Double Down or NOT?

Bankroll = $10,000

The TC=0 and you bet minimum of $25. You get 9,2 vs. T. The count has dropped to �1. Do you still double down in this situation? I say NO! Just take a hit. If you double you will definitely overbet your bankroll. You have no positive edge at this point in time.
But, let�s stop and take a look what we have here. The count is �1, Right? If the count would have been �1 before you got your two cards would you have bet 2 units? Obviously NOT. So, why would you double your bet now when you don�t have the best of it?

Now, let�s say the TC=+2 which gives you 0.5% edge over the house. You next bet is Bank*0.5% = $50. You get 9,2 vs. T. The count now is at +1 and you don�t have any edge at this point. The game is even. Would you still double? I say NO! If you double your bet the only thing what you will accomplish is increasing the VARIANCE for no monetary gain whatsoever. Just take a hit. Now, if the dealer�s Upcard would have been any card under 9 you would double down because you would have in action exactly Bank*Edge. Also, you would have double down if your 11 would have been 5,6 or 7,4 and probably 8,3.

Now, let�s say the TC=-3 and you bet $25. You get 8,8 vs. T. The count is �4. So, you will Split for another $25. You get on your first 8 a 3 for a total of 11. The count is �3. Would you double down? I say No! But if you do you will have 3 bets on negative count. But, hey! ..do whatever you want! Ok, let�s say you do double. Now let�s go to the next hand and you get �lucky� again and get another 3 for a total of 11 and the count is at �2 now. Do you double down on your second hand? Let�s say you do.
You have now $100 riding on a TC=-2. You have in action 1% of your bank when you�ve got �1.5% against you. You don�t have the best of it. Why would you do that?

Puiu

"You don�t have the best of it. Why would you do that?"

Because you have the least worse of it.

See, this tells me that you Cyrus don�t have a clue how to beat the game. This tells me why players that have your mentality cannot be consistent winners. They can�t be winners, period!

I agree with splitting the 8,8 because you have the least worse of it in the first place but certainly I wouldn�t go for double after split when instead of having in jeopardy $25 I would have $100 when the house has 1.5% against me. This move alone is part of the mentality that casino loves it. Quadrupling the amount of money when the house has the edge. When you lose that bet, you can be sure you will lose more then you win in the long run because you�ll get more then 50% a small card on your 11s when the edge is �1.5% against you. Go figure! But, hey! .., go ahead and do it.

Puiu

At a TC of -1, your average edge is -1%. However, an 11 v 10 gives you a significantly positive EV. Blackjack for Blood has a chart that gives you your expectation for every hand you have, versus any upcard. I'd guess you have about a 15% advantage with this hand normally, and maybe 14% with a TC of -1. Doubling down reduces your edge, but if it is still above 8% or so (depending on the variance you can tolerate, which isn't much betting 1/40th of your bankroll in minus counts), it pays to double.

For risk averse indices, I think this is still a solid double until a TC of -3.

What makes you think you have a 1% disadvantage with a 9,2 vs T at -1?

You double down on 11 vs T until the count reaches -4.

Your posts in the past have shown a better knowledge than this, so I can only conclude that your statement of being at a disadvantage with 11 vs T at -1 has to be just another attempt to do whatever you think you are doing spreading mis-information.

big surprise.

Puiu-
If you were trying to protect a small BR or just looking at a single session I can understand your logic but to say you will loose more in the long run is stupid. When you don't double you can be sure that you haven't lowered the house edge against you. Go figure! But, hey! .., go ahead and do it. If BS or the index calls for it, it is the best move.

Dear Puiu,

My index for not doubling is -5 in the game I play. I don't even know the indexes below -1 because I never play there, I had to look this one up. There is a name for people that think they know what is going to happen against the statistical and mathematical expectations. It's called a "Gambler". You come here and post all kinds of plagerised passages and all kinds of "progressions" and make assertions that we all know are total fabrications. You ridicule real advantage players. Puiu have a moment of honesty with yourself and see the truth your a gambler that lies to himself that hes an advantage player. You lie to yourself so much that it doesn't surprise me that you lie to us and don't know it from the truth.

The discovery of Nothing!

Many people have been conditioned to substitute fantasy for reality. Watch out you're not a component of that ignoble fraternity.

Seems to me you are confusing the house edge before any cards are dealt to the expectation for a specific hand (i.e., 83 vs X) *after* the cards have been dealt.

One important fact you have ignored is that the possibility of getting that Three on your Eight is *included* in the total expectation for that count, and is an important part of the reason you are supposed to split the Eights in the first place.

Therefore, failing/refusing to make the double can only have the effect of making the *initial* expectation for that count *worse*!

In effect, you are denying yourself some of the benefit of the Double After Split rule which, of course, can only have the effect of increasing the overall house edge for the entire game.

Following your logic re not doubling after getting a Three on one of your split Eights, would you also refuse to resplit if you got another 8 on one of your Eights?

Sorry, your "logic" is just plain silly.

Dear Old Coot,

The splitting of the 8's effectively turns a 16 in two 8's not exactly a players dream but with a lot better probability than the 16 ever had. Now we have two eights just like if you were to spread to two hands. If I were plying two hands and I had an eight up against a 5 I would do what the index for my game told me to do. I'd double if the count were +4 and against a 6 i'd double at +2. If you don't belive your BS and indexes your guessing and if your guessing your gambling and if your gambling your losing.

>If you don't belive your BS and indexes your guessing and if your guessing your gambling and if your gambling your losing.<

Do the people on this board *deliberately* misread/misinterpret what is posted just to create arguments out of agreements?

Or maybe they just can't read, or are way behind on their ESL studies.

I told the guy (Puiu) he was "silly" for not making the plays called for by BS and the count indices, and you respond as though I had stated the opposite.

Can't you READ?!!!!!

You no spikka da Ainglesh?

Sheesh!

somma da tiem da anglish is nodda so goud.

I shouldn't have unloaded on you like that, and I apologize.

Combo of lack of sleep, frustration at other posters, and the increasing crankiness of advancing age .