Kicking ass, without counting.

So far this month, playing decent BS, and *not* counting, with 3:2 payout, 6 Decks, 75% (sometimes 80%, depending on dealer) pen., H17, DA2, DAS, No surrender ... (my bank is usually $500, and I start play with $100 in chips at $5 tables) ... here's my totals:

Trip 1: $40
Trip 2: $80
Trip 3: - $160
Trip 4: $220
Trip 5: $150
Trip 6: $150
Trip 7: $225
Trip 8: $700-$800 (estimate)
Trip 9: $215
Trip 10: $200

Won 9 out 10 trips.

Here's my little strategy:

Eventually -- *almost always* -- I'll get ahead pretty fast. Sometimes $50. Sometimes $100. Then I put away my bank. I work *only* with my winnings and I try to increase them. Usually, I do. If I lose them, I'm back to square one. I start over. I get ahead. If I hit a losing streak, I back out or bet the minimum. I don't panic.

Then I leave.

Is this just a bullshit win streak, or something I can rely on? I know I'll lose "in the long run" ... but the average family has 2.5 kids! Do you trust your skills and methods, or random percentages?

My plan is to learn how to count anyway, but even now I'm doing well. It almost seems *too* easy. I see players losing all around me, usually because they either can't leave, they panic and bet on losing streaks, they bet huge bets on *every* hand, they espouse weird theories (half seem to think they know exactly what card is coming next) or they don't even know BS.

Billy

Is this just a bullshit win streak, or something I can rely on?

Yes, this is a bullshit win streak. By using tight stop wins you will indeed win many more session than you lose. Soon enough you will have a session where you lose from the start (and several of them back to back) and lose back what you've won. In the end, if you play long enough without an edge, the casino advantage will take its toll.

If you are playing with an edge of any sort there would be no need to have these stop wins. The next hand of bj will be no different if you go home first. The amount of money you have when you walk in is not an indication of your overall status. If you are a recreational player then you would be wise to invest or spend the money, or use it to pay off debt. If you don't you will soon be convinced that you're really on to something and will start to increase the size of your bets. Then, instead of it taking many sessions to return the money it will take only a few... or perhaps just one big one.

but, DON'T allow yourself to acquire a false sense of security. It is easy to do when your results are as you posted. However, be thankful of the results of your play and especially the advise your getting now. Your playing methods won't work in the long run. 'YOU GOT LUCKY', is the term we used to use. I don't know what we call it now given there is no such thing as 'luck'. Maybe 'pure happenstance'.??? This is something the AP community needs to find a proper word for. Enough said.

My personal advise to you is:

Don't gamble your winnings. Use it to buy a book or two. Then study and practice. Learn and ask questions on this board. Go back fully equipped and kick azz with skill.

"I don't know what we call it now given there is no such thing as 'luck'.

Trying to shy away from using the word luck is ridiculous. It is a perfectly good word that is very descriptive and is usually not mis-understood.

That guy has been lucky.

I bought "The world's greatest blackjack book" by humble and cooper. Seems pretty good. Counting shouldn't be too hard at my casino -- everyone seems pretty nice and laid back, some dealers are really slow, and they have $3 tables.

I guess we'll see then.

b.

In the game you mentioned, assuming you play perfect basic strategy, you are bucking a house edge of about .6%. All the money management techniques in the world will not change this disadvantage, and eventually you will lose all your money to the house. Have fun with your streaks, we all have them. But be careful not to fall into the trap of thinking that somehow you have been granted a personal exemption from the rules of mathematics. Learn to count and the casino will now have the disadvantage. Its a good feeling to know you have the best of it. Good luck.

This is over a period of 3 months. As a ploppy I didn't keep great records. Each line represents 1 trip and anywhere from 1 to 12 hours. Keep in mind I played perfect BS and only played games with favorable rules.

$140.00
$200.00
$640.00
$200.00
$60.00
$150.00
$155.00
$100.00
-$175.00
$115.00
$17.00
$75.00

At this point I am up over $1600 and thinking I really know my shit. But then the dam breaks and I lose over $2000.

