Implementing a Winning Strategy (Long)

I know you all don�t believe me about my strategy (not �system�) being a long-term winner (about .5 unit average per shoe), and that�s not why I am writing now � so please don�t respond about the legitimacy of my strategy.

Instead: Let�s say that, hypothetically, one has a credible strategy that cannot fail to give the player an advantage. I always thought that was the hard part � coming up with a strategy that can beat the house. But I�m starting to wonder if the real hard work is just beginning. To wit, card counters can be confident that they have a definite mathematical edge (barring �X� number of human mistakes), but they cannot play unrestrained. There is surveillance trying to stop them from taking the casino�s money. (As an aside, I�ve seen what looks like a neat book � �Blackjack and the Law;�- has anyone read it?). At what point will a typical casino kick you off their private property because you are just winning too much?

That brings me to the purpose of this post. I�m asking you old-timers: Hypothetically speaking, what are some strategies to actually implement a winning strategy in today�s casino, or what are some strategies to profit in general from the strategy � maybe even as a result of not having to even enter a casino. Here are some that I have come up with (note: for the below options, I could �prove� the validity of the strategy up front through the use of mock casino conditions such as playing, in a camouflaged manner, X number of hands (e.g., 200,000) with professional off-duty dealers and, say, $1 million dollars in fake money, at an undisclosed location for as long as it takes to convince any party that the strategy works):

1) Assemble a team of 5-10 players who can implement the strategy once for a week or so all across the world. For example, playing at $250,000 tables (or higher), one can make roughly $1 million per 3 hours of disguised play.

2) Hire an attorney to draft a sort of �contract� between myself and, say, 5 different purchasers of the strategy. The strategy would sell for about $10 million each.

3) Contact 10 of the top casinos via teleconference and offer to sell them the strategy in lieu of anyone from my team implementing it in their casino for, say, the next 5 years.

4) Find an investor or investors (e.g., Craigslist, E-bay) who would be willing to bankroll me and/or a team for one months worth of implementation of the strategy all over the world, including cruises if the odds are good enough.

Ironically enough, I consider myself a Christian � as many of you probably consider yourselves. So that�s the rub: I�m a little uncomfortable, as are my wife and son, with me spending a month or whatever in a casino � even if $300 million is possible and even though in my mind it�s not really �gambling� per se � it�s more of an extremely fast, low-risk return investment. I am too weak when it comes to the temptation (namely women and alcohol) that comes along with casinos and money. So does anyone have any ideas for the above hypothetical individual that has a strategy that does work but in reality will not be easy to implement?

Finally, do casinos not really care about individuals winning, say, $10,000-$20,000 per session per casino? In other words, do only the really �fat cats� (i.e., winners of, say, $50,000 or so at a time) attract the casino personnel�s attention, or will even �small� though consistent winners attract attention � even if it�s clear they are not card counting? I�m wondering if the casinos are like most of you: as long as they know that you are not counting, then they don�t really care how you bet? What are some ways to disguise the strategy? Are there �consultants� of sorts out there that I can hire without telling them what the strategy is but who can advise me of the particular characteristics of particular casinos, etc.?

So let�s not waste any more time and effort about the merit of my strategy. Please just comment on some ideas for safely implementing a long-term, winning non-progression strategy to generate the most profit? For example, please don�t write back with only, �Your idea is ridiculous� or �You�re delusional.� Instead I ask you to comment on ways to safely implement a winning strategy in today�s casinos.

Sounds like you are really confident about your strategy. You must be careful to consider laws of each state. In Nevada electronic devices are now illegal. Some people use their minds to calculate the roulette wheel yet still get kicked out because of their inexperience. You just can't walk into a casino looking like a young nerd and buy in for 10K cash without attention. If the casinos offer a game to the public and are willing to give out money then I say go for it.

...wear your best "Sunday-go-to-meeting clothes" and visit some of our high-limit rooms to see what the real world is about. Visit Caesars, Wynn and the Mansion casino at the MGM Grand. No matter how much confidence you may have in your "strategy", Las Vegas will not handle that kind of action from an unknown. Unless your name is known like Kerry Packer, Akio Kashiwagi or even Len Tose, all of which are now gambling in the great casino in the sky, even the highest of high limit rooms in Las Vegas won't fade the kind of action you are talking about.

As far as your item #3, trying to extort the casinos, forgeddaboutit. They will laugh in your face.

Hate to burst your bubble. A lot of fantasies come true in Sin City. Removing the kind of cash you are speaking of from the cage is not one of them.

Cobbson

True True True. You can give it a try but to last... That is the question. Even it you are from Asia and have part of your small finger cut off you will be eyed. Casinos are not stupid. They are in the business to make money. Can you make a 5K bet with steady hands?

.....Our young friend states "1) Assemble a team of 5-10 players who can implement the strategy once for a week or so all across the world. For example, playing at $250,000 tables (or higher), one can make roughly $1 million per 3 hours of disguised play."

Once again, my favorite song for gamblers.

I'd have...well nothing.

