How many of you are actually making money at the casino?

Hi everybody,

How many of you have been deceived into thinking that you can actually make money at the casino? I think I've been had, I spent countless amount of money on books and software(Books - Professional BJ, Blackjack Attack, Blackjack for blood...Software - Casino Verite, Blackjack 6-7-8, Knock out blackjack,smartcard, blackjack risk manager 2002, simulations, greenchip member...) I practice very hard and follow their instructions I still can't win. I think I must have lost at least $50,000 within a year,I swear with my hand on a stack of bibles. I get really frustrated!

Below is the same answer I gave your post in the Green Chip forum:

I have a long track record of winning, year after year, so I'll ask you some questions and make some observations. Not everyone is capable of winning at blackjack. In fact, the overwhelming majority of people are NOT capable of winning.

1. Are you smart? I think the importance of sheer intelligence is underrated as a factor in blackjack and casino success. It's not so much a matter of needing great analytical skill as it is the ability to multi-task successfully, as well as the ability to quickly analyze opportunities. An IQ of 130 should be more than sufficient to master the game. This corresponds roughly to an ACT score of 29 or an SAT score of 1280. If your ACT score was below 24 or your SAT was below 1000, you simply might not be quick enough to master the game, although others may disagree with me on this.

2. Are you disiplined? Do you often (or ever) raise your bet after a loss even when your betting system says you shouldn't, simply because the dealer "can't" win another hand and you want to get even? If you break the rules of a winning betting system, it ceases to be a winning betting system, and in the long run you will lose. If you are a gambler by nature and are just trying to count so you will have better "luck" gambling, you are headed to a pit.

3. Are you playing good games? The best games are those you'll probably never, ever find. For example, I have $6,000 in lifetime winnings from games where I was paid double on blackjack. I have had royal flushes doubled for an extra $14,000 in payouts. I have about $30,000 in lifetime winnings from playing against early surrender. I have about $70,000+ in lifetime winnings from playing single deck blackjack. My record with ordinary shoe and double deck games is less impressive, although I'm still a good winner at these games. Certain games simply can't be beaten and thus should not be played.

4. Are you using a good system? The systems you describe seem pretty weak. Why aren't you using the easy to use hi-lo count? I find Stanford Wong's books and advice to be the best out there, and I've read a lot of books. He describes the hi-lo system well and has all the charts. Kenny Ustons books are interesting and worth reading, too, but Wongs are best for ordinary people.

Now here is some free advice:
1. Read Wong's books and master the hi-lo counting system. Read his book on video poker and buy and practice with the Bob Dancer presents Dean Zamzov video poker game (www.zamzone.com). Video poker opportunities often spring up our of nowhere, and you need to be able to capitalize on them. Also, vp is a good way to earn free or reduced price hotel rooms.
2. For the next year, limit yourself to a $5 minimum bet and a $30 maximum bet. This spread and bet level won't let you win any real money, but if you put in the hours and follow the rules, you should win. And if you lose, well you won't be out any real money. Limit your video poker play to quarter machines. Do NOT, under any circumstances, increase these bet levels until you have established a long-term, winning track record. Then you can increase them slightly, establish winning tract record and so on.
3. The above advice seems simple, but most people can't or won't follow it. For example, you may have a mental need to be seen as a big shot, and are thus unable to gamble for $5 per hand. If you are one of these people, be honest with yourself and gamble recreationally, preferably for lower stakes, low frequency and use what knowledge you have to at least cut the house edge.

Best of luck to you and others who are tying to master the game.

I don't know anything about BJ but I know a little about numbers and analysis of data. FWIW I'm learning advantage play to better myself, to become sharper and more analytical, also cuz I just happen to think Vegas rocks.

I really like the fact that you posted intelligence and disciple right up there together; there's something universal about that grouping.

Allow me to drill down a little deeper, if I may. Here's my theory so far:
1. I don't think you really have to understand why counting systems work; for example, you don't really have to understand why removing a five from the deck increases the player's advantage by x%; all you really have to know is to add "1" to the running count.
2. On the other hand, it strikes me that if you really don't understand bankroll and bet optimizing, you're sunk. I suppose you can understand this analytically or intuitively. But one way or the other, you really have to understand this stuff, or else eventually you will lose, count or no count. Am I on track on this?

