Free Forum - How long is long enough

Jgodz

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Dec 15, 2002, 10:36:13 PM

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How long is long enough

How long is long enough to tell whether my experience with counting has been statistically long enough to accurately inform me of what kind of proficiency I'm experiencing? The variance in this game can be wild.

I'm new to counting, but I've been practicing like mad (2 maybe 3 hours/day), and since I started my little spreadsheet I've logged 63.5 hours in 15 sessions (ranging from 1 hour to 12 hour sessions).

Although I'm slightly up, I'd like to know at what point (100 hours, 200 hours, ???) my profit/loss is due to skill, and not just variance.

Thanks

Bert Nommel

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Dec 15, 2002, 10:56:00 PM

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Depends on . . .

count system, #decks, penetration, rules and bet spread. Get Auston's BJRM and you can figure it out. You can also go to the Extreme Blackjack web site and read Brett Harris's article "The Theory of Optimal Betting Spreads" and calculate the "long run" yourself.

Bert

bigplayer

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Dec 16, 2002, 10:14:07 AM

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generally

about 80 hours at a great DD game and about 150 hours at a great shoe game and you should have a >83% chance of being ahead. (this is called N0 where your eV exceeds one standard deviation of variance) For very poor games this figure can be as high as 400 or more hours. As Bert says BJRM and CVCX will calculate this figure for any game you configure.

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How long is long enough