Help please: Wong Hi-Lo sim

I am intrigued at a below post referring to computer analysis of various games. Would anyone possessing such software and computer literacy, of which I possess neither be able to assist.

I have taught myself counting from books, and use Wong Hi-lo from
Pro-BJ 1994 edition.

The game is 4 deck, S17, NoDAS, No resplits, DD 10/11 only.
I am permitted a 25:1 bet variation, unbelievable but true, but restricted by the house to a max. bet of $25. I play two hands at an average of 150 hands per hour, (300 total)

My betting structure is very simple:
$1 for counts less than +2
$25 for counts equal and above +2
based on Table 9 of Professional BJ.

(I actually use a half deck count, halving the decision no.'s in Wong's table, thus betting max. at a true count of +1 per half deck.)

I also confess to betting max close to +1 per half deck, ie +6 with 7 half decks remaining. (+5,6 & occasionally +4/5), but only one hand alone at the table, (having read Wong's writing in relation to conservative spread when one or two cards could make a significant difference to the true count of further hands) For this reason I also only play one hand at +3/3 unless I believe it to be the last round.

Although I play reasonable hours and keep accurate daily records, I have no idea how profitable this game is, as my fluctuactions are massive. ie last month I soared up $2500 in two weeks, only to go negative, only to recover at $1500 for the end of the month. I would love to know my theoretical hourly rate.

Perhaps someone could also comment on my betting structure. I realise it probably looks extremely aggressive, but I am going under the assumption that the game is -0.71% favouring the house. I am also going under the assumption that at +1 true count per half deck my edge is about 0.29 (1- 0.71). Is this a reasonable assumption?, and could someone provide me with a more accurate one please.

As I have little contact with other pro players any advice or criticism of my game would be appreciated.

A "Decent" game will start with a house edge of about 0.4%, or less. The game you discussed is terrible... I don't have my charts here, but 0.8% looks about right.

One other factor you left out is: what is the penetration? A bad game with good pen is beatable. A good game with no pen is not. Regardless, if you assume a pen of a 1 deck cut-off. you'd have a truecount of +3 or higher about 20% of the time. If you play 150 hands per hour, you have 30 bets with an average of a 1% advantage. I'd expect your hourly win rate to be about $6 per hour.

Now, if you were playing a "normal" 6 deck game, with a house advantage of 0.4%, and playing 2-20 per hand (which is a tolerable spread is most places, especially lower tables), you could make a max bet at +2, make about 45 large bets per hour, and your win rate would be closer to $9 per hour.

your playing shoes with a 25 max.what a waste of time.burger king will pay more and they give you insurance and free fries.shoes are for high rollers that cant play big action at the pitch games.

I certainly agree with "Daringly" that this poster is playing at a very poor game, but as to your statement that "shoes are for high rollers that cant play big action at the pitch games"...
...What on earth ever gave you such an idea?
@^S
Yes, high rollers often find that shoe games are less "heaty" for their size of play than pitch games, but many, many lower stakes counters play shoes too.
For many lower stakes counters, shoe games are all that are offerred in their local area.
And what about trackers? Regardless of their bet size, they are going to play shoe games, if they are trackable.
Also, if a traditional counter is a bit under-financed, wonging shoe games is a viable way to greatly lower his overall risk, (compared to playall) if no pitch games are offered in his area.
@^!
Cyclops

then you have no choice,but if you come here and play red or light green there is no need to play shoes.there are enough sd and dd games to occupy your time.

shoes with a 25 max.you dont play shoes if all you can afford is 25 max.go over to sd and spread away.

the house max is $25, not that he can only afford $25. Sounds like the guy is playing an off-the-path game somehwere, not that he is trying to find a new job. He just wants info. Anyone have it?

in turkey.i wouldnt waste my time with a shoe game with a 25max.save your energy for more important things.when you get a bankroll come to vegas and they will pay for your room and meals.

ahha hehehee

Thanks to all (well nearly) for responding. Let me reply to all in order:

To Daring. Penetration is as you surmised 1 deck remaining. Thanks for noticing the detail slip up. I am assuming I have to double the hourly rate you quoted, (i.e $6 x 2 to reflect the two hand of $25
I referred to in my post). Also would this estimate consider my negliglble cover bets?, or is it based on a traditional betting structure?

To Pat.
"Burger King will pay you more and they give you insurance and free fries".
Possibly, although I would prefer to play Blackjack in my leisure time. As for the free fries, I prefer a larger potato to grease ratio
than this outlet currently offers.

"you don't play shoes if all you can afford is 25 max, go over to SD and spread away."

I believe Xianhua Jones has sufficiently answered the "afford" question.

"He must be playing in Turkey. I wouldn't waste my time with a shoe game of 25max. Save your money for the important things. when you get a bankroll come to Vegas and they will pay for your room and meals."

