Negitive Count

Hi all,

This is my first post, and i've only known about this site for a few days. I am normally a poker player, but as I've moved to a new area without a poker room (and i don't know any card players) i've taken up Black Jack.

I've read "Bringing Down the House" and have followed its counting guidelines(much the same as posted on this site).

I've only played/counted once and had a winning session. During my session, twice when the count became really negative i would have a small winning streak. I would win alot of hands but i would only have $3 up. (spread was $3-$300).

My Questions:
1. is it normal to winning streaks when the count is very negative, -10 or lower?

2. I know i shouldn't play a negative count at all, but the casino is very small (only 2 BJ tables going) and i was afraid of arousing suspicion. I can only go to the bathroom so many times and come back at the beginning of a new deck. How should i handle this?

3. Because the casino is so small, should i play short sessions? with my "unconventional play and large betting in spread, should i be extra cautious?

Thanks all

Mark

"I know i shouldn't play a negative count at all, but the casino is very small (only 2 BJ tables going) and i was afraid of arousing suspicion"

You are "afraid of arousing suspicion" and you use a 1-100 spread!?

And this was you first time counting/playing? Sorry I don't believe you story.

You can win just as easy in negative counts as you can lose in positive counts. Blackjack is a very fast brutal game that does not forgive. Session results often work backwards, (win in neg,lose in pos) but if you gamble long enough (years) you will recognize how negative counts are worth a shit.

1. is it normal to winning streaks when the count is very negative, -10 or lower?

yes

2. I know i shouldn't play a negative count at all, but the casino is very small (only 2 BJ tables going) and i was afraid of arousing suspicion. I can only go to the bathroom so many times and come back at the beginning of a new deck. How should i handle this?

With a 1-100 spread you'll arise more suspicion than going to the bathroom. Besides with a spread of this sort, there is no need to worry about negative counts.

3. Because the casino is so small, should i play short sessions? with my "unconventional play and large betting in spread, should i be extra cautious?

Never tried using 1-100 spreads,cant afford it. I'd keep the sessions short and make sure you have good skills, a helluva act and a helluva bankroll or you may go broke before you even get there.

Sorry,

It was my first time counting, but i was not spreadin the full 1-100, i was normally only spreading $3-$20 (i was just pointing out what the spread was).

I'm new this game so you'll have to excuse my ignorance of the terms being used here.

To rephrase my questions, as I was the only person changing my bets regularly, do I have to worry about looking suspicious, and how do i stay away from neg. counts.

Thanks for your responses, and sorry about the confusion.

Mark

If you have the bankroll to have a max bet of $300, why dont you reduce your bet spread and spread from green to black? This would give you a 1-12 bet spread, which is sufficient for most shoe games. With a shallow start point of $3, your hourly EV has to be terrible. You could play $25 to $300 in units of $25 and leave the casino much sooner each day as your daily win goal would arrive sooner. This leaves you less time on floor to get pegged.

Thanks for clarifying yourself.

So your spreading $3 to $20. How many decks?

Is this a small Indian joint that requires a player ante each time? If so, your spread probably does not matter. If not ..

.. depending on the decks, you should probably be able to spread from $3/$15 to $3/$50 without undue pressure.

How big is your BR? What should your max bet be? Maybe you can afford to bet big > $20. If so, slipping in the $3 mini bet every chance you get on the negative counts is a plus.

The smallness of the place is a problem. Play the neg counts when you have to and bet the minimum. Pee more often. :)

Is it busy? Are the tables full? Do they allow mid-shoe entry? Do you live locally? Will the casino people know you out in public?

All that would go into the personality you bring to the table.

You may be "Casper Milk Toast" in public. But if some loud compulsive gambler shows up with wild bet spreads who (seemingly) chases his losses -he might get away with more.

Also -about all that winning you have done on the negative counts. Remember these when they start to balance out.

"You could play $25 to $300 in units of $25 and leave the casino much sooner each day as your daily win goal would arrive sooner."

