First Base: Better Chance of Catching High Cards?

Ok here is a newbie question so be prepared. Why wouldn't first base have a better chance of getting the high cards during high counts then 3rd base??

Let me give you a simple example where this MIGHT be the case. Lets say I'm playing a 5 spot table with 5 players in a single deck game and there are only 5 cards left to be played(not likely but its just an example for simplicity sake). There are 4 high cards and 1 low card left. Now in this scenerio where would you rather be sitting? 3rd base which will receive the last card seems like it has a lesser chance of getting 1 of the 4 high cards because the 4 players to his right will most likely catch them.

On the other hand, is this a simple probability case where each player has a 4/5 chance of catching a high card regardless of where they are sitting? Can somebody present some type of simple mathematical example to demonstrate why 1st base does NOT have a better chance of receiving high cards as opposed to 3rd base in high count situations? Some will assert that the chance of catching high cards DIMINSHES as the dealer deals from 1st base to 3rd base in high counts. Thanks to anybody to who can respond.

-MJ

all players have an equal chance of getting the high cards...the order in which they are dealt is irrelevant. The seat you sit in makes no difference. There have been many many many threads on this subject in the past.

The easiest way to explain this....take the 5 cards in question (4 high and 1 low) and throw them on the floor and mix them up...now do you mean to tell me that the person who picks a card first has any greater edge of not picking the low card than the person who picks last? How about the old short straw game where 5 people draw straws...4 long and 1 short...does the person who picks last have a better or worse chance of picking the short straw? All have the same chance of getting the short straw and the same chance of getting the low card. The order of selection makes no difference.

I guess the probability of drawing a low card or short straw is 20% regardless of who selects first. Thanks.

-MJ

as the 3rd base seat has access to ALL available info. This is more so true in a shoe game where all cards are seen, but is also true of SD & DD where 3rd base would have seen all naturals, double down cards, and any other info he may have peeked at.

> This is more so true in a shoe game where all cards are seen,
> but is also true of SD & DD

Actually it is less true in a shoe game (the change in true count around the table is very small round to round) and more true in SD & DD.

Add'ly, especially in a shoe game, there are valid reasons not to be sitting 3rd base.

If you sit at third base:

(1) doesn't affect your bet, since you bet after all cards have been exposed.

(2) You make playing decisions based on your hand, the dealer's up card, and the remaining deck composition. So your playing edge is a bit higher than first base, because any kind of cards could have fallen after he made his playing decision on the count when it was his turn, but now his decision might be wrong as the count has climbed or fallen significantly after his playing decisions, but before the dealer's turn.

If you sit at first base:

(1) doesn't affect your bet, since you bet after all cards have been exposed, just like above.

(2) Your playing decisions are less accurate because other players play before the dealer, and you only care about what the dealer's potential drawn cards are...

About the only plus for a position seems to be third base, however significant that playing decision accuracy turns out.

Now the down-side. You sit at 3rd base, with a TC of +4, and get 10-10 vs dealer 6. Dare you split? You get 12 vs 6 with a negative true count. Dare you hit? You know the ploppies will erupt with howls of displeasure, drawing unwanted attention to your table...

I think a counter at 3rd base is like a kite in a thunderstorm. Get ready for a bolt or two...

According to Peter Griffin (p 118, TOB), seeing one card in single deck is equivalent to seeing 33 cards in six decks. Only when you get very near to the end of the shoe does seeing those extra cards amount to much.

Suppose there are four Tens and one non-Ten.

If the first player receives a Ten, then the second player has a 3-out-of-four (75%) chance of receiving a Ten. This exact scenario is likely to happen four out of every five times, since the first player is expected to receive a Ten 4 out of 5 times.

However, if the first player receives the non-Ten, the second player is 100% certain to receive a Ten. This exact scenario happens only one out of five times, since we expect the first player to receive the non-Ten once every five times.

So, for the second player, 80% of the time he has a 75% chance of pulling a Ten, and 20% of the time he has a 100% chance of pulling a Ten . We compute the second player's "average" chance of pulling a Ten:

.75 + .75 + .75 + .75 + 1.0 = 4.0

4.0 / 5 = .80

In the scenario described, there is no difference between first and second base. They have an equal chance of pulling a Ten (80%). The cards don't improve by changing position at the table; only the number of seen cards does.

The odds of drawing the short straw are calculated, and stakes/bets determined prior to anyone drawing. Therefore the order of draw is irrelevant and does not change the odds.

Of course, if you're last to draw and everyone else got long straws you're a 100% guaranteed winner...BUT everyone placed their bets before anyone drew straws...unless you can past post or add to your bet without others seeing you, you were still a 4:1 underdog initially regardless of order of draw.

Start from a different viewpoint and you may get a clearer picture.

Once the cards are on the table, every player has the same information.
The importance of the count then shifts to whoever doesn't have a made hand. If first base is the only one to hit his hand, he's also the third baseman. Whoever is hitting his hand last is the third base.

A plus count means there are additional high cards. Depending on your hand, some may want them and some may not. It can be a double-edged sword.

Sorry, bigplayer, didn't want to jump the queue.

we're talking about your chances of catching big cards by seat position before anyone has recieved any cards. Prior to the deal, every seat position has exactly the same chance of recieving big cards...the order of the deal is irrelevant.

Of course the odds of catching big or small cards fluctuates mid-round, but prior to the round starting you don't know how it's going to fluctuate and again seat position is irrelevant.

Here is a link to Zenfighters response where a continuous probability calculation is shown. Is is a precise mathematical answer to the question I posed.

http://www.advantageplayer.com/blackjack/index.html

Aha... but sometimes it's fun to draw the wrath of the ploppies...

3am...Fitz Reno I'd been enjoying heads up single deck when the most obnoxious drunk in all Reno (and there's some stiff competition) joins us. A superstitious obnoxious drunk. So I ask him if he thinks I should split my tens... you know the rest of the story. Best 6 chips I ever lost... see ya bye.

You can really screw with folks in 3rd, good recreation.

Been there, done that, got the T-shirt.

There are several things you can do to run off the obnoxious ones, from splitting 10's (a favorite idea when the count is +4, and the dealer has a 6 up for example, you split, the obnoxious player leaves, you tell the dealer "I don't split 10's, but it seemed like a good idea to get rid of that clown..." You both have a good laugh, you pocket the profit, and also get to play alone. :) But in a shoe game, with a crowded table (say Vegas on a weekend night) there's little point in trying to run one off, as another will jump in. And at a table full of ploppies, the groans/complaints can attract unwanted attention if you aren't careful.