mit movie

I don't agree with Green Baize on this issue. If a card counter, bad or otherwise, fails to understand the pit falls of standard deviation and is under bankrolled he can lose a huge amount of money. After all, the neccessity to bet high on plus counts puts more money on the table and makes the person more vulnerable to the vagaries of standard deviation.

As an aside, most of the reason that the Casino offers the free odds bet in Craps has to do with this issue. If you bet the pass line for $5. and then take 100x odds on the free odds bet, how many of those people know that you should have about 150 times this large bet, [$500. x 150 = $75,000.], as your available bankroll?

Kevin Spacey's production company, Triggerstreet Productions, plans to make this film with MGM. Spacey will probably play the lead, an MIT instructor who heads a team of BJ players. Last I heard, filming still hasn't started yet because director Brett Ratner is busy with other projects. If they don't shoot by summer 2006, I have a feeling the project will be shelved.

The latest working title is (or was) "Breaking Vegas", which is apparently also the title of a similarly-themed TV show (which I haven't seen). Previously, the tentative title was "Breaking House".

I've read elsewhere that the real MIT team's demise was a lack of familiarity with casino counter-measures. In other words, they played a winning game but were eventualy caught by the upstairs folks. I have no idea if this is true.

Counting is not enough. Not many "new ones" will master other aspects of the game. Besides, not many will have sufficient bankroll to be a threat. 9 out of 10 won't make it; they'll fill casinos' coffers. Gains from these guys will far outweight profits lost to that "capable one", so casinos should only welcome wannabes. I know, reality is diferent. casinos prefer to make less money, as long as they know they're unbeatable (strip). We'll see.

I don't agree with Green Baize on this issue. If a card counter, bad or otherwise, fails to understand the pit falls of standard deviation and is under bankrolled he can lose a huge amount of money. After all, the neccessity to bet high on plus counts puts more money on the table and makes the person more vulnerable to the vagaries of standard deviation.

If you had numerous underfunded card counters, some will lose, some will break even and some will win. If they have an advantage, the sum of the results will favor the counters, not the casino.

As an aside, most of the reason that the Casino offers the free odds bet in Craps has to do with this issue. If you bet the pass line for $5. and then take 100x odds on the free odds bet, how many of those people know that you should have about 150 times this large bet, [$500. x 150 = $75,000.], as your available bankroll?

Since you don't have an advantage, the optimal bet on the free odds bet is $0 regardless of the size of your bankroll.

The post seemed to contain two notions.

The first, that if a whole lotta folks watched the movie and learned basic strategy, and played it well, that would hurt the house, and I'd agree. Any flat bettor that learned even a tidbit of BS would be a marginally better player.

The second notion, regards those that go on to try their hand at counting. I don't think I agree.

All things being equal, I'd imagine like when Thorpe hit the shelves, the new bad players will far out number the good, so much so that what new money is won from the house will never overwhelm the new money that is lost.

Bring on the movie I say -the gamblers are coming in droves already!

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BTW, did you get caught using a second alias recently?

They seem pretty sure of their facts. Of course the two lead dogs there acccussed VN of being me .. twice (and were going to post the 'proof') .. but of course they were in error.

Just wondering.

:)

It doesn' take much effort to get an edge at blackjack. Be reasonably correct with the count, play basic strat (or better yet CBS), and have the balls to spread massively and immediately is all it takes. The skills required for the individual to be a successful counter are way overestimated. It's not skills that are required, but balls and a bankroll. (again for the individual counter).

action x edge = EV. The casino can get the best of a large chunk of underfunded counters, even completely bust many of them out, yet when the cumulative action of all bets are considered, the casino still must lose what it is supposed to lose.

Generally I feel like I'm operating without a net disagreeing with you or Panama Rick, but one last thing ..

> action x edge = EV.

Who could disagree with that? Not me. Just so the deviation dog stays asleep long enough to get some playing time in.

I'm just guessing that a lot more new teenie bankrolls with balls leave the movie theater and head for Vegas (dead men walking; or in this case, dead men running) than new big bankrolls with balls who can stand the flux.

Maybe not.

Have a good weekend.

In the transition from ploppy, to bs player to loosing counter to winning counter I have learned that counting was really easy for me.
The hard parts were:
Disciple to only play good games.
Spreading the proper amount.
Having a proper bankroll.
Having enough of an act to give me longevity without giving up EV
And the hardest thing for me was continuing to spread even when they are beating my butt.

But if the general point is that novice counters will cut into the house edge, they definately will and if you sim up a decent shoe game with a low spread and few indices, they probably do gain a very slight edge over the house.

Poor Counters will have negative EV, but not for the reason that they are under-bankrolled, etc.

The problem is that their playing strategy is poor.

A player who know solid BS and can �count a little� can get positive EV. The BS player is almost even with the House; it only takes a small amount of properly correlated bet variation to move you into the black.

The problem is that pseudo-counters don�t bother to learn BS. Or, they learn a little, and don�t use Index numbers, and make mistakes. Like in a plus count the stand on 15 v 7, because �a lot of 10s are out�.

The average ploppy plays to about a 2% disadvantage. That means that they have to get to a TC of about 4 in order to break even. If they are counting, and raising their bets at 2 or 3, they are enhancing casino profits.