Your point of view is misleading and a bad strategy to use. Increasing the minumum bet from $3 to 25$ in negative counts will result in a huge increase of risk of ruin,huge increase in variance and a huge DECREASE of expectation. He will win less and lose more often if your logic is applied.

a degree than high counts are advantageous. But they are still disadvantageous. You may have won as the count was going negative because 10s were coming out. You had no way of predicting it though because the distribution according to your count would not forecast it. All you can do is bet into what you can predict and hope for a random distribution of high cards.

He should use a smaller spread because the large spread is going to get him booted. If he can afford a max bet of $300 he should be playing at a level that will allow him to use the $300 max in more counts. I absolutely agree that any wager in a negative count is a bad bet. Ideally, negative counts should never be played, but such actions can lead to scrutiny. According to your comments, all green chippers are playing at a disadvantage. I don't think this guy is jumping from $3 in neg. counts to $300 in TCs over +4. He would be out of there in a hurry if he spread like that. He most likely isn't putting out as much money as he would be capable of in high counts. If he can afford the $300 max bets he needs to play at a level where he gets that max bet out more often when he has an advantage. Unfortunately, he needs to have a higher minimum bet for cover if he wants to get the $300 out there.

Dont know how you came to the conclusion I said green chippers play at a disadvantage,could you explain?

"If he can afford the $300 max bets he needs to play at a level where he gets that max bet out more often when he has an advantage."

This is misleading also. If your minimum bet is only $3,you'll be able to bet the $300 more often (at a lower TC) because your risk of ruin is much lower and expection is much higher.

he already said he plays a joint where there are only 2 tables. This means the pit can watch him closer. Additionally, he said most of the other players are flat bettors. If you were in the survelliance, wouldn't you keep an eye on the one guy who was using a 1-100 bet spread? He's gonna get pegged real quick and thats going to get him tossed out, what will that do to his EV then since, as he said, there are no other casinos nearby. He may just be using the $3 only in negative counts, but what does he change to as soon as he has an advantage, $25, $50? I want to know what the TC has to be for him to get the $300 out there. His spread is going to get him kicked out, and he will get fewer hands as a result.

It is a 6 deck shoe
Mid shoe entry is allowed and you can sit out hands

I do live local. The casino is one of the smallest i've ever seen, and it is in a city of about 80,000. So don't know any of the casino employee and wouldn't know them from a hole in the ground. The city has a lot of unemployment.

It is not very busy through the day. Around 2pm, i was playing by myslef, but shortly a few others joined the table.

I don't have a set BR. Since i could not find a poker game i put my roll back into my loans. However, i do have a large line of credit and have access to large amounts of cash. But since i am just starting out, i planned to just play small amounts until i am counting perfectly.

In poker, you basically "pay for lessons" during your first 10-20 games. Also, you start at the lowest limits and move up when you are beating them. Is BJ the same way, or should I be expecting to win 80% of my sessions from the start. Is it wise to start with larger amounts of money or should i start at the minimum.

Thanks to everyone who posted responses. This forum seems great.

mark

Often the best strings of wins occur when the count is falling (i.e., the high cards are coming out). This occurs when the shuffle has created a deck/shoe in which a high number of high cards are collected together. This "rich" section can continue until the count has gone substantially negative.

Card counting depends on a roughly even distribution of the various cards within the unplayed portion of the shoe. It fails when that distibution is decidedly uneven, as per the scenario outlined in the previous paragraph.

It's just one of those things you have to learn to live with.

I am a small stakes player and often play at $3 min tables. Because it is only $3, I just play through the neg. counts. I have had many winning streaks during negative counts, but I don't increase my bet. I just see it as good luck and wait for my pos. count opportunities.

I don�t know where he plays or how much heat is going to be under.

But there are places which really aren�t worried about counters. They think counters can hurt them.

This casino only has two tables. It is doubtful that they have purchased software to evaluate players. And it is doubtful that the person in the sky is trained in BJ surveillance. His/Her primary duties are watching that people keep their hands out of the till, etc.

