"Due-Ness" of Slot Machines, Standard Deviation, Faulty Thinking

I read recently about using standard deviation to help with winning at slots. In other words, if one were to 'track' machines to note when the most recent win was for each, then, in theory (but I know you guys are going to slam this 'theory,' probably using the argument that slots have no 'memory - but wait a minute: aren't the slots programmed to have to 'pay' at a certain percentage or number of spins, so maybe they do have a 'memory') doesn't that provide some data in terms of how 'due' (there's that word again!) the machine is.

If the above is flawed (i.e., the slots have no 'memory'), then what the heck is the benefit of standard deviation (which takes into account short-term vs. long-term by incorporating # of spins into the standard deviation equation)!!!! I mean, if a machine is supposed to pay out every 54 spins but has gone 332 spins without 'paying,' then doesn't the standard deviation math tell us that the likelihood of that happening is X and that therefore each successive spin carries with it a higher likelihood of 'paying?'

Does that change the probability of getting tails on the 11th flip?

The coin is "programmed" to return 50% tails. Wanna bet the house the 11th result is tails? Each spin of a slot machine is independent just like each flip of a coin.

aren't the slots programmed to have to 'pay' at a certain percentage or number of spins, so maybe they do have a 'memory') doesn't that provide some data in terms of how 'due' (there's that word again!) the machine is.

Machines aren't programmed like that anymore than a coin is programmed to be flipped 50 heads and 50 tails after 100 flips. Anything is possible and what is important in the long run is the denominator not the numerator. Over 1,000,000 spins a 90% payback slot machine might be actually returning 93% or 87%. After 10,000,000 spins assuming the machine returned exactly 90% for those next 9,000,000 spins the machine would still be just above or below 90% for the full 10,000,000 spins. What has changed isn't that the machine suddenly started paying more, just that the sample size got larger to that any flux to the plus or minus side becomes less significant.

In the short run anything is possible. That's why people still play negative expectation games.

and you and your gang (sorry, "team') have been monitoring it, then it might be more likely to keep on hitting jackpots.