Exit Strategy Help

Looking for some advice.

I've posted on here a few times but i mostly just browse for good insight/advice.

I've been counting for 1.5 years now. My grand total stats are as follows:
595 hours, $65,557.00 winnings, $110.32 per hour.

These stats are good; however, in the last 6-7 months i'm averaging about $150.00 per hour due to better play, back counting, etc.

At this point i've managed to get banned/flat bet from almost every casino in a 2 hr radius. Seven total in the MPLS area. I still have a few options; however they are almost 2 hours away and i will prob be 86'ed from them soon as well.

I quit my job about 5 months ago to pursue counting full time and it has really paid off; however, at this point im scared i have exhausted my resources. I have a bankroll of about $35K. I need an exit strategy. What do yall suggest?

I'm 24 yrs old and i have a 4 yr degree but going back to the 45 hr a week world is not what i want to do.

I know there is always trips to vegas and other locations but i have heard vegas picks off counters so quick it may not be worth my time.

Let me know your thoughts. You need not post about my stats thus far; they are what they are.

You don't mention your betting scheme but with only 35k bankroll, it's virtually impossible to make 6 figures in 600 hours without heavily overbetting. Or you have been extremely lucky.
600 hours of play is too short to draw any conclusions about your profit potential. Anyway 35k bankroll is far too modest for being a full time pro.The risk of ruin is just too high, especially the way you play.
Your barrings are probably also the result of overbetting.
But even if you become more conservative,you will have to take up a new job because your win rate will suffer.

Francis Salmon

According to a well known poster on this site, the casino �prefers nothing more than for us to overbet our bankroll.� Why would he be backed off if he was overbetting his bankroll as the casinos prefer?

For those unfamiliar with the thread on Green Chip, I am being sarcastic here.

Dr 21

1. look at your expected/predicted win rate going forward. Your hourly rate is what it is, but it is not that meaningful. Is your actual win rate $110/hr with an expected win rate of $40/hr or an expected win rate of $200/hr? That is a big diference in projecting your future win rate.

2. Get a GPS, copy of CBJN and start heading south. There are games in Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. The good news is it sounds like you have a clean slate in probably 95%+ of the casinos out there. If you are serious about making money, you should already have a subscription to CBJN.

3. Make sure to account for cash back and comps in your strategy. I found most of the places in Tunica mediocre (dd H17 with 55% pen) but they offered some great cash back.

4. I will give you one nugget- drive about 300-400 miles south to Mayetta, KS. Prairie Band has dd with pen ranging from 55-80% when I played there a few years ago. I probably received about $10,000 in cash back, including a $1000 one shot after I was backed off. Play to win but also to generate cash back and comps. They are generous with free rooms and meals once you get established. you can probably get more in cash back than your EV.

5. I am dubious you were able to play 500 hours in MPLS with a strong game. I laste about 60 minutes at Mystic Lake in June playing a spread that I thought would get me an EV of $100+ before I was flat betted.

Good luck. If you are serious send me an email and I will share nuggets that I have burned out.

I'm not sure that the folks understand your joke and I don't know myself whether I get you right.
In my view the notion of overbetting only exists from the player's perspective. The casino doesn't even know that BJMurda has only 35k.
The only relevant question for the pit is whether a big bet is made in an advantage situation. If that's the case, the bigger the bet, the bigger the danger for the casino regardless of the underlying bankroll. This would explain the frequent barrings of BJMurda.

Francis Salmon

I definitively started out over betting with my bankroll size but i had income coming in from my job. As for now, i spread to 10 units by 2 hands for my max betting - $250 by 2 hands.

To JPB:
The hours and figures are not fudged. Mystic Lake was the first to ban me as everyone knows they don't tolerate counting. I will say that i started out there and in my first 150 hours i was not playing the game i am playing now. Obviously, my game is way better/refined now.

My EV is aprx $103.00/hr after ave the EV from the games i play. The good news is that the two closest casinos i have not been barred from yet have the best double deck games with EV right around $120.00 for me.

I also tried to spread out where i played; not going to the same casinos back to back to back. It should be noted that i used almost no cover betting as i just didn't believe in it. Maybe stupid, especially now, but it is what it is. Do you think i should start cover betting in any new casinos i enter?

