Multi-card 16 vs 10: Question for BJ Veterans

I was wondering which of the two hand composition strategies below is better for multicard 16 vs 10.

"Rule of 45" from Blackjack Bluebook II where the player will stand on any 16 card total that includes a 4 or 5 in the player's hand vs a dealer 10. IE 10,4,2 vs 10 the player will stand; 10,3,3 vs 10 the player will hit.

On the other hand, Composite BS from Casino Verite has the player standing on ANY 3 card(or more) total of 16 vs 10. So in both scenerios above the player would stand using the CV Composite BS.

I realize the difference is minimal but which of the above hand composition plays will do a better job of cutting the player's losses over the long run?

Thanks for any responses,

-MJ

MJ,

Of the two options you list, Renzy's Rule of 45 is closer to correct, but it misses a few cases. Read on!

Years ago, before I learned to count, I worked out the hard 16 vs. 10 hands using Eric Farmer's program (which is available for free at the link given below).

Initially, I was interested in a 4D, S17, DA2, DAS game. Later, I checked for a 2D, S17, D9, DAS game, and found no exceptions from the 4D game.

Dog Hand's Rule of 63 for 3-Card Hard 16's (3+3=6)

Oh what a night! Late December back in '63...

(This is a Rule of Paw, since dogs have no thumbs!)

For 3 card hands, mentally arrange the cards in high-to-low order (HTLO), with A's of course counting lowest of all. (Hint: don't try to rearrange the cards physically, as the dealer will whack your knuckles with the drop box paddle!) If the second card is a 6 or a 3, hit the hand, else stand. Thus, if you're dealt A-6 vs. a 10, and your hit card is a 9, you now hold 9-6-A (in HTLO). Since the second card is a 6, you hit. On the other hand, if you're dealt A-7 vs. 10, hit, and receive an 8, you now hold 8-7-A (in HTLO). Since the second card is NOT a 6 or 3, you stand. Note that both of these examples are correctly predicted by the Rule of 45.

Can you find the lone exception to Renzy's Rule of 45? Of the fifteen possible 3-card 16's, Fred's rule of thumb is correct for fourteen. I'll give you a few days to think about it!

Dog Hand's Rule of 62 for 4-Card Hard 16's (2+4=6)

For 4-card hard 16's vs. a 10, 30 possible arrangements exist. Of these, only 6 should be hit. Once again, mentally arrange the four cards in HTLO. If the second card is a 6 or a 2, hit, else stand. This rule has one exception: hit 10-3-2-A vs. a 10.

Examples:
(1) Given 7-5-2-2 vs. 10, you Stand, since the second card is a 5.
(2) Given 8-6-A-A vs. 10, you Hit, since the second card is a 6.
(3) Given 10-3-2-A vs. 10, you Hit: this is the sole exception!
Note that all of these are correctly predicted by the Rule of 45.

In fact, the Rule of 45 correctly predicts all of the hands that contain 4's or 5's. Among the remainder, however, it misses on the following five hands: 9-3-3-A, 9-3-2-2, 8-3-3-2, 7-7-A-A, 7-3-3-3, all of which should NOT be hit, despite what the Rule of 45 proposes.

If you can keep all of this straight while playing, then why the hell don't you just learn to count the cards? ;-)

Dog Hand

And how about the Rule of "6s" (Griffin's T.O.B.)?

Thanks in advance.

Tim

Tim,

I don't know what you mean by the Rule of 6's in Griffin's magnum opus.

Please post a page reference to help me locate it.

Thanks!

Dog Hand

Rule of six: STAND on all multiple card totals of 16vT which don't contain a six. My belief is that this rule is more powerful and easier than the ones you mentioned.

Regards,
Tim

Tim,

Ah ha! Thanks for the reference; it wasn't in the index.

For three-card 16's, Griffin's Rule of 6 misses just one: 10-3-3 should be hit.

For four-card 16's, Griffin's Rule of 6 misses six: Hit 10-3-2-A and 10-2-2-2; Stand on 6-5-4-A, 6-5-3-2, 6-4-4-2, and 6-4-3-3.

I'll grant half of your assertion: Griffin's Rule of 6 is indeed easier than my Rules of 63 and 62.

Dog Hand

But you'll agree that Griffin's rule misses less than the "45" rule.

Thanks for doing the math.

Tim