculate the cumulative normal distribution formula, then it is not hard to plug in a bunch of values for the bet size until you find where the peak is.

As an example, I will do a typical situation - $100 deposit, $100 bonus, total must be wagered 10 times ($2000), with a BS expectation of �0.004, 240 hands an hour

Bet size	Time (hours)	Win		Hourly wage	ROR

2		4.17		90.93		21.82		.0056

4		2.08		82.49		39.60		.0495

6		1.39		71.25		51.30		.1081

8		1.04		60.63		58.20		.1634

10		0.83		51.3		61.56		.2120

12		0.69		43.23		62.25		.2540

14		0.60		36.23		60.86		.2905

�

30		0.28		2.14		7.69		.4680

32		0.26		-0.56		-2.16		.4821 

As you can see, the optimal bet size is $12, and once you reach a $32 bet your hourly expectation is actually negative. Clearly, a bet over $12 does not make sense. What about a bet less than $12? Could that make sense?

Yes. The �win� column shows why. Compared to, say, $2 bets, you finish much quicker and that more than compensates for your increased risk of ruin. However, this only truly is the correct bet size if there are an unlimited number of casinos offering these bonuses so that you can keep up that hourly rate on average. In reality, there is a finite amount of money that can be made bonus hustling, and that is maximized by betting the minimum in all situations, regardless of how long it will take. Most people will choose to take a middle ground between the minimum bets and the optimal bet, and that is what I would recommend (I personally would do $4 bets when I am behind my deposit + bonus, $6 bets when ahead), unless you plan on doing this for a living, in which case I would suggest you find less tedious ways to earn $21.82 an hour � bearing in mind that that refers to playing time � cashing out time is unpaid.

Possible problems with the above analysis:

1.) I ignore double downs and splits when calculating how many hands must be played in calculating the standard deviation - might make the optimum bet actually slightly larger than what I've calculated.

2.) I ignore double downs and splits in calculating the amount of time to finish a casino - won't change optimum bet, just hourly wage.

3.) I ignore the time saved if you are ruined at a casino - might make optimum bet slightly larger.

4.) I ignore the fact that the EV at when you're not ruined will actually be higher, since the far negative fluctuations are not incorporated into the average. Negligible for small bet sizes, but will probably make the optimum bet larger still.

So, if anything I've underestimated the optimal bet, but I recommend betting slightly less than optimum anyway, so I don't consider it a big deal.

Please let me know what you think. I'm a college dropout and it's been years since I took statistics, but it seems okay to me.

how long do casinos normally take to pay (thru neteller)

im guessing it wildly variates...but 2 days, a few???i know you cant always expect your money, just that i wanted to use only what i deposited into my neteller account, no more...(and the casino pays up, the sooner i make more money)

dont worry ill stick it out...

i also just found out i qualified for the bonus, and recieved my neteller bonus....that win just climbed up another $110....nice surprise (didnt think i wagered enough, obviously i did)

Fluctuations

I have been a bonus hustler for about a year and have made about 25 grand (mostly from playing for friends' accounts with their info and then splitting the winnings, and also a few multi-thousand dollar wins) and I would say that from every place where it is a deposit 100 get 100 or similarly to that, I have only wiped out a few times when betting $5 per hand.
Let's say it's dep 100 get 100 and 10X wagering, at a casino where the house edge is .5%, that comes to a win of 90 bucks. It requires 400 hands, and at a casino such as realtime gaming, you can play a hand in 4-5 seconds easily. 400X5=2000 seconds, which comes to about 33.5 minutes. That comes to about 160 bucks an hour. Not a bad deal, and at 5 bucks a hand, chance of being down 20 hands in 400 is low. Actually, it's the chance of being down 40 hands because you have the bonus to play with.

thanks for the advice (nt)

another question.....list of dodgy casinos??

im sure i could do a search here or on an engine, id just prefer the most up to date info....

On the right track...

