Something that I've been pondering on for the last couple of days is the risk of ruin calculation in the CVCX simulations. The major factor for someone who is just starting out, like myself, is the available bankroll that I'm willing to put up for this endeavor. I'll be transparent here, when I'm ready to hit the casino IRL I am going to use a starting bankroll of $2000. I know, I know, it's on the low end but it's what I've decided to do. Since it's on the lower end, the Risk of Ruin in my 'high-low sweet 16 fab 4' simulation starts out higher than I would consider ideal. I don't plan on back counting, however I still have that box checked since I plan on leaving any shoe that hits negative double digits at any point - and depending on how deep into the shoe I am I will probably take a walk to the restroom even sooner. Checking this box certainly lowered the Risk by a lot, but I can't take that as face value since it assumes I'm not playing anything under a 0 count - so I'm somewhere in-between having the box checked and not checked - I'd say around a 10 percent chance of ruin. (By the way, does anybody know of a different way to set this up in the CVCX software?)
This is still high for my liking but it is what it is, and the only thing that I can truly change in the software without lying to myself is the starting bankroll. Then it dawned on me that the risk calculation is likely assuming that my bankroll never changes. If I win a hand, then suddenly my bankroll is a tad higher and my risk is a tad lower. On the flip side, if I lose a hand then suddenly my bankroll is a tad lower and my risk is a tad higher. This may sound wildly obvious but I think it is an important consideration when paying attention to the numbers that these sims spit out. In the unlikely event that somebody considers their winnings on a $2000 bankroll as untouchable, then yes I suppose the risk of ruin would stay the same perpetually, but call me crazy - I don't think that's anybody's intention when starting out this low. The moral of the story is this - anytime your bankroll changes whether it's via your own personal investment or via a win or loss, your risk changes - and it is probably in your best interest to act accordingly.
This is still high for my liking but it is what it is, and the only thing that I can truly change in the software without lying to myself is the starting bankroll. Then it dawned on me that the risk calculation is likely assuming that my bankroll never changes. If I win a hand, then suddenly my bankroll is a tad higher and my risk is a tad lower. On the flip side, if I lose a hand then suddenly my bankroll is a tad lower and my risk is a tad higher. This may sound wildly obvious but I think it is an important consideration when paying attention to the numbers that these sims spit out. In the unlikely event that somebody considers their winnings on a $2000 bankroll as untouchable, then yes I suppose the risk of ruin would stay the same perpetually, but call me crazy - I don't think that's anybody's intention when starting out this low. The moral of the story is this - anytime your bankroll changes whether it's via your own personal investment or via a win or loss, your risk changes - and it is probably in your best interest to act accordingly.