I can advise I neither play nor consider myself a Turkey. I have a considerable bankroll from and for my other more lucrative pro-gaming. In relation to room and meals, my house is paid off, and I am currently comped for meals. However, I accept you are not to know my circumstances and your advice is indeed excellent for someone single and hungry.

To Cyclops, You are open minded, and not one-eyed as your handle might otherwise imply. It is indeed foolish to make as certain statements in relation to any game, as the opportunities and variables abound.

To Xinhua Jones, One of lifes true gentlemen, thank you for your accurate interpretation of my post, and your defence. I did indeed state I was restricted by the house to $25, and am indeed playing an "off the path game somewhere". You are also correct in asserting that I am not trying to find a new job, I resigned my employment a few years ago.

Most importantly, Yes I just want info. Does anyone have it?

To Joey21,
Thanks for spending so much time giving your carefully considered answer. I was actually requesting criticism of a constructive nature, but this was either not obvious to all, or perhaps a little too demanding of some.

3-25 spread will net you 5 bucks an hour.thats wonging in at +1(that's alot of back counting to make 5 an hour)if you bet the max,which i suggest,at +1 and greater you will make 9 bucks an hour(you are now above minimum wage)i assume you will be a high roller at this place betting table max so you will be able to get comps.the comps are worth more than the game.have fun...

You have my email address if you wish to come out of the shadows.

My post stated I was playing in accordance with your suggestion, ie max at true +1, (eg. +5, 5 half decks remaining). I am to assume that the 9 bucks an hour is X2(two hands). Either way this is most pleasing to me.

Rolling happily high, having fun all the way, am grateful for your response.

if you bet 2 you will make more.thr ror is pretty much nill at such a low level.where is this casino.is it in some cornfield or something:)

"actually one hand
Posted By: pat on 31 July 02, 12:57 a.m. in response to: Thanks Pat (15ofClubs)

if you bet 2 you will make more.thr ror is pretty much nill at such a low level.where is this casino.is it in some cornfield or something:)"

Could you please check this for typos i.e. thr ror, and confirm whether my hourly expectation is $9 or $18.

Please pardon my ignorance if you are abbreviating. You have been very helpful and I just wish to clarify your answers. Could you also advise how you arrived at the hourly rate calculation, ie computer sim or rote formulae.

Thanking you in advance. Not Turkey, not a cornfield, please respect my wish to keep my burger flipping rate gaming palace to my self,
although you have made it abundantly clear I have nothing to fear from competition from any self-respecting pro.

your risk of ruin on a 5000 bank is 2%.i used s17das rules.if the game is h17,your ror goes to 3.45% and 8 bucks an hour.thats for playing one hand.i used a sim to get the results.do you have a bank of at least 10K?if so, your risk of ruin is .12% for h17.

I realise that this thread is getting messy so will put eveything here.

The game is 4 deck, s17, NoDAS, No Resplit, DD 10/11 only, Penetration 1 deck remaining.

My betting structure is
< + 1 $1
>= +1 $25

By plus one I am referring to half deck count, (eg running count of plus five divided by five half decks remaining)

I use Wong Hil-lo, and as he dictates, halve his index no.s to reflect a full figure half deck division(ie 5 half decks as opposed to 2.5 decks.)

I am playing two boxes, either head-on or with one other player, achieving an average total hands per hour of 300 (i.e. 2 boxes at 150 hands each per hour.)

I also mentioned previously that last month I did experience a -$2500 swing (100 max unit loss)before recovering to +$1500 for the month.

My reading of Uston & Wong suggest only 120 units to stay within a 5%
element of ruin, but obviously this game would be a lot more dangerous with the max bet being placed at such a marginal count. Due to the low max bet I am relatively unconcerned with negative fluctuations, although $10,000 advised bankroll suggests I may have underestimated the volatility of this game.

Even this level would be acceptable as this is my leisure activity, although admittedly it represents my total winnings from this game for the year.

I appreciate your warnings as to negative fluctuations, but am mainly seeking critique of my betting approach, which you have already confirmed, ie bet max at true 1, and an indication of expected hourly rate.

You are the only one who has replied to this request, and am hoping you can resolve my curiosity as to hourly rate.

Thanks again

i dont have 4 decks on my sim.only 6.one thing is for sure,you are wasting your time with this game.the rules suck!!the house edge is about.71% off the top.i wont play a double deck game w/o das.your playing a shoe game with no das AND only double on 10,11.your win rate is shit-if you win anything at all when you count mistakes.stick your money in phillip morris.you will get a better return.you said you were young.if thats the case,go have fun and forget blackjack until you can find a better game.this is the last i will comment on this game.sorry..