-$580.00
-$900.00
-$600.00
$405.00
$188.00
-$535.00
$200.00
$105.00
$16.00
-$50.00
$145.00
$60.00
$115.00
$115.00
-$470.00
-$300.00

After this I quit playing and started reading every BJ book I could get my hands on. I've been successfully counting for over 1.5 years now and am in the black. I just wanted to show you that it is possible to do what you have done without counting, but the odds will eventually catch up to you.

My wife once won $2,100 in a single sitting playing a $5 progression. Her initial bet was $5 and her max was $125. This is nothing but luck. She realized this, and you must realize that playing your current game will hold many future sessons of "bad luck." Think about it this way, when someone wins the lottery do you think that they are "good" at that game? Though you play with nowhere near the same disadvantage as a lottery player, you still have negative EV. The choice is between choosing your outcomes, or allowing your outcomes to choose you.

HJ

...is usually(emphasis added) not mis-understood.

'usually' leaves an opening for misconception on the part of the reader and therefore, I feel it's important how a person perceives the use of the words �luck� or �lucky�. Some who are uneducated on the issue can and will associate those words in the superstitious sense. While those of us who really do understand that there is no such thing as luck in the superstitious sense, do however still use the word when describing the result of an event or nicely gesturing the possible future outcome of something. This is okay as long as everyone takes it in the right context.

Maybe this is a little deep. But given the superstitions that lurk within some people who read the board, I feel uncomfortable using those words sometimes.

Positive or favorable variance. Same as luck but sounds un superstitious.
We all know about the reverse, negative variance.

After checking BJ21's Glossary and the dictionary, the word 'variance' doesn't really fit very well for solving the need for a proper word in this instance. I personally like the word 'happenstance'. It just purely means; the way in with things happen to occur. Or; the way in which the cards merely happen to flop on the table.

Let's say for instance; If a player doubled a soft 20 and caught an ace, was the player 'lucky' or _________?????? or, or what????

Suggestions please?

Let's see .. 'good luck' or 'good happenstance'?

I'm going with luck.

'Good luck' or 'good voodoo'?

I'm going with luck.

'Good luck' or 'good positive vibes'?

Again, for me, luck.

I understand what you are trying to say, but except for the deepest, darkest, part of Louisianna, [:)] luck just means ..... luck!

Let's see .. 'good luck' or 'good happenstance'?

OK, OK, I agree. In this instance 'good luck' is okay. 'Good' in front of 'happenstance' just doesn't work.

Remember though, the words luck' and 'lucky' are sometimes used as a noun, sometimes a verb, and sometimes as an adjective. There is still something wrong with the way these two words get used ��.. sometimes.

...luck just means ..... luck!

Oooooooooookaaaaaaaaaaaaay. Now I feel even more clear and confident on the subject. :-) LOL

Never-the-less, I think my point is hereby made. :-)

had about 6 visits in 4 yrs to Vegas . @ my favorite hotel..My winnings were better each time. Each time my basic strategy was played better/no mistakes..basic strategy does change for each set of table rules, but i use a well rounded/popular choice strategy. My betting strategy is simple..
I pulled heavy coin down last visit..
I think that possibly there is another factor that most people do not consider . The other factor includes all we dont know about like The other Dimension/perhaps God n stuff...We all figured the Earth was flat before..
Im gonna keep visiting..
Load it up with Pyramid power and you can guess where I play.
My Casino host probably has my record from day 1..
Why did they say I won 8550.00 US. when I'm sure I won only around 3k US in 24hrs of play??
Just for thought..
Not too serious here..
Take care.
LittleBuck

I think Blind f#$%&n luck works for that one Stealth Bomber

Spreading $5 to $125 at raking in $2100, it's amazing what chicks can get away with!! Any man wouldn't have got away with that. They would have been lucky to spread 10 units and win half that on a nickle table without a dealer dropping a dime on them to the pit critter. If you did last it'd have to be a hell of an act.

I don't believe she was spreading between $5 and $125. She was progressing. She wasn't counting. Any pit critter would allow this play from anyone.

Hal, did your wife receive any comps to try to lure her back to that casino?

A modestly casino executive would recognize her as a progression player, and let her play. But I won�t go far as saying �Any pit critter would allow this play from anyone. �.

There are some sweatshops which take action against even negative EV players. I think is she did at the Barbary Cost, and was winning, she would be backed off.