BTW, there is an important practical conclusion to this. It concerns back-betting. When the casinos in my home town opened, they were so crowded you couldn�t get a seat. I looked into back-counting and back-betting on other hands. But when I studied the other players playing strategy, I realized that at a TC of 5, I only had a slight advantage. At TC of 3 I wasn�t sure that I had any advantage.
Keep this in mind if you think about back-betting on other players.

If all players played perfect basic strategy, the game of BJ would
soon be history. It's not a matter of profit, rather how much profit.
Each player that improves his game has an impact on industry bottom
lines. BJ literacy is much like computer literacy in that it evolves
and so must the counter measures that we all have seen. The impact from AP's good or bad is close to zero in the big picture.

OK, let me be more specific, although I'm gratified at all the response my first ever post received. The reason the new counters, (assuming this movie ever gets made), will mostly fail is because they will mostly be college kids who will cave in the 3rd time the cocktail waitress makes it to the table. I have experience here, I run a restaurant in a university area; my business depends on how well I can judge college kids. What I think may be hopeful is that these kids hate feeling like they're being ripped off; they will argue with me over coupons all day long, using any angle they can think of. If they can be shown that they're being ripped off, it will will have a huge impact on where they spend their money. The debate I want to start is not whether or not more or less counters are good or bad; but whether there is an opportunity to convince tourists of an age group important to the strip that they're being ripped off by the 6/5 games being offered there.

When you say "back counting", do you mean betting underneath a sitting player and have that player make the betting decisions? I ask this because I have had a few people attempt to do this (when I was counting) and the TC was out of orbit. I wonder if the casino is aware of when/why folks bet on another; aside from "having a feeling"

Second, who in their right mind would take to learning a counting strategy without learning BS???? They gotta be the ones who purchased the infomerical book on home cures of deadly dieseses sold by the guy who went to jail for making false promises.

I would agree that an overbetting player doesn't favor the casino - on the contrary! But if he counts so badly that he makes big bets when he is actually at a disavantage he will be most welcome to the casinos.In that case,even playing correct strategy wouldn't help.Another type of bad player would chase losses for lack of discipline.I think there must be plenty of them.

Francis Salmon

> Second, who in their right mind would take to learning a counting strategy without learning BS????

The masses that just left the movie theater and are running to the airport heading to Vegas; that's who. They all already KNOW how to play blackjack. This new found counting thing was all they were lacking to win millions.

"Let's see now, it's one for good and two for bad. I got it!"

You can see them on the airplane now, head down, praying ..

"Oh god of variance, please deliver my horribly small and inadequate bankroll from those rat bastard deviation dogs of hell."

From Francis Salmon:

"I would agree that an overbetting player doesn't favor the casino."

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Myself

If that player loses his bankroll and can no longer play, then the amount that he lost certainly favors the Casino. However,I will admit that I was wrong in the first instance. Even though some people play perfectly and lose because of bankroll problems, the money that is made by other counters is much greater than the money that is lost by those who lose their entire bankroll.

"If that player loses his bankroll and can no longer play, then the amount that he lost certainly favors the Casino. However,I will admit that I was wrong in the first instance. Even though some people play perfectly and lose because of bankroll problems, the money that is made by other counters is much greater than the money that is lost by those who lose their entire bankroll." -S.A.

I think the premis of the original post is not 'other counters' in general. It is other 'new' counters that by virtue of seeing the movie would rush out and start laying down bets.

Some will prepare and win. Some will get lucky and win. In my opinion, an overwhelming majority will lose.

If I owned a casino and could cater to only those new players who, by virtue of watching Kevin Spacey beat up Vegas, wanted to play and count blackjack, I think I'd be having to shovel profits out of every door and window in the place.

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IF I'M WRONG, and I could be, I understand better why a casino is paranoid of counters. If what I am hearing is true .. that underfunded, under prepared, and foolish counters till pose a profit risk .. it's no wonder they sweat as much as they do.

You asked:

When you say "back counting", do you mean betting underneath a sitting player and have that player make the betting decisions? I ask this because I have had a few people attempt to do this (when I was counting) and the TC was out of orbit.

I had said When the casinos in my home town opened, they were so crowded you couldn�t get a seat. But when I studied the other players playing strategy, I realized that at a TC of 5, I only had a slight advantage.

Back-counting is a standard technique where you count the Shoe without sitting at the table and playing. If the shoe is positive, then you play.

Back-Betting means betting on another player�s hand, with them controlling the playing decisions. In some overseas markets, this is such a common practice that the casinos have formula rules regulating it. In much of the United States, this is an �unofficial� practice. You give money to player to play for you, hoping to get paid if the bet wins.

There are a lot of reasons why Voodoo players want to do this. Sometimes they think one spot on the table is �lucky�, and they want their money on that spot. Sometimes a player wants to join a game, but doesn�t want to �mess up the flow�. So rather than open a new spot, the player will ask to bet on somebody else�s hands.

If people wanted to bet on your hand, it may have been because you had won a couple of big bets in the high counts, and they thought you had the �hot hand. �

Sam Runner already gave a good answer to your other question: Second, who in their right mind would take to learning a counting strategy without learning BS???? , but I will add more.

Most players start card-counting before they have mastered BS. They may know to hit 12 v 2,3, but they don�t know the soft-doubling strategy. Also, they have �learned BS� the way they would learn dates for a History test. If they were given a one hour written test, they could probably recall them during that time. But they have not internalized them.