My question regards the winnings I can expect from my card-counting endeavors. I'm hoping you can help me in estimating my rate of return, or direct me to contact someone in the know.
At the casinos I frequent, it's typically a 6-deck shoe game, with penetration ranging from 1-1.5 decks cut off (most of the dealers chop off 1.25 decks). Table rules are: double any two cards (except a natural, obviously), resplit up to four times, one card only on split aces, no surrender. Dealers hit soft 17s.
I use a simple, balanced plus-minus counting method: 2-3-4-5-6 is plus-one, and 10-J-Q-K-A is minus-one (7-8-9 is neutral). No side ace-count.
I employ a "true-count-minus-one" method; that is, I divide the running count by the remaining decks to ascertain the true count, then subtract one from the true count to determine how many units to bet (the "bet number"). My base unit is $50, with a $6,000 bankroll. My bet spread currently is $25-$200, laid down in the following manner:
Bet number (BN) is zero, or negative: bet $25.
BN = 1: bet $50
BN = 2: bet $100
BN = 3: bet $150
BN = 4 or higher: bet $200
(I realize this is a wider betting spread than some would recommend; however, I have yet to sense any heat from casino personnel while using it.)
In playing the actual hands, I adhere to the plus-minus strategy tables laid down in Revere's "Playing Blackjack as a Business." So, most of the time I'm playing basic strategy, but I do vary my play depending on the true count in such situations as standing on 16 versus a dealer 10, whether to double down on some soft-hand situations, etc.
Knowing all this, is this enough information to estimate my rate of return, risk of ruin, etc.? I have read in several places that I can expect a 1.0% return in the long run; i.e., with my $50 base unit, $50 returned for every 100 hands played perfectly. But this seems high to me, because it seems like I find myself in a favorable count situation infrequently.
In other words: it doesn't seem to me that the higher-betting, favorable-count situations happen frequently enough to compensate -- and then some -- for the low-betting, crummy-count situations, but . . . my intuitions are obviously no match for mathematical probability calculations, which is where I'm looking for somebody's assistance.
Any help you can give me here, I will appreciate greatly.