Ny, it looks like you've got a handle on how things work. I only went over your figures briefly, but they look to be correct. I've been working on some formulas for evaluation of online games and optimal bet size as well, and what it really boils down to is the value one puts on time. I personally know online professionals who operate at both ends of this spectrum, and both of them are making substantial amounts of money.

With that said, I bring up a comment you made:

"In reality, there is a finite amount of money that can be made bonus hustling, and that is maximized by betting the minimum in all situations, regardless of how long it will take."

This is the initial thought I had when arguing to myself about a point brought up by a friend about making larger wagers to speed up returns. But then I realized, yes the return is of course finite, but so is the amount of time to realize this return. That is, say for min risk it would take us a year to clean out every bonus on the net with min bets...but will those bonuses still be available in 6, 8, 10 months? Some may argue this point, but it certainly can't be said that this amount of time is infinite, so I'd say it has to be a factor.

"Most people will choose to take a middle ground between the minimum bets and the optimal bet..."

I think you're right, this is probably what most people do, and as you see, risk can be kept at a moderate level without going overboard.

One last thought, some of the factors you neglected to consider will have an impact, and should be considered though it will substantially complicate your formula.

ANS

Good formula but...

Hi, nice to see a fellow Lovecraft fan.
Impressive as your formula is, as J says, a major problem is the speed of payment. Kelly assumes instant payment-whereas online payment (if ever) is notoriously difficult to predict. If you can rejig your formula to include this factor then we are really cooking, but its no picnic, you only have an estimate of the time interval and must adjust for the variance around this estimate, which isn't normally distributed. Its a major headache, which is why I've never bothered doing it.

About 3 days...

...is average. Getting the money from netteller takes longer though. Unfortunately this is quite an amateur outfit, no replacement for paypal.

now they tell me...

funny though, when i signed up they had rung me withing a minute or 2 for conformation....they processed bankwire very quickly, etc...

i guess i was thinking maybe 2 days...

i thought using services was meant to make it quicker exchanging money from the casino and the (neteller etc) account???

my deposit went through straight away with no problem....the only hold up i could see in the opposite is checking of the bonus....

ah well, i guess ill find out soon enough, shame though, means i wont make any money for a bit (dont think ill ever go to a land based casino again ;)

Average of 3 days...

I was adding on a day because occassionally you get audits and other classic stalling techniques. 2 days is more typical, but not an average (you know, all that median vs mean stuff).

ha yeh maths, i guess i didnt mean....

the mean or median, as long payments would totally knock these out of wack...i meant typical ;)

ahh maths, back then i thought id never need, a few years on and probability and statistics, and arithmetic is basically most of the stuff that goes through our heads....

When you played on friend's account

did you play on your isp, can they catch something like thiat?

No, I go to

a computer lab. I am in college, we have several computer labs, and I use different computers for different friends. Or I just use their computers. Yes, be sure to use different computers. I've lost a lot of dough because I was careless.

A list

Although I enjoy playing their software, realtimegaming is somewhat notorious for taking a long time. Specifically a major group of them run by VIRTUAL CASINO. If you download software from a casino but the software comes up at virtual casino, be sure not to play there. I have numerous horrible horrible experiences with them. Also, silversands and powerbet, a couple of sometimes sticky casinos. Also, a group of 4: casinoheat, casinoextreme, blast21, and rubydragon.
All those listed are realtimegaming.

Bet your full bankroll.

That�s what�s optimal when playing for a bonus. Most bonuses have a wagering requirement. The wagering requirement reduces the EV of the bonus. The larger you bet, the larger is your risk of busting. Thus, the larger you bet, the less you wager on average and thus the less of the bonus you give away to the house.

So EV-wise it is optimal to bet as much as possible until you bust or reach requirements. If you are interested in the hourly rate it�s even more obvious. High bets gives the highest EV, and high bets also gives the shortest playing time. Two factors making high bets superior when it comes to return/hour.

Most bonushunters seems to believe that busting out is something negative. That is wrong! Every bust is a save in EV since you reduce the total wagers :-)