craps system

i know this is a BJ board, but ive been trying go get some insight on my craps system that i thought out, havent tested in it casino's yet but every time i simulate it it brings back a profit albeit a small one....

here we go....

$10 DONT PASS bet
$5 Pass bet

so on the come out...7,11,12 loses 5 dollars and 2,3 wins 5 dollars

after the come out you lay 5 dollar odds behind the pass line bet, now if the shooter craps out you break even, but if he hits his points your making $1 on 6,8 $3 on 5,9 and $5 on 4,10

like i said its no way to break the casino by any means, and you can up the units to any amount you want to increase your profits

also a very avid blackjack player, just wanted to know what people thought about this crap system

Assuming random dice rolls, every bet on the craps table has a negative expectation (except in some unusual circumstances - see Beyond Counting). You can't obtain a positive expectation from a sum of negative expectation bets. Therefore your system will not yield a profit in the long run.

that doesnt tell me anything, or any reasoning behind what you are saying. You are just saying that you cant beat craps therefore there isnt a system that can work at all???

the only way this system loses money is if rollers keep hitting 7,11,12 on the come out rolls...otherwise everytime someone craps out i break even, everytime someone makes a point im making money

and also magic an "odds" bet you are even with the house, has ZERO negative expectation which is what i would be getting for free basically with my dont pass evening out what im laying

it doesnt sound to me like you are very knowlegable with the game of craps

All bets or systems on craps are losers, negative expectation. The house edge in craps is not hiding around the corner but glaring straight at you. No matter which way you look, there It Is!

I have played and studied craps to a great degree and there is only 2 ways to beat it without outright cheating, actually 3 ways.

The first way is to chum up with a don't bettor who often will call of his or her bet after they are on the number. You should be able to take over those bets for the face amount and thus you have a positive expectation. This situation happens often, but you must establish a friendship with the uneducated don't player, buy them a drink or the like, chat them up, etc.

The second is to develop a golden throw while cutting the table in half, this can be done, I have done it on many occasions, but the casino will take action against you after a time, hopfully a long time.

The third is to force dealer error, this can be done in a number of ways and is best not talked about on chat forums. This can be mucho fun and a little dangerous, but not illegal.

7-11-or 12 on the comeout rolls...we'll...duh! You lose more come out rolls than your other hedge bets make up for...the house still gets 1.4% of your total line bet action.

If there is no way for your system to lose, then I suggest you get together all you have, get cash advances on all your credit cards, get a second and third mortgage on your house, and empty your IRA account and go to the casino immediately. If you're not willing to do this right now then chances are that deep down you know that your "system" is just another pipe dream.

that doesnt tell me anything, or any reasoning behind what you are saying. You are just saying that you cant beat craps therefore there isnt a system that can work at all???

I thought I did explain the reasoning. Your expectation on each bet in craps is (expectation)=(amount bet)*(house edge on bet). Since amount bet is positive and house edge is negative (or, indeed, zero for odds bets), your expectation cannot be positive.

the only way this system loses money is if rollers keep hitting 7,11,12 on the come out rolls...otherwise everytime someone craps out i break even, everytime someone makes a point im making money

The amount of money you expect to lose on those come out rolls will be greater than the amount you expect to win on the other possible rolls. I'll leave the math to you though.

it doesnt sound to me like you are very knowlegable with the game of craps

You are correct. However you asked for opinions from people in general, not just craps experts. Maybe someone will post an opinion you like better?

Your system will lose at the rate of approximately 1.4% x $15 per decision.

here a while ago when I was enquiring about non-BJ advantage play.

"The second is to develop a golden throw while cutting the table in half, this can be done, I have done it on many occasions, but the casino will take action against you after a time, hopfully a long time."

Just interested, how much practice did you need before you could throw the die with an advantage?

Please explain "golden throw" and "cutting the table in half". Are you talking about "dice scooting"?

