Heat and Cover

I am a new counter. I have doing it for 6 months. I have made about 30K. I have been playing in the Detroit Casinos. I have been backed off of all of them.

I would love some advise on several issues.

1. I feel like I am getting heat after being in a casino anywhere for longer than 30 minutes. Am I in Griffin? Does not being able to play in Detroit mean that I will get backed off in other places.

2. I am trying to cover my play to the point it really affects EV. This includes flat betting, trying to always hit my 16's if I can't surrender, not appropriately splitting 10's or doubling on soft 19's and 20's, playing on negative counts longer than I would like. It doesn't seem to affect the impending heat and back off.

3. It is hard to win in Vegas. I have found that after the first shoe/ deck, dealer switches, weird shuffles, pit bosses watching, and just an abrupt change in the variance. More over, the best games and places to play have surveillance that is crazy. Computers analyzing your play, cameras, choke points, etc. Is there a strategy for were to play?

The truth is that the Midwest sucks for Gambling, but I have been backed off in Vegas as well. I was fearless until the first back off which is probably the issue. If it is over for me, I want to get out, because most back offs are coming after a losing streak is about to turn around. I would love some advice.

MM

The cost of always standing on 16v10 is less than always hitting. This is because it is usually correct to stand when you have more money on the table. Also many ploppies never hit 16.

ploppies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You haven't said anything about your betting pattern. Maybe you are increasing your bets by too much per hand. You cannot play for longer than about an hour at one table. Are you playing sedentary or back counting? What is your bet level and bet spread?

until you have more experience and you know what makes sense to detail on the free board. You didn't post anything wrong, but you're better off asking questions on GC, and in the future, posting helpful replies to others on Free, imo. You don't want to inadvertantly post personal, or game, identifying information on the free pages (or on any public board).

Everything you say in your third, "3.", point sounds like beginner paranoia. Yet, you've made $30K. Interesting.

You must have gone into the local casinos and just pounded away with a fairly large betting unit; I'm guessing $25 to 2x$200 and higher. And you did this with no cover. I'm also guessing you have had short term luck and that you are over betting your bankroll.

If you do have a sizeable BR, then you need to slow down, read some more and then re-attack with a good plan. You have taken a good first step by asking questions here, now join GC and get some more books.

You wrote >I want to get out, because most back offs are coming after a losing streak is about to turn around<. First, there is no way to know when a "losing streak" will transition to a "winning streak", so this statement is unfounded. Furthermore, maybe some casinos wait for a counter to suffer a loss and if one doesn't happen, they use a win cap before they back them off. That would seem to make sense, adding insult to injury and recouping some of the house's loss (assuming there was one). However, there is no guarantee that there will ever be a "losing streak" or that the counter will return on a regular basis or ever. So, once they identify you, they will back you off if it's their policy to do so.

Maybe you have been backed off after a losing session or two, so you're assuming that this "always" happens. This is selective memory or simply a small sample of your personal experience.

Do not expect great detail about how to fix your issues on the free pages. Join GC, keep your humble tone when posting there and you will get all of your questions answered.

It sounds like you have the time to play and travel and the means to do so. Thus, don't "get out" yet, unless you are harming other parts of your life such as family, professional and education.

Standing on 16 vs 10 is one of the few cover plays I make. I generally don't like giving back ANY of the very slim edge that I work so hard to get, but I have had conversations with 2 different pit guys who both stated that they use this hand and how it is played to identify counters. One had a list of 5 hands that he used, while the other only used this single hand. If you wong out of at least some of the negative counts, it minimizes the cost of this play and I wong out very aggressively, so the cost is very minimal.

He'll get all the answers he needs on this page.

SW doesn't pay me enough to bark for him. As a matter of fact, he hasn't paid me anything ever. I may have to have a talk with him.

BTW, you can post your actual handle. I'm not easily offended, and I'm often called much worse.

You may be right that he'll get all he needs here, but it will only help him to join GC where he can gain additional feedback. Why are you protective of the free pages? Have you ever tried green chip? Do you feel the value isn't enough? I hope you will try it out.

...But he should subscribe to CBJN, or at least buy a single copy for his next trip to Vegas or somewhere out of his home territory.

It's a small price to pay.

Cobbson

I've mentioned it's value many times. I subscribed religiously when I traveled and based many of my trips on it. And, out of the 30 or so blackjack books I owned, the only book I brought on trips was Professional Blackjack.

Alternatively you could just change the index number for 16 vs 10 from 0 to like -4. This would give you most of the benefits of cover but in deep negative counts on pitch games where you are playing all and spreading more politely you would get the benefits of hitting when you've got a better shot to catch a small card.

He should also browse other BJ forums. Nothing compares to full spectrum solicitation.

I agree with what you say and the snapper does sound like an obvious shill!

There are other books that are excellent. But I would say that it depends on his level of expertise as to what books he should concentrate on. I don't know why any experienced blackjack player would have to carry any book on a casino trip.

Can you tell us what the five hands are that they use to identify counters?

Very pedantic! Gorgon why don't you get real as they say these days?

while sitting out the negative counts. It's great camo :-)