Thanks for all the feedback thus far and keep it coming. Lets focus on the future. I don't have a subscription to CBJN but i will look into it.

You still don't tell us much about your betting scheme but I guess if you want to reach the win rate you mentioned, you have to place the max bet already at TC+3. However this means unacceptable fluctuations.
You ought to know that you can lose half of your bankroll in no time. On the other hand, if you get more conservative you won't earn enough to make a living.
I really don't see an other solution than taking up a job again. Only with such a safety net could you continue to play that way.
For cover, I can recommand you one very simple act.Whenever you are in a new casino you begin with small bets and when the count turns positive and you've just been winning you parlay your bet. In case you lost before, you double your bet as well and fake steaming to give them the impression of chasing your losses. You do this until you reach your normal betting level. Once they are used to your betting they won't raise eyebrows.
I wish you all the best.

Francis Salmon

Francis wrote:

In my view the notion of overbetting only exists from the player's perspective. The casino doesn't even know that BJMurda has only 35k. The only relevant question for the pit is whether a big bet is made in an advantage situation. If that's the case, the bigger the bet, the bigger the danger for the casino regardless of the underlying bankroll.

You are absolutely correct. The discussion on Green Chip dealt with betting more than 2 times Kelly. Most of us agreed with your statement above. One poster argued that the casino had the advantage over those betting more than 2 times Kelly.

Dr 21

Are you betting two hands of $250 each or 2 hands that are each $125? I believe it is the latter.

I wanted to respond earlier to your comment that 'vegas picks off counters quickly', but wasn't sure about your betting level. Now that you have clarified that, I would like to add that at this level, playing max bet below $500, a player can play for a long time in Vegas without drawing too much attention.

That is kind of a blanket statement, and obviously there are stores that these amounts are above their comfort levels, but there are plenty of others that as long as you don't abuse them too badly and keep your sessions short and move around a lot, you can play unmolested. At least, that has been my experience for the 2 years that I have lived here.

Thanks for the comments again.

To clarify, my max bet is 2 hands of $250; so $500 total.
I am not a GC member.

My betting scheme if i am playing a 2 deck pitch game is as follows:
2 units at TC 2, 4 units at TC 3, 5 units at TC 4, two hands of 6 units at TC 5, two hands of 7 units at TC 6, etc up to two hands of $250.

If i am back counting a shoe game i am jumping in only at TC 4 and playing 2 hands at 4 units, two hands of 5 units at TC 5 etc. If the count goes down below TC 4 i am going to one hand for 1 or 2 units and riding out the shoe.

To Francis Salmon, i don't understand your conviction on me getting a job to further support my bank roll? I've built my bankroll from 10K. Do you think i have just gotten lucky in the 600 hours i have played. I understand the risk of losing half my roll; however, if that happens i adjust my betting scheme to what my roll can support. Explain your conviction if you would like.

If you put in your max bet only at TC+10 you might as well forget about it.I wonder why you had such frequent barrings with that careful betting scheme. It's probably because of your jumping in with big bets at shoe games.
Yes, I believe you have been lucky up to now.I don't think you can expect more than 60$/hour with your system in the long run.That's roughly 40k a year. If you can live on that,fine. But you should keep in mind that sooner or later you will get into a losing streak (happens to everybody) which will force you to cut down on your betting if you want to avoid total ruin.This means an even smaller win rate and your confidence will be gone as well. You can imagine where this vicious circle ends.
So, at the risk of repeating myself:If you want to stick to your system (with a better cover!) you ought to look for some regular income.

Francis Salmon

If I play all hands on a $5 dollar table with 4 decks or greater with myself heads up or even with a full table, tell me if I would attract much heat, if any, with this betting schedule. At the moment, I am not concerned about ROR as much as getting kicked out. What are your thoughts below

TC 1< $5
TC 2 $10
TC 3 $25
TC 4 $50
TC 5> $100

I know I can easily get away with up to $50 without any notice but what are your thoughts when I occassionaly bet $100? Would I be noticed very much. Again, this wouldn't happen all too often.
Thanks,
Brendan

Being active almost exclusively in Europe I am not the right person to answer that question. I only know that on the old continent, you would have zero problems.
Personally, I use a much quicker progression.

Francis Salmon