Different Sample, Same Winning Outcome

Hello friends,

If my other posts bothered you, you may wish to not read further - what follows is more of the same from just another naive, inexperienced blackjack player :)

I want to thank you for your input in the below threads. Also, I�d like to report on my winning strategy. Not to my surprise, the strategy is working with yet a third sample of blackjack data. After going through 1591 manually (and professionally, by someone other than me) dealt hands of this third sample, my strategy is ahead 890.5 units. I have calculated a �win-rate� of 55.97% with this sample of 1591 hands. (I define win rate as a ratio of # of units won divided by non-push hands: i.e., 890.5/1591=55.97%.).

If my calculations are correct, according to 1591 hands of perfect 6-deck blackjack, one should expect to be at about 779.5 units instead of the 890.5 units my strategy has yielded thus far. At 890.5 units, it looks as though my strategy has yielded about + 111 units, or roughly $5 million dollars had I been playing at a $50,000 table (or about $25,000,000 at a $250,000 table). It's not my intention to start a thread about the soundness of the above math. Let's keep it simple: if the three samples I have used thus far are representative of the 'population' of blackjack played in casinos, then I can somehow become a very rich man.

I know I asked some of these same questions in an earlier post, and I realize most of you think I am na�ve or dishonest or crazy or some combination thereof, but I ask the other 4% of you: How do I proceed from here, given that I want to make millions but lack the $500,000 bankroll that I�d like to have to get started? Write a book? Somehow sell the idea to Hollywood? Advertise on Craigslist?

Also,
1) If I implement my strategy in a real casino or an online casino, eventually the principles behind the strategy will become evident to casino personnel and other players. Though the strategy is mathematically sound and not illegal, and though it does not involve any calculators, gadgets, communication devices, secret glasses, residue, or whatever, can�t casino personnel eventually ask me to leave their premises (even if I have attorneys and other witnesses at my side) if I continue to show a steady and logical profit.

2) If they are able to understand how I am able to gain an edge without counting, will this mean that my strategy will become worthless because of possible subsequent casino countermeasures such as changing rules, etc.

3) I�m thinking I need an ally, someone that I can trust that knows more about real-casino blackjack operations than a numbers geek like me. I have told absolutely nobody about how this strategy works. It seems clear to me that if I were to have the opportunity (after asking them to sign some sort of non-disclosure agreement) to spend 1 hour with the likes of, say, Dr. Wong or Don S, that they would say that my strategy would not be easy to implement but that it is mathematically sound. So, any ideas are welcomed. For example, at a non-casino location interested parties could choose an off-duty dealer of their own to deal me X number of hands while he/she is somehow blind to exactly how I play. Also, can one copyright this kind of information? Perhaps an attorney could help me out?

4) Perhaps the only solution is to keep the strategy to myself and save my money until over time I can slowly increase my bankroll. It�s just so frustrating to have a strategy that is showing so much promise but not be able to really utilize it in a high-stakes manner.

you should just go and play yourself. You could turn a bankroll of $1000 into millions in very short order.

Good Luck.

I have hesitated to join in this thread, for obvious reasons, but will make a few comments here, since you did mention my name.

No matter what the strategy, for any play, team, system, etc., I would say that just about anyone would tell you to start small and run a test.

I've been involved in the securities industry for 26 years, and while I was at Morgan Stanley, we had dozens of people come to us with "sure-fire" trading systems that couldn't fail to win millions. Naturally, 99.9% of them were garbage, but that's not my point in writing.

What we always said to such people was that we would sign an NDA and then test the system, under real-world market conditions, for rather limited stakes. Then, on the basis of our evaluation, we would further assess the possibilities for any kind of future business relationship, ... or not.

Naturally, most of the time, we couldn't make any money, but, you have to understand how extremely difficult it is to formulate a solid mathematical opinion of such an endeavor by simply "doing." I have the utmost respect for Norm Wattenberger, our premier blackjack software guru and simulations master. Quite a while back, for certain studies, Norm changed his traditional modus operandi, from running, say, 400 million hands, to research a particular question, to running two billion hands! When I asked him why he changed, he said, simply enough, "400 million often isn't enough"!!

