Free Forum - Early surrender 20/05/2017 09:43

Fabian

Posts count: 10

Topics count: 6

May 20, 2017, 5:43:06 AM

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Hello, I have found a casino where they have early surrender like every casino in my town, but the thing that is special is that they have not been mentioning anything yet (I have only been there a couple of times) when I am surrendering against an ace which is not allowed on the other casinos in the town. The house edge for the rules are -0.08, does that mean that you have an edge over the casinos if you are playing perfect basic strategy, or do you have deviate as well to get that edge? If that is the case, would you recommend me to max bet every hand the running count is +, regardless of the true count because I have an advantage?

Do you know the indexes for early surrenders, not only against an ace but also against a 10? I'm unable to find them and would appreciate a lot if I could get some nice answers to these questions.

anonimuss12086393

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May 20, 2017, 11:59:02 AM

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First of all, what count system are you using? Most generic count systems are based on true counts. When you play perfect basic strategy you reduce the house advantage to the minimum which in this case would be the -0.08 you mention. Basic strategy in and of itself doesn't give you an edge. Assuming you are saying the house edge in this case is 8/10 of one percent most card counting systems in general give you an advantage of 1/2 of one percent for each +1 of true count so you would not have an advantage here until your true count is +2. You would maximize your win rate making your maximum bet at a TC of +2 but your variance would be maximized also. We're not even considering your longevity at this game either. You need to say what count system you use, the rules, number of decks, and penetration of the blackjack game you are considering, and your intended bet spread. Just because a game is blackjack doesn't mean it is beatable. There are people here who can sim your game for you and probably will provide exact answers. If you want to play this game seriously you should consider getting blackjack simulation software. It's a small investment to eliminate the guesswork.
*I forgot this is about ES so the house advantage as you wrote it is -8/100 of a percent so you would have an edge at TC+1 and higher for max bets but as I pointed out the variance would be massive.

BJT

Posts count: 255

Topics count: 32

Jun 2, 2017, 6:30:21 AM

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I think you were talking about ESA versus ES10? ESA adds about 0.3% to basic ev. Positive off-the-top doesn't mean you can bet whatever bug you like. 0.1% positive EV game betting 10 Kelly reduces your bankroll growth rate.

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