Coming up with a betting strategy

My bankroll is a $1000, and the game I play is 8 Deck, DOA, DAS, late insurance and a 2 deck cut. The initial house edge is .39% and the minimum bet is $10. I worked out the optimal bets and came up with the following numbers:

TC < 1 - bet 0
TC = 1 - bet $.84
TC = 2 - bet $4.64
TC = 3 - bet $8.44
TC = 4 - bet $12.24
TC = 5 - bet $16.04
TC = 6 - bet $19.84

For obvious reasons I'm going to have overbet in some circumstances. If anyone can suggest a money mgmt. system, (perhaps only a 1-3 or 1-4 spread) that allows me to play but also has a positive win expectation, and a low (whatever that means) risk of ruin? Thanks for any help.

I answered your thread below, but my basic advice would be to flat bet $10 and only play at TC +2 or greater. This should give you a decent ROR (5% or so) and also allow you to play a few hands.

Are your bets based on Kelly (75% of advantage X BR)? If so, (and with a $10 min, you could bet these amounts and have a 13.5% ROR. Of course, the schedule you presented also involves backcounting and only playing at a TC of +2 (unless the table min is REALLY low).

Basically, by flat betting $10, you overbet at a TC of +2, but underbet at TC >+2, so it evens out a bit. Hope this helps.

how much heat do you get backcounting in vegas these days?

I don't play in Vegas, so I wouldn't know. I think the real question is the relative heat between backcounting (with a low spread) and play-all. The key to backcounting is being able to blend in and it really helps if there are others standing around the tables not playing.

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