Need advice on Lucky Ladies BJ

I've been playing at Jackson Rancheria, an Indian casino in Northern CA, and I have a question about the Lucky Ladies tables. They offer a side bet for when the first two cards total 20. Any 20 pays 4:1, a suited 20 pays 9:1, a matched and suited 20 pays 19:1, and two Queens of hearts pays 125:1 (1000:1 if the dealer has blackjack). Its a six deck game, DA2, DAS, H17, no surrender. My question is at what TC would this bet be profitable? Sorry if this has been asked before, I don't know if Lucky Ladies is offered elsewhere. I'm only 18 afterall! Thanks for any replies.
Bill

There are strategies which can beat this game, but the variance makes it unnattractive, counting the game is rather like buying up a load of lottery tickets when the jackpot rolls over. You need a huge bankroll which would be better put to use elsewhere. This is true for most longshot sidebets such as super 7's, RM etc.

Typically, any side bets for casino table games are sucker bets (along with any game besides BJ and poker).

For example, your odds of making a 20 are about 10:1. If they are only paying out 4:1, you cannot make money in the long run.

You have to look at each promotion separately and compare the payout to the odds of hitting it. In no case does a casino offer a better payout than the odds (this is why they make money).

Now, if you are also counting cards and get a very positive count, then your chances of making 20 go up (but i don't know how much this affects your odds).

Mark

It showed a TC of +10 to be necessary for the house edge to be removed. How often does that happen. That analysis was also based on the following paytable: a20 pays 4:1, s20 pays 10:1, m20 pays 25:1, 2Qh pays 200:1, 2Qh w/ dBJ pays: 1000:1. Your paytable is much worse than that. The off-the-top house edge for the version you play is 24.71%. They make nearly $0.25 for every $1.00 bet. Here is a table from galaxy gaming's website promoting this game.

Winning Combination
Win Frequency (per # of hands dealt)

Number of Decks
2
4
6
8

Queen of Hearts Pair w/ Dealer BJ 114,942.5
76,394.2
68,681.3
65,359.5

Queen of Hearts Pair 5,617.7
3,764.9
3,394.3
3,235.4

Matched 20 357.1
239.2
215.6
205.5

Suited 20 47.8
48.1
48.1
48.2

Any 20 12.4
12.5
12.5
12.5

hands dealt per win:
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.4

House Advantage per wager:
24.94%
24.96%
24.71%
24.05%

USING 6 / 8 PAYOUT ODDS:
30.05%
26.04%

If you notice the part where it says hands dealt per win, it says 9.4. You only win that bet on average nearly every 10 hands.

I use that sidebet to place a bet for the dealer. I never play it for myself. In my mind, I am already giving that money away, so it is lost, but it usually makes the dealers happy when they get a payout since the minimum win is 4:1. I usually wait for a high count before putting a bet like that out for them. Dealers will deal deep if they think that bet will work when the cards are dealt deep. As superstitious as they are, all you have to do is say "it is more likely a 20 will occur near the end of the deck".

Under a normal count like HiLo, you need a +10. Don't hold your breath for that to happen.

You can crush this game with a specialized count specifically designed for this side bet. You probably won't be able to keep this count and a normal count at the same time, so it is best to work as a team. One member keeping and signalling a normal count so the normal BJ waiting bets don't kill you, and the other signalling when the side bet should be made.

Of course, making and hitting the big payoff on the rare occasions that you do make a side bet, is probably going to blow the whole gig.

Take a look at bjfonline.com there is a heated discussion on this side bet going on right now. The main point is the varience is so high it is not worth playing without a HUGE bankroll and a bankroll of that size could be put to better use in other games. I personally would stay away from this bet except as someone stated as a tip for the dealer. SM

I would agree with the other posters that this bet is definately not beatable, unless you have a huge BR, on the order of $100K or so. If you do have this large of a BR, then you would probably be better off financing a team.

One member keeping and signalling a normal count so the normal BJ waiting bets don't kill you, and the other signalling when the side bet should be made.

