Free Forum - expectation 19/09/2005 21:12

Jeffrey

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Sep 19, 2005, 5:12:20 PM

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expectation

I'm relatively new at counting and have a mathematical/theoretical question:

The books I've read discuss an expectation of roughly 0.50% depending on the exact game (multideck, DAS, h17 or s17). To me, this mean that, on average, one would win 50 cents for every $100 bet. Over time, if one bet even $100,000, the average winnings would be only $500 - obviously meager winnings.

Apparently, I don't understand the meaning of "expectation".

Please help...

Shaggy18VW

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Sep 19, 2005, 7:35:12 PM

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You understand well enough.

Typically a game with only a .5% expectation is not desirable. It should be possible with heavy spreading, or backcounting to get 1% to 1.5%.

Let's say you are getting the 1% edge. You are spreading between $50 and $200. Your average bet may be $100 (its not $125 because you play more hands at min bet than you do at max). You are playing in a game where you get in 100 hands per hour. You expect to earn (on average) $10 an hour (.1*100).

That's it.

Coug Fan

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Sep 19, 2005, 7:54:42 PM

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Isn't that $100/hr?

1% edge X $100 avg bet = $1 per hand X 100 hands per hour = $100/hr

Sonny

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Sep 20, 2005, 10:47:08 AM

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I should hope so.

Otherwise I'm wasting my time! =)

-Sonny-

Shaggy18VW

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Sep 20, 2005, 11:12:27 AM

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Clearly, lol my bad. (nt)

Shaggy18VW

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Sep 20, 2005, 11:17:46 AM

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.01*100*100 = $100 per hour (nt)

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