So, with the greatest respect for your 1591 hands (!), do you understand that this simply isn't sufficient to draw any meaningful conclusions (nor would 100 times that amount be) about the validity of your system?

My suggestion would be to furnish the system to someone like Norm, who would categorize the rules and systematize the approach, so that it could be simulated, and to allow him to conduct a proper investigation. I'm sure that he would sign an NDA and be willing to do that.

In the meantime, my grandfather had a saying: "If it's good, it'll keep!" Why don't you postpone your plan to win millions and simply start small, testing your system in real-world casino conditions and for small stakes. Take an impartial observer with you, if you like, to document the results.

Finally, if your system "passes" Norm's simulation, I'm sure that you will have multiple investors knocking down your door, provided that there is nothing illegal in the process. It may seem unlikely to you, but I can't tell you how many times something can work for tens upon thousands of hands, only to break down and revert to unprofitable somewhere further down the line.

I hope this helps.

Don

...to run your system through my blackjack engine.

Don wins Post of the Month (on the last day of the month yet) and wins free access to the free pages for the remainder of the year. Really excellent advice. If you really want to test it without the simulations, get $5000 from credit cards, relatives, wherever, and go to a $25 minimum table and test it. (this is just putting numbers on Don's advice) I must caution that even if you win, it still doesn't validate your system. Sample size is still too small.

"If that is the case, please explain what you think is different between manually dealt cards and a computer model which randomly "shuffles" the cards so that we can attempt to disabuse you of whatever difference you think exists. Are you concerned about the randomness of modern-day random number generators? The inefficiency of manual shuffles? What?"

I'm afraid that you may have hit the nail on the head. I'm sensing a possible card-clumping, Boris-type approach.

Overkill, enlighten us, please.

Don

Is to alternate high bet and low bet between hands. Unless, of course, he figured out that that wasn't going to work, so he has came up with some other system.

Here is a link to his original post.

read again Don's excellent post. You need to have many more trials to really see if your system is a winning one. Your posted win is impressive but Allan Wilson's book demonstrates what can happen in a even game. His chart shows a loss of 50 units after 15,400 hands of home play and a win of 110 units after 25,000 trials. This was a trial about testing basic strategy blackjack with flat bets. If you are not counting and just flat betting shoes (typical Vegas rules) without "gadgets" then you have a small mathematical disadvantage in the long run of play.

"...do yourself the following favor. Play your system on paper for a length of time sufficient to double your bankroll several times. Double it three times, say, so that you have eight times what you started with. Don't settle for winning 20 percent or 50 percent of your bankroll, or even doubling it just once. Double it three times. Give it the acid test. Get into the "long run" with it. My definition of the long run, for testing a system, is a length of time sufficient to double your investment three times. (Most system players make the mistake of too short of a test!). For your test on paper, you might do well to use the random number table in Appendix F.
If you succeed in doubling it three times without going broke, try to do it again, and if that succeeds too, write to me and I shall publish it in the next edition of this book as the rarest event of the...century." Allan Wilson The Casino Gambler's Guide.

He also says:
"So many million people have devoted so much time over the years, both in this country and abroad, to devise successful betting systems, that it seems extremely unlikely that nobody would have stumbled onto at least on such system if any existed."

You question on #1: "can�t casino personnel eventually ask me to leave their premises (even if I have attorneys and other witnesses at my side) if I continue to show a steady and logical profit."
The answer is YES. Any casino has the right to not let you play for whatever reason. Win or lose.

Let's pretend that you do have a winning system. In order to succeed you will need to have experienced players that can make it happen. Without that you will not last too long and your dream will not become a reality.

OK, perhaps it is time to attempt a sim. But, as I have said before in a prior post, I don't think it will be possible to do.

I appreciate your responses. No, I cannot really disclose much more. But if someone can tell me how to contact Norm, and if he has an honorable reputation, that sounds like an excellent place to start.

Again, I don't think a sim is possible, but perhaps I am wrong. Can someone tell me how I may contact Norm and ask him if he's willing to help me out?