Hey DD (and others)...'Real World' win rates...

Hey DD and friends,

I've been having a slight disagreement with my good buddy Alex Mundy as of late, and I hope you might settle a little bone of contention.

My sims say that a 1-8 spread, single deck, H17, 4 rounds to 2 players, will return 4 units per 100 hands (4.24 to be exact, with a 35.44 unit SD)

I play exclusively single deck, try for heads up, generally rule of 7+...half are D10, the other half DOA and D9. Grinding it out as a red chipper, I am also fond of dropping my minimum down to $2 if table minimums will allow (effectively creating a 1-20 spread).

I feel my games I play are a touch better than the simmed one.

My real world results (up to last night, anyway) are 4.53 units over the last 150 hours (3 weeks).

Alex says I'm a nutty granola boy, and that my real world numbers are closer to 2 units an hour. I think he's just jealous, 'cause he knows I'm the greatest blackjack player in the world.

Any input is appreciated.

Cheers!
Syph

(PS I use a simple, unbalanced count, and play it like a machine. No cover, next to no tipping...I average about 8 hours a day. Yeah, I get a few back-offs, but I generally fly below radar.)

your win rate, which is nothing that has anything to do with 150 hours, will be close to what is simmed. It could be slightly higher or lower depending on whether you were optimistic or pessimistic in the assumptions you used in setting the sim parameters. I usually sim worst case scenarios, slightly worse pen, slightly more croweded tables, etc, than I really experience and thus have a slightly higher win rate than sims. Computers also make no dealer or player errors. In the real world experienced players usually gain some here as the dealer error in payoff rate will exceed the cost of player errors by a wide margin. I was pushed on a lost hand yesterday, worth about 45 minutes of extra play. Our errors cost pennies in expectation.

I haven't had too much problem spreading large at low stakes, it's only when the green come out do some of the smaller places take notice.

Mind you, I was backed off at the Siena spreading $5-$20, so go figure...

Thanks again,
Syph

(ps I agree with the dealer error bit, the other night a dealer mispayed me nearly $50. Some might laugh, but that was worth 2 hours of EV!)

Game speed is an issue in �Real World� win rates. The computer can tell us that we make 4 units per 100 hour, but this is based upon 100 rounds an hour. Many games are dealt much slower, and so your Win Rate would be less.

Of course, head-on games can be much faster. If you play head-on your Win Rate would be greater.

Can you really get a lot of head-on play at the red-chip level? Are the good rules available at those tables. In my area, you have to go to the High Limit tables to get the best rules.

You mentioned that only half your play was DOA, and the rest was D10 The Win Rate for the D10 games would be much less. It could be nearly a unit.

I agree with DD� that 150 hours is not much of a sample. However, 150 hours of great single deck play with no cover is different than 150 of multiple-=deck play. I estimate that the N0 for you DOA games is about 70, so 150 hours would be 2 N0. The D10 game with the same penetration might have a N0 of 100.

The amazing thing is some posters here feel -and with more than a small amount of conviction -that you and DD' should have made the dealer error known and returned your ill-gotten gain.

That being the case, be sure and point out the next time YOU make an error (I look at 9/3 sometimes when tired, see 11, and double. The crummy dealers shout "doubling hard 12" and deal me another before I can say no!)

Maybe I should ask for my money back when they hit me with a ten.

A few weeks back I was real tired and was glancing at the cards the player next to me was holding to get the count. She had a 12 and the dealer had a 9 up so I scratched my cards and suddenly realized I had just hit my hard 17 thinking I had a 12. Time to cash out and go to sleep!! This had to be one of the worst mistakes I have ever made. However I agree with DD that dealer errors will offset counter errors. I have been over payed on many max bets I either lost or pushed. Here is an example I have 20 dealer shows ace count it high I take insurance dealer checks and doesn't have BJ pushes back my insurance bet and then proceeds to pay me 3:2 on my 20!!! This was with a table max bet!! That makes up for my minumum bet 17 I hit many times over. SM