First outing disaster

First outing disaster

For anyone interested.....today I had my first real bj session (not counting a few practice sessions at a few indian casinos) and it turned out to be a real nightmare. I use the KO count and am confident that I can use it well. Under the conditions I'm playing, the sims say I'm playing with a aprox .68% advantage. I am properly bankrolled with a 5% ROR for spreading between $50-$500 ($50 is the min bet for a decent game in the area I'm playing in). Penetration was over 75% with S17 and RSA with 6 decks. I played for about 4 hours and lost $6,000 at about 100 hands/hr. I know this is probably not alot of money for alot of you out there but this really blew my confidence level seing that this was my first session. It's very disturbing to know that you can loose almost 10% of your bankroll in a single 4 hour session. I actually lost 5 max bets in a single hand at the end. I resplits 9's three times against a dealers 8 and doubled on 2 of them. Dealer gets another 8 for a 16 then pulls out a 4 to beat all my bets at a KO count of +15. At this count I had about a 4% advantage. The count mainted sky high in the upper teens so I pulled out 3 more max bets on the next 3 hands and lost a double down and the other 2 bets for a total loss of $4500 in about 1 minute time. I'm really questioning now whether I have the stomach for this. My wife of course thinks I'm crazy and wants me to call it quits after this loss. To loose this much on my first session makes me wonder if I can handle the volatility. I'm afraid now that I'll be in that 5% ROR. My point here is not to look for pity, but if anyone has had a similiar experience I would like to know how you handled it.
Thanks

Unlucky at the start

You have experienced the same sort of gut-wrenching session loss many of us have, although you were unfortunate to get it at the start of your career. In a four-hour session and your bet-sread/size, you won't win or lose $6000 or more very often.
I have read somewhere that it doesn't hurt to have a bit of luck when you first start out in this game(!) Personally I know someone who had no concept of bankroll when he started out, but is now safe from ROR due to an initial lucky run and he understands the concept now!
It sounds like you know what you are doing, so believe in the maths and carry on!
My only negative comment is that 5% ROR is quite high, but that might be satisfactory for you.

re: First Outing

you're playing a poor game with a weak spread unless you are aggressively wonging. 0.68% is very poor. Be prepared for more big swings up and down and for it to take hundreds of hours of play before you have any certainty of being ahead.

Bets too high for a start

The large minimum bet of $50 forces you to place maxbets at a level that you cannot psychologically digest at this stage.
With a single maxbet of $500 a loss of $6000 is nothing unusual.You should expect disasters like this or worse about every tenth session.
I would recommand you to go to two hands of $300 as your maxbet in order to reduce fluctuations.
But much better would be to play at a $10-table with maxbets of $200.

Francis Salmon

Not a Complete Disaster

It wasn�t a complete disaster. You weren�t barred! The worst thing is to have a blow-out loss, and then be told you can�t play. One weekend last year I dumped 17K in one casino in LV, only to have the boss say �Your good for craps, or baccarat, or anything else, but not more BJ�.

I hope you asked them for a comp!

Seriously, I do hope you were rated, and that you have been credit for you big loss.

You lost 12 Max Bets in 400 rounds, which really isn�t that unusual. It happens a lot. You can lose that much in One Shoe. I usually do not play 4 hour sessions. However, I have had bigger losses over the same period of time. Here are the results from a losing streak I had earlier this year:

 

 		 Result 	Time 

 		-3800		1.3 

 		-4220		0.8 

 		-1130		0.7 

 		-2075		0.7 

 		-207.5		1.2 

 

Total 		-11432.5	4.7 

That is 11+K over less than 5 hours.

Now, ask yourself this. Are you concerned about a downswing of 6K? Or are you concerned about how fast it happened. Would you feel better if you lost 3 sessions in a row, and the total was 6K?

I share Francis� concern that you may not be psychologically ready to play at these stakes. It is better to gain experience at lower stakes, and then move up. After you have a history of winning and losing 30 max bets, you will be more prepared to handle something like this.

You said it was the only �decent game�. What are the other games. Can you back-count this game. If so, you could you could get by with a smaller spread. Or do they have 8 deck games Or do they have 8 deck games with lower limts. Can you back-count them?

Also, I would encourage you to play 2 hands whenever feasible, and certainly for you big bets. You mentioned a hand where you lost 5 max bets on one hand. If you have been playing two spots, that would be only 2.5 max bets. Of course, you might have also lost 0.5 or more on the other spot.

It happens

Sorry about your bad luck. That is a tough loss to take. $6k is a lot of money to me and to most people. I agree with everyone here that if you can go down below the $50 mark and play $10 to 300 or something around there, you should consider it. The only thing that concerned me is the .68 % advantage. I typically play with a 1.15 % advantage. I think the good news here is that your werent spreading 1 to 20 when you lossed. We, cardcounters, talk about playing the same way everytime but if we could predict our losses we would generally like to spread 1 to 20 when we win and 1 to 10 when we lose. That would create a huge winrate for us. I tend to play better after a loss. It sounds like you've done the math part of it which is good. I typically spread at least 1 to 20 and even 1 - 30 on 6 deck if I can. After a loss, I usually tend to seek out games that I can get a huge advantage on. I look around for a $10 table and spread 1 to 30 on it. You can get a pretty big advantage on most games doing this even when the pen is 68 % or so.
I had a loss similar to yours but I lost 2500 in about 20 minutes. Man, I'll never stop talking about this because it was so messed up. I lost every single time I increased my bet. I lost every double down for 20 minutes. I was shook up and had to leave the casino. I went home after that.

