math help

I'm not really a math wizz, so I'm asking for a little help. I've been playing blackjack fulltime in AC for 14 months now, I've accumulated just over 1200 hours and am ahead 23,000. (just under $20/hour) I use a small 1-4 spread ($25 base bet to $100 at +3) I dont play negative counts of minus 1 or more. Is this a normal return or less/or more than expected. standard ac rules, 8 decks with about 75% pen. appreciate your help.

75% pen at 8 decks is _not_ a great game. Winning .8 units an hour with that spread is right on what CVCX would suggest assuming hilo, full indices, spread as you gave... You should see some very wild bankroll fluctuations with that game as well...

yes, I'm still not very comfortable with the fluxation part of it, but I guess it goes with the territory. Still trying to build a larger bankroll so I'll feel more comforable .

it is just a lousy game (8d 75% pen). big counts will be rare, and even if they happen, the shuffle card comes out before the good cards fall...

burn 'em for all you can however, sounds like you have it under control (or as much under control as you can have it... :) )

You have been somewhat lucky.

I punched your numbers into BJRM. I had you bet $25 min, $50 at 1, $75 at 2, and $100 at 3. I also set it up for you to sit out hands when the TC<=-1. (You play when the TC >-1). You earnings are less than $15 per hundred round. I am going to guess that these are crowded tables, and so you get less than 100 rounds per hour. You EV may very well be less than $10.

For the specific spread that I put it, your 4.78%.
If you only played hands where the TC>+1, your EV would increase to almost $17 per hundred.

Now I want to address the issue of your spread. If you can bet $100 at a TC of +3, then you can bet $125 at +4, and 150 at 5. This will obviously make you more money, but it will decrease your RoR if you are playing negative hands.

For example, I took the first spread that I mentioned, and put in best of 5 units at 4 and 6 units at 5. This raised the EV almost $3 an hour, and it lowered the RoR from 4.78% to 4.16% This was on a $2300 bank. If you have another bank, the RoR would be different, but the effect would be the same: the stronger spread would have the lower RoR.

It will take you almost forever to get into the Long Run. The SCORE for your 1-4 game is down around 10. This means that it take 1000 hours at 100 rounds per hour to get to 1 N0, which is one measure of the Long Run (And 1 N0 isn�t that long of a long run.)

One other thing you can try to do is to spread to two hands in positive counts. This will increase your win rate, decrease the time to the Long Run, and you can set it up to maintain or reduce your RoR.

Here's my analysis...its probably worth
less than what you paid for it....

most folks leave the casinos with less than they come in with, and you are ahead $22,000!

Your strategy is very similar to the White Rabbit style that Don S. wrote about in Blackjack Attack, Chapter 13. Was that by design?

The White Rabbit strategy call for a player to enter a table only at the top of the shoe, and play as long as the True Count is above -1.

Your application is a little different than his, as his simulation spread 1-12 for an Atlantic City game with 6 out of 8 decks dealt. He simulation resulted in a win rate of 1.02% bet for every dollar bet. He also provided some other data elements in that chapter and other parts in the book that I used to get an idea about how much you bet during your 14 months, and how your results compare to his simulation.

Using a frequency of TC chart I figured your average bet was $28.50 per hand

Freqency Bet Average Bet

Percent Amount Weighted
True Count >
<-1 29.84% 0 0.00
-1 to 1 45.64% 25 11.41
1 11.67% 50 5.84
2 6.38% 75 4.79
3 2.92% 100 2.92
4 1.93% 100 1.93
5 0.80% 100 0.80
6 0.44% 100 0.44
7 0.19% 100 0.19
8 0.12% 100 0.12
9 0.04% 100 0.04
10 0.03% 100 0.03

100.00% 28.50

Also, from the simulation, Don S. thought you would play 75.7 hands per hour with that strategy if it took you 6 round (about 3 minutes) to get to another table when you leave one.

Thus, 1400 times 75.7 times 28.5 comes to $3,020,430 worth of bets during your playing time. And finally, your win rate would be .72%, ($22,000/$3,020,430)...

That your win rate would come out less than the simulations win rate of 1.05% is appropriate to me it seems. Your spread is less, you probably don't split tens as the simulation did, you are not error free, and you may well not have been able to get in 75 hands per hour due to crowd conditions. Further, I believe most professional players usually fall short of expectation by 20-35% for various reasons.

Your win rate is good, but as I am sure you realize, it could be better if you spread more...however, how much more you can spread you can get away with is a matter for more experienced players to comment upon.

Anyway, I applaud you for sticking with it for so long, as 1400 hours of play over 14 months is quite a bit of play packed into a short time...indeed, it is as if you played every day for 2 & 2/3's hours for that time.

One final question though. You do have any other source of income don't you? It seems to me that $22,000 over 14 months is not a lot to live on in the New York area.

It looks like you used BR=$23,000, and on that basis my check on BJRM agrees with yours. And I agree with the rest of your comments, (for what it's worth, since my expertise is nowhere near yours).
However JohnMark didn't say what his original BR was. Even if it was decent, say $10,000, his original Win/100 would have been under $15 with ROR between 26% and 38% depending on whether he exits below 0 or below -1.
Seems to me he was extremely lucky to survive and get to where he is now. I sure wouldn't have had the nerve to play that game in that way. Things look good now though, with a BR well over $23,000.
Congratulations to him!

John,
I say keep doing what you are doing. Some have said in other posts that you need a 1:15 spread to make any money in AC. Thats not true by my experience or yours. I think its almost ridiculous to say you have been lucky to survive when you have been putting in the hours and months you have. Computer sims are only sims. There is more than one way to skin a cat, you have obvoiusly found something that works for you. If it aint broke, dont fix it. as you bankroll grows you can go from 50-200 to make more $ and they (casino pit) probably wont bother you a bit.