House advantage?

So I thought I would bring up a topic that I have been thinking about. I am a blackjack dealer and was wondering if the house advantage is really as large as mathematics says it is. There is an important factor that goes into figuring it out that I think is neglected, and that is the human factor. Dealers are human, and they make mistake. I talk to dealers everyday, and they are always talking about the mistakes that they've made. One told me that they were in AC and the dealer paid a 25 dollar blackjack 52.50! Dealing is a hard job and although we do the best we can, mistakes are inevitable. One important factor concerning the house advantage is that when the mistake favors the player, they won't say anything, but as soon as the mistake favors the house, the players will speak up. This idea leads me to believe that the house advantage isn't as large as math indicates. Any thoughts?

...but dealing cards in a casino may be hard on one's back, but it is not a "hard job". A construction worker, fireman, policeman, surgeon...I could go on forever, have, what I would call, hard jobs.

Back to your question about mispays, if the player favored mispay gets past the dealer, floor person and thr EITS, the player has earned it (I know many will take exception to this). Whether or not he returns the overpayment depends on several factors. In the houses I play, I would estimate a mispay favoring the player that gets through at about one every 300 hands, maybe even less often. Not sure if this is mathematically significant.

Cobbson

Mistakes obviously work both ways and many players will not catch a mistake that favors the house... especially if they're preoccupied with keeping the count or drinking and having a good time.

House advantage doesn't mean much because very few players play correct basic strategy, I'd guess less than 1% and even fewer who play with an advantage. Many people believe they play by the book but don't know the nuances to basic strategy for the particular rules; DAS, S17, Surrender etc. Also people tend to play "more conservative" when they bet big. For example standing on 14 vs. T or A just because they have a large bet out and are afraid to bust. So even if they know the right play they are sometimes afraid to make it.

Can anyone tell me what the average hold on Blackjack is? If everyone played perfect basic strategy the hold would be equal to the house advantage (less than 1%), but it's much much more.

I don't mean to compare dealing to the jobs like you describe. Obviously they're a lot harder. I only meant that mistakes happen, and was wondering the effect it might have when they favor the player. Dealing is mentally straining. Try it. Blackjack is the easiest by far, but the other games are harder. Try dealing for 8 hours and you will get tired. That's all I'm saying.

"Can anyone tell me what the average hold on Blackjack is? If everyone played perfect basic strategy the hold would be equal to the house advantage (less than 1%), but it's much much more."

The hold varies, but let's call it 15-20%. What you wrote above isn't true. You misunderstand what the hold is. It isn't the house advantage; if it were, it would be called that and not the hold, which means something different.

The hold is the percentage that a casino retains of the total buy-ins of the aggregate patrons. The reason that this number is different from the house edge is that the same buy-in can and is recycled by the player many times before he/she leaves the table.

Some players can make a $100 buy-in last for many, many hours. Eventually, let's say that they leave having dropped $20 after 4-5 hours of play. The hold is 20%. The house edge might be 1% or less.

Clear?

Don

For a player who plays perfect basic strategy and is quite careful watching the dealer, so that he always benefits from a dealer error but never is the victim of one, the house edge is clearly reduced.

I've never seen an attempt to quantify this. Any error has the potential to be substantial, especially one in which the player is paid for a losing hand.

So, now, maybe you can help us: on average, how many such errors a day do you think are made by the average dealer?

Don

It's kind of difficult to give a number. If I had to guess a number, for a fairly new dealer, I'd say as far as paying losing hands and pushes, probably one or two a night. Don't know if that's very significant or not. I'd say that the average dealer would make about 3 mistakes a week. More mistakes seem to be made with harder blackjack payouts and color conversions.

Now that I think about it, it's probably a higher number. For paying pushes and losing hands, I'd say that the average dealer makes about 2 a night.

Most casinos give their dealers a break. The dealers usually come on the table and have to be there for 40 minutes before their break. The break is usually 20 minutes. That total time spent at the table for a 8 hour shift is 6 hours. During that 6 hours at the table sometime that game is dead and there are no players. The dealer is standing at the table and is really not working. So the 6 hours is reduced even further. Now what about graveyard dealers or high limit dealers? They might stand at dead games for hours and not settle a single wager. Then there is the time when a dealer might get a early out (get to go home early) yet still gets paid for the shift. Dealing is a gravy job. You might get some felt under your fingernails.