I agree wholeheartedly

When I moved to LV I had a $25,000 bankroll. First time playing bj for real, I started on the $25 minimum tables, had an early run of bad luck (or so I thought), and quickly had my br cut in half. I went down to $10 minimum tables. It took me a year of playing an average of 6 days a week, 6-8 hours a day, before I got comfortable at this game. I look back and shake my head at how naive and ill-prepared I was, and how little I knew in that first year and a half. I thought I was "The Man" and would make a ton of money. Live and learn.

I really believe that you or any novice should start off small, $5-$10 tables, even if your br can support a $50 minimum. You will be making a lot of mistakes, and you will have a lot to learn in this game. Better to learn with cheap dollars.

Neko

First experience

In response to BigPlayer & All Time High: Spreading 1-10 actually gives me about a .70% advantage. Spreading 1-12 gives me about a .78% advantage. The only way I can increase my advantage would be to increase my spread or backcount. I don't think I would last long backcounting in the casinos in my area for the 6 deck games. I'll have to run the math to see what spread I would need (and bankroll) to have more than a 1% advantage. But...spreading 1-12, with a .78% advantage, with a 50-600 spread, I would make an average of 97 cents per hand (average bet of aprox $125/hand). At 120 hands/hr that comes out $116/hr. Question: does everyone have the mindset that you should only play with at least a 1% advantage. Also, do most of you think playing with a 5% ROR is to high?

In response to MathProf & others: The area I play (I'm not sure if I should mention it or not b/c there is only a few casinos in the immediate area) does offer a few 8 deck games with 1.5 cut and a $10/min. I could probably backcount at those tables but they are usually really crowded. I really doubt I could backcount at the 6 deck $50 tables. It seems customary at the higher tables to ask the other player's permission before jumping in the middle of a shoe (the answer quite oftens seems to be no). The other lower limit 6 deck games use a csm so that's obviously a waste of time. At one of the casinos there is a 6 deck game with $15/min but I can't play there every time b/c I wanted to split my time amongst all the casinos. I will definitely attempt to spread to 2 hands in the future to limit my exposure when the max bets are out and also offer better camouflage. I agree with everyone that I may not have the stomach for these losses even though I do have the bankroll (if I were single I wouldn't experience alot of this anxiety, ie., after I came home my wife asks "so are you done playing blackjack now?"). It seems though that I have no choice but to deal with these fluctuations or stop playing altogether due to the game conditions in my area, unless I want to play the 8 deck games.

As for the comps, I refused to be rated b/c I didn't want to give me license out and give my real name. I gave some excuse about not wanting to be rated b/c I would just end up coming back more and losing more money to them. I am afraid of being made out as a counter and then having this info passed to other casinos in the area and since all these local casinos are owned by casinos in vegas, I'm afraid of being flagged at those casinos as well. Am I being paranoid here? I would like to know how to get rated without giving out your real name and license but that seems to be a no-no question on this board.
Anyway, thanks everybody for the encouragement/advice.

re" first experience

Get rated a few times to test what kind of mailer offers your casino is sending. If they send nothing (no cash coupons) then just play anonymously from then on (since it's your home base casino I'm guessing that travel costs aren't much of an issue). If your casino sends great cash coupons or other offers, you're leaving a lot of eV on the table with regards to playing anonymously.

I have a friend who plays to a 0.7% edge at most games and tailors his betting to this specific edge. He also has huge variance and a huge bankroll and has played for 20 years, has been backed off everywhere a bunch of times each, and is a Griffin poster child. I don't think you are at the point yet where you need to give up that much expectation. That said, there is a case to be made for protecting your home turf, especially if you have the potential to crank out a ton of hours. But if you're playing a careful game aimed at longevity, you should get rated and get the comps you deserve. You will undoubtedly qualify for all sorts of tournament invites, VIP drawings, not to mention a ton of steakhouse meals.

Could use some help

Wow although im just over 18yrs old, from these post i have been really lost with all these terms. Sorry for a n00b post on this great topic but some help would be nice

How about a 120 unit loss on 1 hand?

I am just a redchipper but how about this hand from hell?