The highest I have seen lately is at Caesars HL room Vegas. 50K at BJ posted table signs.
I've seen several private rooms at Venetian with only 1 table in the room but no posted limits. Also saw 2 tables at Caesars/Horseshoe Indiana with only 3 betting spots but no posted limits.

..Mainly as a marketing gimmick set up in the year before the recession hit. The high end casinos will still handle almost any action, if like I said earlier, you are known. That is not to say that they will allow million dollar blackjack bets, even if your name is Gates or Buffet. With these guys, the "Bigger Bankroll" theory shifts to the other side of the table and obviously no casino in the world could handle a billion dollar swing, but these guys probably could.

I've seen $200,000 baccarat bets in A.C. in the early years. Those days are over.

Cobbson

...The old guy in the tux who you think is Frank Sinatra, is really Sammy Davis, Jr. in white-face makeup doing his Frank S. impersonation. Nobody knows this except Frank, Sammy and myself. They are gone so please don't tell anyone.

Cobbson

For a company with $2 billion in assets, $200,000 is waaaaaaay under kelley.

The real problem is, managers don't want to be on the hook for a left tail result even though it comes with the territory. How much money gets left on the table that way? I'd guess a great deal.

In fact, after what happened in the LTCM fiasco and given the egos of some billionaires I think I'd take my $1 million dollar min tables and wave it in their faces, and flush out the variance-lovers among them. Even if I had to spread the risk on the outside somewhat it would be well worth it from a marketing angle and in addition the ev would be great. Just be sure you either own the joint outright or have unusually smart stockholders.

Quote:

I know you all don�t believe me about my strategy (not �system�) being a long-term winner (about .5 unit average per shoe), and that�s not why I am writing now � so please don�t respond about the legitimacy of my strategy.

--I'll also try not to respond about the illegitimacy of your strategy.

Instead: Let�s say that, hypothetically, one has a credible strategy that cannot fail to give the player an advantage. I always thought that was the hard part � coming up with a strategy that can beat the house. But I�m starting to wonder if the real hard work is just beginning. To wit, card counters can be confident that they have a definite mathematical edge (barring �X� number of human mistakes), but they cannot play unrestrained. There is surveillance trying to stop them from taking the casino�s money. (As an aside, I�ve seen what looks like a neat book � �Blackjack and the Law;�-

--No time; have a couple of others, like one called "Beat the Dealer" and another called "Professional Blackjack".

New around here, eh kid?

has anyone read it?). At what point will a typical casino kick you off their private property because you are just winning too much?

That brings me to the purpose of this post. I�m asking you old-timers: Hypothetically speaking, what are some strategies to actually implement a winning strategy in today�s casino, or what are some strategies to profit in general from the strategy � maybe even as a result of not having to even enter a casino. Here are some that I have come up with (note: for the below options, I could �prove� the validity of the strategy up front through the use of mock casino conditions such as playing, in a camouflaged manner, X number of hands (e.g., 200,000) with professional off-duty dealers and, say, $1 million dollars in fake money, at an undisclosed location for as long as it takes to convince any party that the strategy works):

--I don't see how you could prove your system works without the buyers knowing exactly what the method involves. Do you really think someone would be so stupid as to fork over $10,000,000 after witnessing a demonstration set up with your cards, your dealers and your table, and at the same time not knowing what's involved in implementing this scheme? Anybody willing to do that wouldn't have 10 mil in the first place.

1) Assemble a team of 5-10 players who can implement the strategy once for a week or so all across the world. For example, playing at $250,000 tables (or higher), one can make roughly $1 million per 3 hours of disguised play.

2) Hire an attorney to draft a sort of �contract� between myself and, say, 5 different purchasers of the strategy. The strategy would sell for about $10 million each.

3) Contact 10 of the top casinos via teleconference and offer to sell them the strategy in lieu of anyone from my team implementing it in their casino for, say, the next 5 years.

--Like the man said, they'd laugh at you. Even if you could guarantee that, and even if it worked, how could they know your team members' brothers-in-law couldn't whack them instead? Or that somebody else would figure it out if the word got out that there's a new method afoot?

I'm not familiar with past discussions about your system, but if it involves key cards and so forth that's not exactly news.

4) Find an investor or investors (e.g., Craigslist, E-bay) who would be willing to bankroll me and/or a team for one months worth of implementation of the strategy all over the world, including cruises if the odds are good enough.

--I have absolutely no doubt the response you'd get from Craigslist would be overwhelming. I also have no doubt that anyone willing to even invest $100, a set which excludes all of the former, would immediately wonder why anyone with such a strategy needs anybody's help at all.

Ironically enough, I consider myself a Christian � as many of

--I wouldn't let that stop you, as some of the money-grubbin'est people I've ever known considered themselves "Christians".

you probably consider yourselves. So that�s the rub: I�m a little uncomfortable, as are my wife and son, with me spending a month or whatever in a casino � even if $300 million is possible and even

--tell them you'll donate $297 million of it to the poor and cut them in for $1 million each and see how fast the objections melt away.

though in my mind it�s not really �gambling� per se � it�s more of an extremely fast, low-risk return investment. I am too weak when it comes to the temptation (namely women and alcohol) that comes along with casinos and money. So does anyone have any ideas for the above hypothetical individual that has a strategy that does work but in reality will not be easy to implement?

