EV, Variance, & Making Money !

First off, don't drill me about my spelling. I'm from Oklahoma and they didn't teach the subject in school. I'm sure many of you have spoke/thought about this before. Hopefully you can give me some insight.

Can it be profitable for a person with a small BR or someone wanting to bet larger then there BR allows to give up/change certain indices with high variance in order to lower the risk of loosing your BR? Are there strategy changes that lower EV and variance that can ultimately be overcome with the increased betting unit for a given BR? Obviously the EV will be lower because it is an expectation based on any given unit or number. But what about the actual ROI for a given BR? A sim on this would be interesting. Everything I've read about BJ talks like EV is the most important stat. I want to make sure that I don't get too caught up in EV and loose sight of my mission which is to make money.

> Are there strategy changes that lower EV and variance that can ultimately be overcome with the increased betting unit for a given BR?

Yes indeed. Check out Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack for a discussion of risk averse indices. This book is a must have if you are serious about the game.

Basically, by increasing the index at which you make a few high-variance plays, such as doubling 10vT, you can reduce fluctuations. The lower EV is more than made up for by the reduction in variance. This will allow you to play at a higher level with the same risk, or at the same level with a lower risk.

This is no excuse for overbetting your bankroll though. Starting out with a small, replenishable bankroll and playing to a high risk of ruin can be a good strategy if you are prepared to lose the lot a few times. If your bankroll is not replenishable, you must play to an acceptable risk of ruin. Backcounting, and playing only in favourable situations, is one good way to reduce bankroll requirements.

> First off, don't drill me about my spelling.

LOL, been posting on ap.com have you? Best of luck!

>LOL, been posting on ap.com have you? Best of luck!

Not for awhile. Some people do mistake my quest for BJ knowledge with a quest for spell check. To many english majors.

Good luck to you as well,
Okie