I met casino who dont put cards into machine right away.The dealer creates about 3-4 deck tower.And she takes a deck from it,if there are not many cards in csm.Is there possible cardcounting?
I doubt the game is beatable from the way I am reading your post, but if you were to explain a little more maybe others or myself could help.
exactly what's happening with the cards in the discard tray. ??? How big does the stack get before they are reinserted into the CSM? We need also know how many total decks are being used at the CSM table.
we play 6deck game .
When i enter the table,the dealer wont put the card back to machine until 3-4 deck is played ,then she continiously puts about one deck into machine(so she takes higher layers of decks and puts one of them(deck) into machine)
If the D takes only the "higher" layer of about 52 cards from the discard tray and keeps inserting that back in into the CSM then the lower portion of the discard tray never gets back to the CSM. I don't believe you are explaining it correctly.
You are playing a six deck game that is shuffled in a CSM, however from the 6 decks 3 or 4 decks are played before 1 deck is stuck in the csm to be shuffled.
If my understanding is correct, you are at best getting 66% (4/6)penetration, which makes the game unplayable IMO.
privador,
Say you walk up just as the table opens for the day, so that the discard rack contains no cards: all six decks are being shuffled inside the machine.
You start playing. After two decks (call them decks A and B) have been played, let's say the HiLo runnning count is +16 (lots of small cards came out in decks A and B). Since the discard rack contains only two decks (A on the bottom and B on the top), the dealer leaves them in the discard rack.
The game continues. After another deck (deck C) goes by, the discard rack now contains three decks (A, B, and now C, from bottom to top). Thus, the dealer decides to return some of the cards to the machine. He takes the top deck from the discards (deck C) and returns them to the machine, so the discard rack once again contains just decks A and B.
The game continues again. After another deck (deck C') goes by, the discard rack now contains three decks (A, B, and now C', from bottom to top). Thus, the dealer decides to return some of the cards to the machine. He takes the top deck from the discards (deck C') and returns them to the machine, so the discard rack once again contains just decks A and B.
Now let's stop and analyze this situation. The discard rack always contains decks A and B: they are never returned to the shuffling machine.
Thus, if these two decks contain 16 more small cards than big cards (as in the example above), that means that the TC for the remaining four decks inside the machine is +16/4 = +4, which means that instead of a roughly 0.5% disadvantage, you have a roughly +1.5% advantage.
On the other hand, if these decks contain more big cards than small cards, then your disadvantage will be even worse than 0.5%.
The key, of course, is to know the count for the first two decks. If you're present while they're dealt, then you know their count immediately. If you approach a game in progress, where decks A and B are already fixed in the discard rack, then you have to estimate the count.
To estimate the TC, wait for the dealer to return some of the discards to the machine. Keep track of the RC for deck C (in other words, for the first deck out of the machine). Repeat for the next four or five deck C's, then average the results: this should be close to the actual TC for the four decks remaining in the machine.
If the approximate TC is +3 or higher, sit down and play! Your should have an advantage of at least 1%. While you're playing, keep checking the RC for each deck C, so ensure that your approximation is accurate.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
It is hard to believe that the house would not be rotating in those bottom 2 decks. Sure would be nice though to be the first player at the table when that new CSM game starts, especially if the first two decks create a monster count for the rest of the pack. Hog Heaven! :-)
It would be a great trick to make the smart player think that he'll gain an advantage from the cards remaining in the machine. They "fix" the discards to make you think that the remainder of the shoe holds an incredible player advantage. The "smart" player, upon seeing the abundance of small cards going into decks A and B would never dream of complaining that the cards aren't being thoroughly and fairly rotated through the machine. Instead, he would indeed feel as if he'd found Heaven. It's the perfect set-up.
Then he finds out the hard way that the remainder of the shoe is just as bad as the part he's seen. Since the entire shoe isn't being rotated, no observer is in a position to verify that the game is being played with a bogus shoe.
It wouldn't be surprised if a few "smart" players return to the same place again for a second whipping, thinking that the first night's losses were a statistical aberration. It's probably both a bogus set-up AND a bogus CSM.
The only way this represents a potential opportunity is if the player can witness a "wash" before the decks are first loaded into the machine. Then, if decks A and B hold an abundance of small cards, the candy store is open.
But if it sounds too good to be true, ....
Arnold Ziffel buys a Laptop,
You may be right about the house shorting the decks. If privador chooses to play this game, he should probably perform the TC check test that I explained in my previous post, even if he does see the first two decks go into the discard rack.
By the way, I loved your work in Green Acres!
Dog Hand
I think he is talking about playing every hand at the 66% penetration level. That is much better than playing a normal game where the deck is dealt to the 66% level. It would be Wong-alert type stuff.
That said, privador does not sound like a US citizen. If so, it is quite possible some form of preferential shuffling is going on.
