Since the EV of the typical 5-100 game is only about $15,why do the
casinos get so upset about a small number of counters?
It's $15 more profit. It's really just that simple. The major casinos are all owned by publicly traded corporations and under enormous pressure these days to grow earnings quarter after quarter no matter what. This translates into alot of pressure on pit crews and casino management to squeeze every last penny possible out of their customers or loose their jobs. In my opinion, this is how they think these days.
Most casinos and floor people have no idea about the actual damage counters cause. They think of counters as people who can take hundreds (thousands) out of the casino EVERY time they play. No joke.
Remember that a blackjack table requires paying a dealer, materials, depreciation, heat, lights, comps, a portion of a critter's salary, etc., etc... Also, taxes are usually levied against revenue, not profits like most companies.
That said, it's fair to say that a casino is probably even losing money against a low-rolling, error-free, basic strategy player, much less a counter, and BS players generally don't get heat.
So, if you're spreading 5-100 red at a pit full of red-chip players and a fair percentage of those players are playing BS 97% efficiently, it's pretty easy to imagine how much of that other red-chip action your edge can negate and just how much leverage the casino can gain, given their cost structure, by backing you off.
Spok
I have read that a spread of 5-100 should yield an EV of $100 per hour (the card counter's high bet per hour). Is this inaccurate?
Average bet=25
Average edge=1.1%
Number of Hands=60/hr Multiply.
For vrious reasons this is likely to a slight overstatenet $15hour
seems to be the industry standard
Thank you, John. But how does one arrive at $25 as the average bet in a 5-100 spread.
My result came from a deep-deck simulation.Another way to think of this is
to multiply the peobability of a $100 bet by $100 and similarly for
the $5 bet then add the two products. The $25 answer is an overstatement in that
in that it assumes all bets are $5 or $100 (Good way to get barred)
If you use Kelly the some of your $100 bets will only be say $50,
thus lower the average bet an yield per hour. Sometime I will run
things with 67% pen which seems to be more realistic. Yield per
hour will likely fall below $15.
Thoughtful post, Spok. Off to the side of this topic... what about BS players getting heat? You note that generally speaking BS players do not get heat. Have you known of straight BS players being backed off? (Non-counters, that is, who are nonetheless winning with perfect BS) Thanks.
Although the EV in a 5-100 game is only$15, the standard deviation is
much much larger. Indeed on several occasions I have won $1000 in an
hour and other times have lost that much. The pit critters seem to
ignore the losses and pounce on the players who momentarily got lucky.
and that guy had the unfortunate occurance of his wife showing up during the shuffle so he innocently dropped from green to red. That place (Riv) is paranoid anyway at their DD tables.
Otherwise, no.. I've never seen a BS player get heat at all if he
didn't vary his bet suspiciously. It's universally known in all casinos that bar players that a player must spread his bets in rounds 2 thru x to some degree to play at an advantage. I've often seen big-winning players being watched more closely but I've never seen them get real heat if their play didn't insinuate counting.
I've frequently seen players using credit-card sized BS charts at the table with no heat as well.. many casinos sell them in their gift shops. I have even used these cards as camo on occasions in concert with off-the-shuffle diversionary bet ramps... usually 10 or 15 minutes into a session after a plus-count bet ramp got them checking out the new arrival (me).
Spok
especially one old geezer who does not wear a ID tag.
have ramped up my bets from red to green when winning, and them immediately dropped back down to a single red chip and have not been aware of heat. Sounds like a good "cover" tactic to bring the cheat sheet to the table. Once, playing only BS (but also counting along, Hi/Lo) the deck became extremely favorable (+10 at half a deck and the dealer was dealing another hand... ) and I plopped down $300 after previously betting only $5 - $45 per hand all night, saying, "Goodnight everyone, I'm off to bed," win or lose. You guessed it. I lost the hand. I guess one must stick to one system or the other...!
I am a card counter for 5 months and also a casino manager for 10 years, till I started card counting I was thinking that a card counter can win thounsands of dollars.But it doesnt seem like this.
At least some of the "standard deviation" is caused by the flaw and
improper play caused by it.
counting isnt easy.i had a conversation with a pit boss i worked with who took the basic card counting class that all bosses take and he asked me if i win everytime i play.i was shocked and amazed that he thought i won everytime.i dont know what they teach in CC 101 bill,but the teachers must be morons who never played a day in their lives.what kind of class does a casino manager have to take?
This particular error crops up every so often. No, a counter cannot expect to earn one max bet per hour. Even under the best conditions, your expectation does not come any where near that. Under the most common conditions, your expectation is probably lower than one average bet per hour. Under bad conditions, it can be one minimum bet per houe (or less).