I haven't found the right answers to my question. Intelligence is not a problem, I graduated from University of Wahsington with a 4 year degree in Electrical engineering, so I do make a good living. Anyway, here's my game. Shoe game, 6 deck pen. 4 1/2 I use Hi Lo with indices according to Don from Blackjack Attack. Double deck 50% pen. I use Omega II with ace side count, same indices. What could I have done wrong?

Buy one book, Professional blackjack. Learn the Halves system, but
double the values and divide by half decks to get true count. The
rest of the crap you have bought appears to have kept you from
seeing the forest because of the trees.

forget the hi lo.use a good 2 level unbalanced countand forget the rest.

Those game conditions don't sound all that great, so I am guessing that you are somewhere in the Midwest or East. If I had to choose between those games, I would take the shoe and Wong. Otherwise, your edge is not very good.

If you aren't winning, the first thing I would question is your betting ramp. For 6 deck game, you should use at least a 1 to 10 betting ramp. For a long time I wasn't winning because I wasn't using a large enough ramp.

My finger was too quick,the first time.

>double the values etc. .......<
This advice I missed in Wong's PB.
I think handling the Indices is like
hi/lo,depending on the TC.
Is the Halves system as good for
the DD game like a 2 level count like
Hi-Opt. or Omega 2.
Your comment appreciated Rainer,thanks.

That fever looks awful creepy!...

it really doesn't matter what count you use as long as you use it well. In fact, for shoes, mutilevel counts just aren't worth the trouble.

horrible games to choose from...you should be using a monster spread (20:1 or better) coupled with some selective wong-outs. If you're just spreading 1-6 or 8 you're wasting your time. Even with a huge spread the variance is gonna be real big and it will take you around 200 hours to have an 83% chance of your being ahead. (assuming S17 DAS rules). If you've got a 50% DD H17 game you're really wasting your time.

My card-counting friend has been tracking his play since Jan. 12, 1996. Six-deck game, liberal rules, 70% pen, $10 to $50 spread, 103 sessions (one to three and one-half hours per session).
Net results: Up $260.50 after tips. Up $7,183.00 after match-play comps and IGT discount.

$10 to $50 on a 6d with 70% pen?? Unless the liberal rules include early surrender, or 2:1 BK payoffs, he's lucky to be up at all. And why report winnings after tips? From your figures, we can see how much he got from match play comps and discounts, but NOT what was won at the table.

ETF

He averages $5.00 in tips per session. His primary motivation for play is the profits from match play programs. The two main programs: $100 in match play chips with $1,000 buy-in. $225 in chips (which must be played) for $187.50, using IGT discount card.
I also consider him to be lucky to be ahead of the regular game, considering his bet spread and game conditions.

As others have stated, both of the game conditions that you are playing at are hopeless...If you look at page 185 in Stanford Wong's Proffesional Blackjack book, you will see that in the 6 deck game, when the penetration level is 52 cards left unplayed, you win $16. per hour...When it is 62, it drops to $13.---You are playing against a penetration level leaving 78 cards unplayed...That drops your expected profit down to about $7. per hour.

Since you are losing money, either your wagers are very high and standard deviation is preventing you from showing a small profit; or other aspects of your playing decisions are incorrect and you are not eliminating the Casino's built-in 0.5% advantage.

Although I won 250k over the last five years, I experienced twice set backs of 50k and right now I'm 30k under my alltime high.One year ended with a loss of 20k.
The fact that losses will eventually occur even with the best possible play is also confirmed by sims.
Our unlucky chap didn't state how many hours he spent at the tables but I think it's perfectly possible to be in the red with less than 1000 hours played in spite of good advantage play.

Another example to illustrate the importance of luck. I'm just back from a trip to a Casino with excellent conditions. After 30 hours of play I was down 4k. On my way home I stopped at a casino where the conditions were not nearly as good but I won 7k in 3 hours.

Francis Salmon