--No woman is worth $300,000,000 (except perhaps Ellie Woods).

You are trying to monetize an idea, without having to reveal or implement the idea. Good luck with that.

Finally, do casinos not really care about individuals winning, say, $10,000-$20,000 per session per casino? In other words, do only the really �fat cats� (i.e., winners of, say, $50,000 or so at a time) attract the casino personnel�s attention, or will even

--If they think they understand you, they won't fear you. If they don't fear you, they'll let you play.

�small� though consistent winners attract attention � even if it�s clear they are not card counting? I�m wondering if the casinos are like most of you: as long as they know that you are not counting, then they don�t really care how you bet? What are some ways to

--Most places would fear inside theft or similar if you just kept magically winning for too long.

disguise the strategy? Are there �consultants� of sorts out there that I can hire without telling them what the strategy is but who can advise me of the particular characteristics of particular casinos, etc.?

--That's like a woman putting a blindfold on somebody and then asking them if she looks nice in a dress.

I'm sure both you and she will get the answer you desire.

So let�s not waste any more time and effort about the merit of my strategy. Please just comment on some ideas for safely implementing a long-term, winning non-progression strategy to generate the most profit? For example, please don�t write back with only, �Your idea is ridiculous� or �You�re delusional.� Instead I ask you to comment on ways to safely implement a winning strategy in today�s casinos.

--Do whatever it is you are doing in as close a manner to the typical gambler as possible.

I suspect that won't be difficult at all.

That will be 10 years' supply of Lawry's Prime Rib gift certs., please. Cash also accepted.

Sammy and Franky I can dig, but if you're gone too...who's posting this?

Yes, I think $50,000 is more realistic than $250,000. By the way, does anyone know why they might offer 3 betting spots with no posted limits as opposed to 5 or 7 betting spots with no posted limits. It's seems that if I were the house, I'd want to offer as many betting spots as possible.

Never seen 3 betting spots on a table except here. I have seen a few casinos with 4 spots but those places were low limits <$200. I suppose the casino mentality with 3 spots is that it encourages private play. Most high rollers take 1 hand and some will take 2 hands. It is unusual to see players take 3 hands or more. Most casinos allow a maximum of 3 hands. If a high roller opens the 3 spot table with his partner/bimbo in tow and wants wants to take 2 hands he has the option to let the partner/observer/bimbo to play a additional hand thereby locking up the table for a private game. It is in the casino interest to deal to as many hands as possible but catering to high rollers is a art.

Thanks Tahoe Scout (hope I got your name right) for your reply. I was checking out online blackjack last night (live dealer as well as computer dealer), and it seemed like some limited to 3 spots as well. So, do you think that the brick and mortar casinos limit each patron to about 3 betting spots because they want as many folks as possible to gather around the table, or perhaps there is another reason why they limit a player to 3 spots? I guess I'm curious - If a lone player is consistently making use of 7 betting spots simulatenously at about, say, at least $2,000 per hand, why would the casinos frown on that?

I really can't say why the house limits players to a certain number of hands (like 3). It is the house rules for some casinos but not all. Casinos have rules for everything. Some rules are just made up with no reason or understanding. Sometimes bosses can change those kinds of rules. Some casinos will let a player take more hands than 3. If you want to take the entire table then ask the PB first. I have seen players take the entire table (7 spots). If you take the entire table of more than 4 spots you will have to stand up to move around to each hand. Some casinos will not let you stand when you play. If you get a game of playing all spots with big bets you will stand out like a sore thumb, draw a crowd and the casino will not forget you. Why would you want to do that?

Yeah, really, we don't need any more heat than there already is, right?

What's the most you've ever bet on a hand of blackjack? In a real live casino, I mean?

There are valid reasons for a casino to limit a player to three spots, the most obvious being that other customers should be allowed to join the table. Another point is reducing fluctuations but the most important one is speed.The time used by a lone player to place and collect bets on all 7 spots with the freqent change operations entailed by this will bring the game to such a crawl that it's certainly more interesting for a casino that a highflyer bets 5000 on one spot than 7 times 2000.But even if the maximum is 2000 per spot, the turnover will be greater if that player bets only two or three spots.
The flip side of this is that the AP should also limit himself to three spots even if he bumps into maximum (co-variance,card and time consumption will annihilate the whole benefit of the bigger action).The only exception occurs at the end of the shoe when the cut card could come out any time. Just yesterday I was playing alone at a 200max table . I had been rather unlucky throughout the shoe betting 3 spots when the count was still double-digit one and a half decks from the end. In (faked) disgust I covered all 7 spots with 200.I got two blackjacks and three doubling opportunities and in the end the dealer busted with his 6 up for a total win of 2200 in this single round. Since the pit boss was watching I had even refrained from splitting tens. At least, I had brought down my session loss to an acceptable 1500.
A positive side effect of covering a maximum number of spots at the end is that you get deeper penetration.

Francis Salmon