It's one hour on and 20 minutes off in most places. I work swing shift, the busiest shift, so I usually have a full table, especially on 15 and 25 dollar tables. Your right about higher limit tables, which tend to be dead more often. As far as signing the EO and getting paid? Hah. That just doesn't happen. If you work for an hour, you get paid for an hour, not 8.

Try doing this roulette problem and see how long it takes you.

13 straight up at 35 to 1
17 splits at 17 to 1
5 corners at 8 to 1
7 streets at 11 to 1
and a line. at 5 to 1

Bill Zender thinks that typically player mistakes account for 0.7% of the house advantage. So for a Casino with a basic edge of 0.5% the real advantage would be 1.2%.
Actually, I thought this figure to be significantly higher, somewhere between 2 and 3 %. I might be right for Europe where virtually nobody plays BS.

Francis Salmon

In my experience, there are far more errors in favor of the house than in favor of the players.It's like they have been told "In case of doubt, take the money!". But it's psychologically explainable.
If they make too many errors in favor of the players they would lose their job.
The number of errors favoring the player is under normal circumstances insignificant.

Francis Salmon

...maybe once every other trip.

In Tunica several years ago I was told that the expected house edge in blackjack was 2%. They called this the Theoretical.

I thought it was only me see many more errors in the houses favor. I thought it was only my perception noticing the negatives.

My estimate is that there are 10 times errors in the houses favor. Maybe more

Your brain teaser is strictly math. With any practice odds can be calculated. That's why they have schools for that. I don't play roulette. Since you claim to be a 21 dealer on a busy shift here is a more likely challenge.
The table is full and you're dealing this pathetic 6DK game. All tourists with drinks and smokes. No one knows your name nor even cares.
You're in the middle of a shoe in the middle of the shift. The guy on first base is drunk and blows smoke in your face while making a double down. He spills the chips while attempting to match his original bet. You were giving him a card trying to hurry the play. You know the value of it because you already pulled it out of the shoe but you have it placed face down on the table while trying to help him straighten out the bet. You know the card will give him a certain winner. He's been a jerk all night. You know he had $50 in reds bet. Now you can straighten that bet to look like a $40 double down. What do you do?
Next player on 2nd base is a real cute chick and she's been friendly with smiles all night. Not a clue on how to play but is always asking for advise. She's giving you a ambiguous hand signal and slow playing while the next seat is asking for a hit. You pull the card out of the shoe and while you do so you see it will bust the cute one. Give it to the next player that is already motioning for a hit? What do you do?
Next player on 4th base has his bet out and another one in front. Well you forgot. When you asked for insurance this hot looking girl is strutting down the middle of the isle and you forgot to pick up his insurance bet. A perfect time to push that second bet back and make it look like a toke for the dealer. What do you do?
Now your at 5th base and this guy has spilled his drink already earlier in the night and he's betting rainbow bets at you all night. He hits a 4 card soft 21. You give him a card or what do you do?
Last player is george with a nice bet for you and he's lighting his cigar with stick matches. You think he's asking for a card. You take the card out of the shoe and while putting it in your right hand you can see it will bust his hand. The card is facing you and the players at the cable haven't seen it. He's waiving the smoke away and you interpret that to mean he wants to stay. You can finish your hand as the dealer or call the boss. What do you do?
Dealing is not just the math that you claim is so difficult. Dealing sometimes uses judgment. The dealing errors that you mentioned earlier are results of inexperience not difficulty. Dealer errors can increase a AP advantage but pick dealers wisely.

"More mistakes seem to be made with harder blackjack payouts and color conversions."

So if a hypothetical player was to scout out the newer dealers and then bet say $27, $37.50, $57, etc., and asked to be colored up from red to green with wins, especially BJ's, that player might see a few more errors than the average Joe.

The other advantage for a BS player would be in slowing down the game, thus getting rated for more action than they actually play.

It used to be higher about 15 years ago but the proliferation of casinos has made the pool of players smarter. The fact that most casino games are face up today has also allowed other players to educate each other. It was not uncommon for players at face down blackjack games to do some really horrible stuff.

That said, I still see people split pairs against anything, especially in newer casino markets (Players in Pennsylvania, especially Western PA, are especially horrible blackjack players). In many new casino markets a 2% or even 2.5% theoretical might be realistic.

like $175, $275, etc. I found one dealer that figured the payout on $650 blackjack as $1200. But, like someone else said, it really slows down the game. You may be close to a minute with the dealer figuring it out and having the pit confirm if it is a big bet at a low roller place.