New to BJ. Casino where I play has "King" Continuous Shuffle Machines. Thus card counting will not work. Just read the book "Blackjack" by Patterson, Claims he has a program "Target 21" that can spot a player friendly table vs a dealer friendly table. Wants $295 for program. Anyone have any info on the program or on Patterson? Thanks
There are plenty of reviews on the "Net" just punch in "Blackjack Patterson" using Google and read away. Here is just one.
http://www.blackjack-adviser.com/bj8.htm
Avoid books by Jerry Patterson, John Patrick, Richard Harvey, and Donald Dahl.
Their "systems" are worthless.
Here's a link to more information about the TARGET scam.
Does that mean that Walter Thompson is a good read?
You need to find another casino if all your casino has is CSMs. Nothing a newby can do will beat CSMs. There are debates about advanced methods to beat CSMs, but they are not something you can worry about as someone new to blackjack. Find a casino where you can avoid CSMs, and practice your card counting.
Patterson used to teach card counting in the 1970s and 1980s, and helped popularize early forms of shuffle tracking. But then he started selling TARGET, which has no mathematical justification. People who knew him can't really account for why he started doing this since he must know it is crap. TARGET is indeed a scam.
Hope this helps.
Good luck,
sargon
Add Walter Thomason to the avoid list. I forgot about him.
I ran a computer test of this when it first came out -- early to mid '80s. It was among the *worst* "systems" I ever tested.
Some of it deals with the symptoms of high and low counts. You get plus points when things happen which indicate a + count; you get minus points when things happen which indicate a - count. But sometimes you get + points after events which would drag the count down (e.g., +5 points if you get a snapper and -5 points if the dealer gets a snapper; and +2 points when the dealer shows a Five and -2 points when the dealer shows an Ace.).
Some of it deals with "table selection": look for happy players with lots of chips in front of them making unusually large bets in proportion to the money in front of them, full ashtrays, etc. These are supposed to be signs of a "dumping" table.
In essense, the "system" can be summed up as follows: When you're hot, you're hot; and when you're not, you're not.
The basic fallacy is the underlying assumption that if you're hot you'll tend to *stay* hot, and when you're losing you'll tend to continue losing. This, of course, is nonsense, and cannot be supported by any legitimate math.
to the bj21.com Blackjack Glossary :
Like to thank everyone who sent me an e-mail on the Target 21 System and Patterson. I have a lot to learn about BJ and appreciate the comments.
I hate to be forgotten!
Just out of curiosity, what do you find objectionable in "109 Ways to Beat the Casinos" or "The Experts' Guide to Casino Games"?
The table doesn't behave itself. It's a wild and unpredictable beast. The number of times I'll be at a 'hot' table, to see some poor fool place a black or 2 and lose.
Still, moving to a 'hot' table, and backbetting when the table turns positive works into camo. Just looks like you're trying to take advantage of 'The Flow'.
I haven't seen "The Expert's Guide to Casino Games" in quite awhile, and don't really remember anything about it.
"109 Ways to Beat the Casinos" is mis-titled. The advice won't help "beat" the casinos. It's mostly good advice on how to LOSE LESS QUICKLY, though. I suppose that the title "109 Ways to Lose Your Money Less Quickly at Casinos" wouldn't sell. It would be a more honest title, though. Actually, it's a decent book for the total casino neophyte who knows nothing at all, and wants to "make his money last longer."
Where we part company is at "21st Century Blackjack," which is worthless nonsense, and discredits the decent work you did for casino beginners in "109 Ways." Printing the 21st Century book is a waste of trees. You should be ashamed of selling it.
IB
Since "21st Century" was published, I've received 141 letters or e-mails from readers who tested my recommendations and found them to be beneficial to their game. 90% of the reviews on Amazon are positive in nature.
But, I'll add your vote to the dozen or so bj21 posters who dissaprove of my system but have never tried it in a casino.
Stumbled across one of his books at Barnes and Nobels last week. All based on the "revolutionary discovery" that computer simulations do not address "real world shuffles".
Enough pseudo-math in the book to seem rational (to those who do not understand probability and statistics)
Enough hype about revolutionary, never disclosed before secrets to make any skeptics neck hair bristle.
Mostly based on "hot spots" at tables based on these non-random shuffles, and play variations based on hole card estimation and such.
Not anti-counting, uses a bit of counting techniques but emphasizes play varations by hole card estimation (without mentioning card counting and playing deviations account for the exact same phenomena and are a very small part of the edge in counting). Emphasizes hole card esimation based on what is showing on a given round, even for multi-deck games. Never talks at all about expected win rates of his approach (best I could tell).
Seemed to be a blend of a little bit of everything, and a whole bunch of garbage (so many statements were just flat out wrong from a mathematics and probability standpoint).
Not to mention it was so confused, jumbled, went in random directions, that if any poor sap spent the time to master this system, "I pitty the fool." Its harder than KO counting by far, even with the Illustrious 18 play variations.
And it sold for $20!
