Nightmare for counters

The worst nightnmare for card counters is not highly negative cards, the worst thing is that you are extremely unlucky when the count is +20-30, I meet this situation wery often:I lost 1-2 hands, but the counts is still rising, I really don't want to lower my bets, sometimes even increase a little bit, but I lose 2-3 hands after 1 hand winning. by doing this, I lose quickly. Can anyone find a way to solve this problem?

I believe that you can simplify this even further and simply state that the true nightmare for the AP is variance. If you are playing a winning game, then the only way that you lose is through variance. This is most evident when you have the highest EV (at high counts). Unfortunately, there is nothing that can be done about variance other than understanding that it will happen and sizing your bets proportionate to both your bankroll and psychological acceptance of risk. Also, it is important to recognize when variance has a negative impact on your mental attitude and take a break to regroup at those times.

Hello li tan

Many people are of the mistaken impression that because you have spent so much time counting without getting any advantage, that when you finally do, you mistakenly believe that you should win 90% of the time. In reality, when the count is positive, you can expect to win about 52% of the time. You are simply experiencing some of the 48%losses. You must understand the consequences of standard deviation and variance and be sufficiently bankrolled to stay in the game long enough for your 1% advantage to finally be realized.

Typically, the worst sessions will be the result of missed opportunities on high counts. Generally speaking, if you are betting small one unit all bets all night on weak counts you will not stand to lose big - especially if you walk out on the real bad shoes (becuase you'll actually be catching the good cards at the front o the deck and missing the bad ones at the end.

It is often the case that you lose the most money on days when you see the sky-high counts, which makes perfect sense when you consider that the count gets moderately high when you start throwing out max bets, yet continues to acsend on small cards rather than reverting toward 0 as we counters expct.

The important thing is you do not lose your nerve and stop pushing out the big bets.

There are several reasons why many who begin to count never play a winning game. Bad choice of games, no dedication to really learning indices and many other reasons.
One of the most important reasons is the lack of guts or bankroll to keep putting out those big bets when the count calls for it after you have experienced several devastating loosing sessions during very high counts.
I think many players quit counting after this and say it just does not work.
Other players hedge against this and take that 12-1 spread way down to perhaps 4-1, thus creating an ultimate grind situation where in a good game they make eek out a little and in a bad game never get ahead.
Those players who go on and land up playing a winning game know that this will happen but they believe in the math and keep spreading.

From personal experience when I started counting and was very underbankrolled and played some bad games, I had several such sessions that wiped me out. Only after both talking with a successful AP and really reading a few books (reading more than indices and how to count but the importance of rules and spread), did I turn my game around.

It is a test to separate the AP from the guy who counts but does not seem to win.

6 or 8 decks.

Thank you for your answer. I think I find the reason why casinos still keep bj game while facing more and more counters. Lots of counters lost their whole money in 48% time without surviving until 52% time comes. Am I right?

I played at Sands in Ac for 6 consecutive days.( I live in chinatown,Ny. and takes bus for 5 hour round trip and play 4 hours a day.)I bring $2000 each trip. I play $25 minimum and bet $25 or $50 or $100(when I am in a lucky winning stike) when the count is negative.When the is between 0 and +10, I bet two hand, $100 each hand,(occationally three hands), when the count is above +10, I bet $200 a hand for two hand.I was quite unlucky for these 6 days. I lost consecutively for 6 days which is $12000. Last month I was lucky and won 5 consecutive days won $10000. Most of time,3 day lose after 1 or 2 days win is quite often. My question to BJ fellow and expert is: is 6 day consecutive lose within the normal deviation, or I have problem in bankroll arrangement or right method? Please answer me.

My bankroll is $2000 each trip, I play 4 hours each trip (sometimes I lost within 1 hour). The min is $25, when the count is over +10, I start betting 2 hands each hand is $150-$200, if it goes well, I raise to $250-$300 each hands. Unfortunately, I was unluky last week, I lost 6 consecutive trips ($12000 total). Is that normal variance or I made mistake somewhere? For a bankroll of 5k, if I play $10 min, what is the right max bet when the count is high? Please answer me. Thank you.