Thanks,

phantom007

Cutting the table in half: Standing directly to the right or left of the stickman, so you are able to reach across the stick as you throw, effectively only tossing the dice less than half the length of the table (depending on the length of your arm), as opposed to standing at one end and firing the dice all the way across the full length of the table.

Golden Throw: I think this would be those guys who preset the dice in a certain combination, gently lob them against the wall using a consistent grip on the die, and try to get the dice to roll together on a single axis, so depending on the preset combination, certain numbers are more likely to come up then others. Good Luck!

I have been lurking on this board for awhile and now a topic has come up that I know something about. I took a course with Golden Touch Craps in March in Tunica where I learned how to control the dice to a degree. I have been in the black since then and I can definitely tell you it works, but it does take a lot of practice, almost everyday to stay tuned up. You can find out about this course at www.goldentouchcraps.com

Broken down by each come out roll:

2: frequency = 2.78%, result = +5.00, 5.00*2.78% = +0.14

3: frequency = 5.56%, result = +5.00, 5.00*5.56% = +0.28

4: frequency = 8.33%, chance of making=3/9=33.33%, result = +5.00,
8.33*33.33%*5.00 = +0.14

5: frequency = 8.70%, chance of making=4/10=40.00%, result = +2.50, 8.70*40.00%*2.50 = +0.09

6: frequency = 10.87%, chance of making=5/11=45.45%, result = +1.00, 10.87%*45.45%*1.00 = +0.05

7: frequency = 10.71%, result = -5.00, 10.71%*-5.00 = -0.54

8: frequency = 10.87%, chance of making=5/11=45.45%, result = +1.00, 10.87%*45.45%*1.00 = +0.05

9: frequency = 8.70%, chance of making=4/10=40.00%, result = +2.50, 8.70*40.00%*2.50 = +0.09

10: frequency = 8.33%, chance of making=3/9=33.33%, result = +5.00,
8.33*33.33%*5.00 = +0.14

11: frequency = 5.56%, result = -5.00, 5.56%*-5.00 = -0.28

12: frequency = 2.78%, result = -10.00, 2.78%*-10.00 = -0.28

Add them up and you get -0.12.

Mistakes you made:

7,11,12 loses 5 dollars

12 loses $10 because the don't pass bet pushes.

your making ... $3 on 5,9

5,9 pay 3/2, so make only $2.50.

Other comments:

also a very avid blackjack player, just wanted to know what people thought about this crap system

Your system wins/loses/pushes 30.7%/19.1%/50.2% of the time, so it seems you're winning more than you're losing.

If you flat bet $5 on the pass and the come bet, you expect to lose only 7 cents, and I think you will have as much fun.

Be careful on this board; the locals tend to be proficient in Math, but very deficient in manners. Posting losing system often results in less than polite responses.

i apperciate you analysis, thats the type of stuff i was wanting to know. So im expected to lose .12 cents and i am suppose to win 30 percent of the time....

one thing though the 12 doenst lose 10 dollars, if i play $10 DONT and a $5 pass, then the 7,11, AND 12 only lose 5 bucks. The 12 only loses 5 dollars b/c i am only losing by pass bet BEFORE odds are placed which is simply 5 bucks, while my dont does push....

that outta make the game slightly more favorable, but either way, doesnt seem like a bad way to see if you can make a little change

Check your probabilities for the occurrence of 5 through 9 on the come-out roll.

The easy way to figure out the EV:
House P.C., Pass Line with Single Odds: 0.848%
House P.C., Don't Pass: 1.364%

Total action per 36 come-out rolls (think $5 units):
Pass Line: 1 unit each come-out roll, plus 1 unit Odds when a point is established (24 times out of 36) = 60 units
Don't Pass: 2 units each come-out roll = 72 units

Weighted Ave. House PC for this problem:
(60 x .00848) + (72 x .01364))/132 = .01129 (or 1.129%)

For every 36 come-out rolls tg11 will have 132 x $5 = $660 in action. EV = $660 x (-1.129%) = -$7.45.