How much bigger will my advantage be?

I play in a 6 deck shoe where the dealer hits soft 17, BJ pays 3-2, 65-70% penetration, DD after split and DD on any 2 cards. I play in Montreal at a government casino and they have spots that can be played behind the player. You bet your money behind the player but you don't make any decisions. The player sitting at the table makes all the decisions. What would be my advantage if I were to back count and only bet when the count was in my favour? How much better would my advantage be? They are not legally able to bar anyone from this casino so I don't have any worries about being caught.

Are you suggesting that you back-bet on other players, but they will make the playing decisions? In that case, your edge is based upon their skill level. Suppose the seated player�s strategy is about 1% below BS. Then it takes about 2 more true points to get any edge. That is, you may not have an edge until the TC gets to +3.

You could improve your situation if you brought BS cards, and were able to convince the seated player to follow them. Even better if you brought cards that were correct for higher counts. If you can�t make your own cards, then using a Single Deck BS would be an improvement.

Now as to barring. Just because they can�t bar doesn�t mean they have to eal you a game. I have been Rejected at casinos which were not supposed to bar. In fact, now that I think about, my ejections this year (3 of them) consisted of counter-measures. These are as effective as a back-off.

To many a professional player the worst thing that ever happened to B.J. was the courts deciding (in Atlantic City for example) that card counting was not just cause for ejecting a patron. This led to the casinos taking counter-measures such as dealing 8 deck shoes where they reshuffle at will, or simply cut the shoe in 1/2 until YOU leave, or change YOUR permissible bet spread to 1 - 2 times the table minimum while permitting the amateurs the full betting spread that they started at, and the placing of prominent signs that disallow anyone from "mid-shoe entry"

No, I'm talking about an actual spot behind the player sitting down at the table. Intead of only having 7 betting places on a table, at the Montreal casino, they have 14; but, only the front spot has the right to make decisions. You never have to make any jump in bet size because you are keeping a good size bet at all times (2-4 units) and you are only betting when the true count is in your favour. What would my advantage be in this case? You just need to pick a player that knows basic strategy.

If the player uses correct basic strategy ... you will be upset when you enter at a healthy PLUS count and he proceeds to hit 16 vs. dealer 10 as the most commonplace example.

Most of your gain comes from proper bet sizing, but your edge may be averaging (less than) 1.5% on (perhaps) 25 hands per hr. If that is so and you bet an average of 3 units of $25 that means that your expectation will be 1.5% of $75 times 25 or approx. $28/hr

However, that is the Long Term Equity The Standard Deviation is rather large - resulting in huge swings of fortune. After all, you will need good feet to find 100 hands in an evening for about $100 on average. FREQUENTLY you will have a losing session - depending in how many hands you actually wager - you can probably expect to win about 70% of the time and lose nearly as much 30% of the time.

If you play 10 sessions in a month and win $100 on 7 of them and lose $75 on 3 of them your result will be $700 - $225 = $475 / 10 = $47.50 per 3 hr. session for an expectation of $16/hr. THIS will require a substantial (in-pocket) bankroll. Are you willing to risk rather substantial amounts of money with absolutely NO guarantee of winning in the short run. The long term may take years (!) to approximate.

Are we excited yet? L.O.L.

No, I'm talking about an actual spot behind the player sitting down at the table. Intead of only having 7 betting places on a table, at the Montreal casino, they have 14; but, only the front spot has the right to make decisions.

That's what MathProf is talking about.

You never have to make any jump in bet size because you are keeping a good size bet at all times (2-4 units) and you are only betting when the true count is in your favour.

It may not be in your favor. Reread MathProf's post.

What would my advantage be in this case? You just need to pick a player that knows basic strategy.

So you think this is common?

ETF

First of all, Montreal shoe game (as of 3 weeks ago) is 8 decks H17, DAS and they cut about 3 to 3.5 decks out of play. Ouch !

Take a look at your advantage backcounting this game and take into consideration that most of the players you will bet on will play their hands badly and you won`t play it , period.

Second, I HAVE SEEN "WANNABE COUNTERS" on my last visit to the casino. They would backcount and vary their bets from 25-50 to 2 hands of 200-250, all the pitbosses know them and they give them a worse cut, maybe something like 4 decks out of play. To add to this, they are making a lots of playing decisions mistakes...

All in all, if you have a lots of money, and would like to play to a $17/hour EV game, go for it but I will never understand. This place should be left alone and die because all it has of a casino is ...the name.

anyone with these rules and especially poor penetration. I don't believe you could beat this game if they let you sit down with a calculator and count openly.

jarrett40