This is possible, but the partners can be employed counting regular blackjack at another table. The gain from counting LL does not exceed the doubled win rate you'd get from counting regular bj at two tables. This is an important rule which covers virtually all blackjack side bets.
You could try this if there are good reasons why you can't play separate tables, or you are a gifted individual who can keep both counts simultaneously. However, the "drag" of the high variance LL wagers is going to cause problems with your optimal betting scheme.

The side bet is not beatable over the long run no matter how big your bankroll is.

The whole idea of a side bet (from the casino's perspective)is that you pay the casino one dollar to win 75cents. You will ALWAYS lose in the long run. The only way to win is to hit the 1000:1 shot on your first hand and then quit for the rest of your life. If you don't quit, you'll give it all back.

Everyone (well most anyway) here would agree that no one can beat any other game in the long run. We all know you can't beat roulette, Let it Ride, Caribean Stud, 3 Card Poker, the Slots, Craps, etc, etc. These games are all set up to pay you back less than what your bet (e.g. you pay $1 to get 75 cents). Side bets provide even worse odds than the actual games.

Every gambler should know that getting 4 to 1 odds on a 10 to 1 shot is a sucker bet that should be avoided at all costs.

Mark

None of these bets can be beaten -- The Lucky Ladies bet has a huge house edge. Forget it.

Join greenchip and read the archives for the details.

Thanks for all the replies. Since the count will almost never reach 10 in a six deck game, I'll just keep making money on regular BJ. I can't believe the people who bet $5 to $10 on this side bet every hand!

>>The side bet is not beatable over the long run no matter how big your bankroll is.

Someone said not with 100k and you say any ammount?! Where is your proof? It surely is beatable, and even better on a 2 deck game. Sure there is variance but saying you need 100k to play LL is laughable. The max bet is $25 most places. I've played it a long time, and know this number is way off. Some math wiz here will surely debunk that number for you.

>>The whole idea of a side bet (from the casino's perspective)is that you pay the casino one dollar to win 75cents. You will ALWAYS lose in the long run. The only way to win is to hit the 1000:1 shot on your first hand and then quit for the rest of your life. If you don't quit, you'll give it all back.

Oh really, and I thought Panama Rick showed making this bet when positive with hi-lo gave a bigger edge than regular counting. You will lose in the long run,relentlessly making a positive bet? Wait a minute, you aren't Rob Singer under a different handle are you?

>>Everyone (well most anyway) here would agree that no one can beat any other game in the long run. We all know you can't beat roulette, Let it Ride, Caribean Stud, 3 Card Poker, the Slots, Craps, etc, etc. These games are all set up to pay you back less than what your bet (e.g. you pay $1 to get 75 cents).

Nope, I'm here and I won't agree with that one either. There we are again "the games are set up to pay 75 on the $1". Guess what, bj is "set to pay back less than 100%" too. You don't believe people beat 21?!

Ok, the other games. I personally know someone who beats craps with setting. Slots can't be beaten? Did you even hear of Piggy bankin, Wild Cherry Pie, X factor, Bingo, etc. I have made more money playing slots than bj, and they will put you nice rooms and give you concert and fight tixs for playing them too. The casinos must know they are beatable too, they remove the machines and I've seen many barred for playing them.

Someone who can control how the dice roll??

and have thought that it may be a worthwhile exploration. I personally am doing quite well at setting and maybe it's just SD on my side but there are some things worth considering. I wish my math was good enough to determine the possible player edge on setting the dice. Here are my thoughts:

Dice setting is arranging the dice in a certain fashion in an effort to keep one axis of the dice from ever showing on top. The walls and such can alter one's ability to do this effectively, but trying to throw dice in such a way that they barely kiss the bottom of the wall, and lowers the force of impact can reduce the randomizing effect.

A set I like to use has the hard 4 on top, shaped like a letter "v". In front of the dice is an easy 4, or 3,1. If this set is thrown perfectly, only 16 possible faces would appear. Perfection is unlikely, so you have to practice. Out of those 16 possible faces, only 2 of them result in a 7, making the seven frequency 1:8 instead of the 1:6 normally averaged with the game. It also makes the 4 or 10 show up 1:8, making it as likely as a 7 to show and therefore not the usual 1:12 that it appears. This can make a buy 4 or buy 10 bet very profitable. Naturally perfection is tough to achieve and the roller will frequently turn up the axis on the dice.