My guess is that they already know he is counting cards, but aren�t worried about it.

If he get a big cum win, they may bar him.

For readers who only play in Nevada, you out to get more often.

> It is a 6 deck shoe. Mid shoe entry is allowed and you can sit out hands

How many decks are they dealing out? 4.0, 4.5, 5.0? I won't play 6Ds if you are seeing 4.0 or less. Personally, I think you need to develope some method of moving in and out of the games or skipping hands (Wonging) as the count dictates.

> I do live local. The casino is one of the smallest i've ever seen, and it is in a city of about 80,000. So don't know any of the
casino employee and wouldn't know them from a hole in the ground. The city has a lot of unemployment.

80,000 is not huge. I imagine after playing there awhile, you'll start seeing some of those dealers and PBs around town.

> It is not very busy through the day. Around 2pm, i was playing by myslef, but shortly a few others joined the table.

If the pen is good ( >4.5 ), playing solitaire is great. If the pen is poorer ( <4.5 ) I would try playing when it is a bit more crowded and Wonging in and out as possible. Again, if it is <4.0, I just won't participate.

> I don't have a set BR. Since i could not find a poker game i put my roll back into my loans. However, i do have a large line of credit and have access to large amounts of cash. But since i am just starting out, i planned to just play small amounts until i am counting perfectly.

So pick a number. What are you willing to risk over the next six months learning to play? That's your BR. At the lowest end, if the mini bet is $3, I would think your top bet s/b no more than $45. Based on a $45 max bet, a BR of $2,500 to $5,000 s/b good. If you have more than that, raise your limits accordingly. I would still try to play on the low end as low as I could get away with.

> In poker, you basically "pay for lessons" during your first 10-20 games. Also, you start at the lowest limits and move up when you are beating them. Is BJ the same way ..

Sort of. In poker you have to play every hand, or at least ante up. In BJ, it is better to play only when you have the advantage, only in plus counts, if you can get away with it in your casino.

> .. or should I be expecting to win 80% of my sessions from the start.

I don't.

> Is it wise to start with larger amounts of money or should i start at the minimum.

BJ is easily practiced at home for the small cost of a good software program -for free!

----

Playing poker, you are playing against the other players. In BJ, you are playing against the dealers, the PBs, the house. If the house suspects they can't beat you, they will take their cards and send you home.

The generalized post above is intended to keep them playing with you -however, in truth, it only scratches the surface.

Buy some good books -it is an intricate dance to keep getting as much money out, in favorable situations, without them suspecting they can't beat you.

Like someone else said .. "there is a lot more to counting cards than counting cards."

Good luck.

All of the dealers i've seen cut to about 1 deck left and always play though. I would bet the the minimum penetration is 5 decks at least 70% of the time.

I assumed this was favorable, am I wrong?

Also, the casino is pretty small and somewhat run down. Its dark and dinggy. And if the same manager who looks after the cleaning staff looks after security, I could probably rob the place with a bar of soap. I can't imagine their surveillence is top notch, but what should i look out for, what do i need to be aware of.

As for basic stradegy and indicies, I have been following what is on this site, is that enough to get started?

Thanks again

Mark

> All of the dealers i've seen cut to about 1 deck left and always play though. I would bet the the minimum penetration is 5 decks at least 70% of the time. I assumed this was favorable, am I wrong?

If I could get dealt 5 of 6 everyday, I would be in heaven.

> Also, the casino is pretty small and somewhat run down. Its dark and dinggy. And if the same manager who looks after the cleaning staff looks after security, I could probably rob the place with a bar of soap. [ :) ] I can't imagine their surveillence is top notch ..

Do they even have cameras in the place? Are security people visible?Is there a pit boss?

> .. but what should i look out for, what do i need to be aware of.

Again, a longish answer. Generally, keep an eye out for undue attention. If you think you feel pressure from them, it's probably real. Keep your sessions short.

> As for basic stradegy and indicies, I have been following what is on this site, is that enough to get started?

Sorry, no comment here. There is a lot of disparate information on this site.