I don't agree
Quark,
I think you're on the right side of the bet (or at least you're not gonna lose your house on this bet) if the rule is S17. I don't have access to the references Shark mentioned, but here's my reasoning:
First, the dealer's bust probability is close to 30% (I don't remember the exact number, but it's something like 29% or something for S17 rule?). For this 29% of the time, you ALWAYS win.
Second, if the dealer has Blackjack, then you'll ALWAYS lose, which is around 5%.
Second, when the dealer does not bust and does not have Blackjack (for the rest 66% or so), the dealer's hand will be anywhere between 17 and 21. Again, I don't know the exact probabilities (which depends on whether the dealer hits S17 or not), but let's just use the following numbers (These are based on the rough assumption that half of the time the hand will be either 17 or 18, and 19, 20, or 21 for the other half. Note that the blackjack probability has been already taken care of and the H21 does not include BJ.):
1) The dealer ends up with 17: 23%. (The exact number will be somethere between 20% and 25%.)
2) The dealer ends up with 18: 23%. (Ditto.)
3) The dealer's hand is higher than 18: 54%.
Then, you will win additional 23%x66%=15% of the bets, Making your win rate to 44%. You'll push for another 14%~15% and you'll lose 42% of the time.
Now, for H17, the dealer will be more likely to bust, but his average hand will be higher if he doesn't bust, which, I guess, will probably more than compensate the increase in the bust rate. Therefore, I would say, it'll be much closer game if the rule is H17.
Just thinking out loud,
~Black Jack in the Box.