Im playing 2 hands (8 units each) with about 1.5 decks left and a RC of 14

Im dealt 3,3 and 7,7 vs 6

On the first 3 I catch a 10, second 3 I catch a 3 split catch another one and resplit get an ace double get a 10, ace double 10 and then an 8 so naturally a double and catch a 4

The 7's also turned into 4 hands all doubled
Ace catch a 10, 2 catch a 10, 4 catch 6 and 3 catch a 9

So to sum it up:

13 8 units
14 16 units
14 16 units
15 16 units
18 16 units
19 16 units
17 16 units
18 16 unit
Now I know that long term what other people do means nothing but to add insult to injury the guy on the end hits his 15 catches and 8, the dealer had a 2 in the hole followed by a 6 and a 7 for an ugly 21

This turned a -90 unit trip into a -210 trip quite fast

Some advice

Jeff,

Definitely don't give out the area you are playing at. You are spreading enough money to definitely be noticed and noted. I generally like to play with a 1% or more advantage because you get into the long run quicker. The bigger the advantage-- the quicker the results. Also, you should be somewhat worried about being pegged. I was pegged in another state and lasted about 10 minutes in one casino and an hour in another. In the latter one, I was walking to the door when a PB stopped me and asked me questions. I was trespassed at the other. Casinos are definitely exchanging information more than ever before. If you are playing 50 - 500, and you refuse to be rated, you are sending off a red flag already. That's the hard part. It is a dilemma that counters are always debating. I'm not saying you should hand over your ID, either. I don't hand over my ID anymore. I used to, though. Bigplayer says to get rated but I have to say that I wouldn't. Or, try playing anonymously the first time and see how it goes. That way, you haven't really lost anything. How quick are your hands ???? Or play with your ID/player's card and rathole chips. You have to be careful because it is an automatic red flag if they see you doing that.
I say not to because of some bad experiences that I have had. I believe that I am in Griffin's databases partly because of how many player's cards I had gotten when I went on a big winning streak. Hell, one place asked to see my shoes when they backed me off. I think it just makes it easier for them to identify you/ Griffin you, etc. Also, if you become familiar to them and they put a name with a face, you may be kind of stuck without some options then.

21andcounting,

That happens. Not sure if you know this but even though playing 2 hands increases your advantage, it also increases your standard deviation/variance. I believe that is what you are experiencing. Your standard deviation would also go up tremendously if you were to increase your spread. It is the same thing.

Paranoid

Jeff wrote:

I gave some excuse about not wanting to be rated b/c I would just end up coming back more and losing more money to them. I am afraid of being made out as a counter and then having this info passed to other casinos in the area and since all these local casinos are owned by casinos in vegas, I'm afraid of being flagged at those casinos as well. Am I being paranoid here?

Yes, I think you are being paranoid.

Let us consider your concern about the casinos sending the information to other casinos. Now suppose your playing at casino A and B.

Suppose your name is already established at casino A, and your getting a lot of valuable comps there. Then I could see you being afraid to give your name at casino B, for fear that they would nail you and send you information to casino A. But that doesn�t apply here. Your name isn�t established anywhere. This is your first session.

There is some difference of opinion as to whether or not anonymous play increases or decreases longevity. There is a lot of opinion that refusing to give a name increases suspicion and decreases longevity. On the other hand, rated play does make it easier for them to track your play. I am in the middle on this issue: there are some times where I think giving a name helps, and sometimes where I think playing anonymously.

However, I do think that having a big loss on your players account does increase your longevity!

I think beginners worry too much about getting barred. It happens, but rejections in shoe games outside of Nevada aren�t that common, and it usually take a while.

One other comment abut playing as a refusal. If you do this, don�t give an excuse. Just say No! People who give excuses look guilty.
Now regarding game selection and bet levels. The situation that you describe is unfortunately becoming standard at many casinos: 8 decks on the main floor, 6 decks in the high limit pit. I know a lot of casinos now that are like that. It does pose a problem.

I do agree that back-counting the high-limit tables will be difficult. In many areas, Wonging in on players is considered Rude, and will get you a bad reputation. And I am sympathetic to your desire to avoid the 8 deck games. Still it might not hurt to play some practice sessions at the 8 decks games, spreading 2s25 to your 2x300, whenever you can play two spots. Another possibility would be to examine the possibilities to travel other destinations with better games. Now, from a purely EV standpoint, it may not b worth the travel costs. But it may give you additional practice. In addition, you won�t be playing at the local casinos, so getting bared would be less of a worry.

Finally, I would encourage to join Green Chip. It really isn�t that expensive, relative to the amount of money that you are investing. I think you would get a lot of better quality advice there.

Thanks MathProf, I actually signed up yesterday (nt). (nt)

i know it happens

It sucks but does happen
I was just pointing out that hands from hell do occur and this is a long term thing

It just happned to me

I lost close to $6k in a positive-off-the-top game in several hours when I saw your post. I didn't know what happened. I reviewed my play and found small mistakes on strategy. I went playing the game after one day break, very similar bettings, won back all plus some in 6 hours, today I won again, won over $10k in 2 days. My biggest win occurred after my big loss. Once I lost $40k in 2 hours, continued playing (Trip BR $60K then), won back all plus $100k in 18 hours, won another $50 k from another casino the third day. Statistic God has strange ways of doing business but he/she is on our side...: )

Some Help

Click on the BJ Glossary link on your left.

ETF

i have been really lost with all these terms.

it took me 3 months to start getting barred (nt)

5%ROR

Another stupid question but was that ment to be Risk of Ruin or Rate of Return?

Risk Of Ruin (nt)