Now for the math exploration of this set. Of course, this set executed perfectly will make the 4 show as frequently as the 7 and make the buy bet a positive EV. Perfection is rarely achieved, and there comes a point (no pun intended) when the lack of precision will destroy any advantage the player has. My question to those who are good at determining the edge, etc. is, how often can a setter screw up this set before he loses his advantage? Out of 100 precision tosses, what percentage of the rolls can be random and still have a positive EV? On a rough guess, if a player was right on 50 out of 100 times, he would have a house edge against him those rolls. However, he would have an advantage on the other 50 rolls. How bad can his precision be? I am using the buy 4 and buy 10 bets as the ones to be calculated for.

I would like to know, if anyone is interested in crunching the numbers: What the edge on buy 4 and 10 is if the shooter uses this set and gets it right 10%, 20%, 50%, etc.

In addition, out of the 2 possible ways to make 4, one of them is a hard 4. Same for the 10. This makes the hard 4 bet have fewer ways to lose if the set is good. 1 way to win and 3 ways to lose, whereas before there were 1 way to win and 8 ways to lose. Maybe the numbers on this bet can be crunched as well.

If anyone wants to crunch these numbers, it would be appreciated as I have yet to see the math of dicesetting, or a pure EV associated with an obtainable level of precision.

It makes the table hold higher, and the casino will be less likely to notice at the end of the shift if there was an unusual win on that table. In fact, tell people it can be beaten, let the suckers fund the casino. You could play it from time to time. It does also make for a good cover bet, since most casinos are aware that a counter avoids sucker bets. Just don't give away your EV.

"Someone said not with 100k and you say any ammount?! Where is your proof? It surely is beatable, and even better on a 2 deck game. Sure there is variance but saying you need 100k to play LL is laughable. The max bet is $25 most places. I've played it a long time, and know this number is way off. Some math wiz here will surely debunk that number for you. "

In order for counting to overcome the edge these side bets have, a positive count would need to give a huge% edge for most bets.

For example, to beat a 10:1 longs shot (20) when only getting paid 4:1 when you hit it, the edge you get by counting would have to be more than 150%! That's not going to happen anytime soon.

"Oh really, and I thought Panama Rick showed making this bet when positive with hi-lo gave a bigger edge than regular counting. You will lose in the long run,relentlessly making a positive bet? Wait a minute, you aren't Rob Singer under a different handle are you? "

I didn't see that discussion. Maybe there is some way to get a 150% edge that i don't know of. All of the literature i've seen talks about small edges, <10%. And no, I'm not Rob Singer, my name is Mark.

"Nope, I'm here and I won't agree with that one either. There we are again "the games are set up to pay 75 on the $1". Guess what, bj is "set to pay back less than 100%" too. You don't believe people beat 21?! "

People beat BJ by gaining an edge through counting and betting in advantageous situations. Not by betting when the odds are stacked against them. Casinos know what they're profit is going to be from week to week, month to month because they know that how much they will make based on their edge.

"Ok, the other games. I personally know someone who beats craps with setting. Slots can't be beaten? Did you even hear of Piggy bankin, Wild Cherry Pie, X factor, Bingo, etc."

Do you have any idea of how slots are programed? They always pay out less than what they take in. Casinos are not in the business of making tourists rich.

"I have made more money playing slots than bj, and they will put you nice rooms and give you concert and fight tixs for playing them too. "

Why do you think they give you all that free crap? So you will stay/come back and lose all your (short term) winnings, and then alot more.

"The casinos must know they are beatable too, they remove the machines and I've seen many barred for playing them. "

They remove people who are having short term luck. They also remove machines that payout.

Mark

The house edge on buying the 10 is 4.76%, although you should try buying it for $25 and see if that reduces your edge a little more.

If your example is correct, and you can cause the 10 to show at the same frequency as the 7, then you are getting paid 2:1 on an even money bet (but paying 5% vig to do so) or +95.23% edge. To overcome the normal 4.76% edge, you would have to obtain this performance 4.76/95.23 times or about times 5 per 100 rolls.

Here is an example with a $25 buy bet (again with the $25!) for 100 decisions:
95 rolls without a set X $25 X 4.76 house edge = 113.05 loss
5 rolls with a set x $25 x 95.23% advantage = $119.03 win
= $5.99 profit per $25 bet for 5% advantage rolls
= $1.19 per $25 bet per advantage roll
= 4.79 cents per dollar bet per % advantage roll.

so if you can roll 5% or better, you are making money. Each 1% increase in this rate adds about 4 cents profit per $1 in buy bet.

so if you can roll 20% of the time with this advantage and you buy the 10 for $100 bucks:
20 x 100 x .0479 = $95.80 in your pocket in the long run.

Of course you are going to have to make a token pass line bet at 1.414% house edge in order to be able to throw them dice, so figure that little tax in. I'm not really sure of the decision rate on the pass line, I think you'll be paying this about every 3 rolls on average.

I think the trouble you are having with this Lucky Lady bet, is that you are assuming you make the bet on every hand. Then you are right, you would have to have an incredible edge in a count system to overcome the 'normal' house edge on the 'waiting' bets.

But you don't have to make this bet every time! Suppose I have a count system that tells me when I have a 1% advantage on this bet. I don't make the side bet until I have the advantage. Every dollar wagered is at 1% advantage, no matter how poor the initial payoff or 'normal' odds are. I can expect to make 1% profit per dollar wagered on the side bet, WHEN I MAKE THE BET, which is only when I have an advantage on it. Of course, this 1% profit is in the long run, and the discussion here is about the large variance on this bet (and the amount of time spent standing around waiting for the advantage to appear), which means you need a large bankroll to weather the bad streaks until that 1% long run profit presents itself.

Also,

"Do you have any idea of how slots are programed? They always pay out less than what they take in."
I think the poster above knows very well how the slots are programmed. If you would pay attention you would learn about 'banking' slots. Slots with a progressive jackpot or bonus accumlation feature. Yes, they always pay out less than what they take in, but YOU can still beat them. If Joe Tourist dumps $1000 into one of these slots, and builds up the accumulation bonus to a profitable point, and then walks away, YOU could walk up play $10 worth of spins and hit the $100 bonus jackpot and reset it back to $1. The machine just took in $1010 and paid out $100. The next person to play the machine will be at a disadvantage, because that 10:1 shot of hitting the bonus now just pays $1 (but is starting to grow again). Joe Tourist lost money, but YOU just made $90.
The casinos take a dim view of this. They would rather the bonus payoffs were even distributed to the dumb Joe Tourists, instead of YOU getting a larger than fair share of these 'random' payoffs. Plus YOU are naturally taking advantage of slot club cash back offers, double and triple point nights, free offers, coupons, slot club gifts -- You know, the stuff and offers the casino makes to get Joe Tourist to come in and blindly play, instead YOU selectively 'cherry pick'.

Here is a free advantage play, at that "unbeatable" game of craps.

Every been walking by a crap table and heard some one say "Take me down, dealer." or otherwise call off their point bets?
Well, you might stop and see if that is a Don't bettor calling off his bets. You see all the house edge on a Don't bet is on the come out roll. Once a Don't bet has been put on a number, the player has the advantage, but you will see superstitious craps players calling off bets all the time.

So, just ask the superstitious crap player if you could give him the money on the next don't bet he wants to call off, and have him leave the bet up, and you get it if it 'hits'. You are effectively playing craps with an advantage! You are wagering even money on what you should be laying 2 to 1, 3 to 2, or 6 to 5, depending on the number.

Now who told you the player couldn't over come the house edge no matter how you bet and NOBODY could beat craps?

I'll leave it up to you to post with another method of beating one of these "unbeatable" casino games.