clumping

I had an interesting session at a san diego Indian casino. I ended up taking a $500 loss in the process of noticing something very interesting. I played at two different hand shuffled 5 deck games early in the evening on a friday night.

I sat down at a table that had just been cleared out, since I dont usually buy into the hot table / cold table mentality, I decided to get some one on one action in. I was using a 1-6 spread, $10 minimum bets. I started losing one hand after another, winning about 10% of the hands on the first 2 shoes I played. Luckily, during a couple of high count situations, I won the hands with my max bet out. This kept me interested enough, kept me from walking. After watching some of the guys walking by the table shaking their heads and rolling their eyes at me, (they were on the table right before I sat down, lost big) I decided to try another table, I just didnt feel like I was winning enough hands to have a chance at making any money.

I tried another hand shuffled table out, same kind of thing was happening, I was losing or pushing on most of my big bets and then in nuetral or slightly negative counts, I would hit an occassional blackjack. As I was losing hand after hand to 5 card 20's and 21's, there was an older lady behind me mumbling something. Since I am always interested in what makes people tick, ( I am a counselor) I decided to respond to the ladies comments, she was saying that the cards were clumped, the decks had not been shuffled well enough. She said something about the tables just opening up about an hour ago, then as the dealer was beating everyones stiffs with multi card 18's, 19's and 20's, she would point out that the cards were clumped. I looked at the cards and did notice that there were alot of the same suited cards along with large groups of smaller cards together, which would end up wiping the table out because everyone was standing per basic strategy, then when the big cards started coming after the count was a mile high, we would push on alot of 20's and blackjacks while some people took even money. the whole time this lady kept piping, "look at that, the cards are clumped, you should stop playing, you are going to take some big losses" She ended up being right, I lost $500 in about 2 hours, never once felt like my double downs were getting 10's in high counts, not getting the cards when the count was showing a large surplus of 10's. It was really frustrating. I have not played in the 3 weeks since.

Does anyone have any thoughts on card clumping, is this a fact or fiction. I am thinking that my little KO rookie choice of systems is not going to stand up to this kind of tactic if there in fact is a way for casino dealers to preserve the shuffle and the clumping that new cards might be naturally creating.
What do you think?

sorry...

and this has been proven over and over again for the last 20 years, both at the tables and on computers. I once thought there may be some truth to mild clumping due to the streaks in shoes. The fact is that just through normal variance in the game you will experience hot and cold shoes, and in streaks. It is completely normal. There is absolutely no way to predict an advantage based on what has happened when looking at pure wins and losses. The only things that has been proven is the count, whether you have been counting or you happen to know the beggining of the shoe has a positive count which is usually done through shuffle tracking. I think a study was even done by Wong with no shuffling or very poor shuffling and the result was the same. Gaining an advantage based on card clumping, or "hot and cold" shoes, is pure fiction.

Happy Counting,
kRis

if it were true, I think the actual SD would be considerably higher compared to computer sims. It seems logical but one of the stat geniuses could probably comment. The fact that the theoretical SD is so large for short period play is the very reason people "feel" card clumping exists and can be predicted. Although anyone who really believes it can be predicted is probably statistically challenged, a compulsive gambler, or both.

kRis

Maybe I just need to accept the fact that counting isnt going to exclude me from the random negative fluctuations that the game brings. But there is a part of me that would like to have some sort of evidence that it does not exist. check out these articles that I read on the subject, I am not sure what to make of them, there seems to be some statistical back ground on this stuff. check out the link below, it is long, cut and past it into your browser.
Thanks for your input,
that last session at the casino took alot of confidence away from my game, Hopefully more thoughtful responses like yours will give me the info I need to feel comfortable again.

http://64.4.26.250/cgi-bin/linkrd?_lang=EN&lah=3ce317ae63dfdc3ca040886dcc8c3af4&lat=1083738001&hm___action=http%3a%2f%2fwww%2eborisbj21%2ecom%2fPage8%2fpage8%2ehtml

cut and paste this whole thing in your browser

http://64.4.26.250/cgi-bin/linkrd?_lang=EN&lah=3ce317ae63dfdc3ca040886dcc8c3af4&lat=1083738001&hm___action=http%3a%2f%2fwww%2eborisbj21%2ecom%2fPage8%2fpage8%2ehtml

http://www.borisbj21.com/Page8/page8.html

Like I said this stuff has been refuted sooo many times for the last two decades. It really is old news. Even these articles you linked to are 10 years old! Slight non-randomness does exist but it has been proven over and over again that you cannot gain an advantage from the knowledge or lack thereof. In the end non-randomness fluctuates both to the right and to the left and what you are left with is a total equivalent to randomness. Since you cannot predict hot or cold future based on previous hot or cold results you CANNOT gain an advantage. But hey...anyone can be my guest and play based on hot and cold shoes. Trust me, you will be left with alot of comps and emtpy pockets.

Just think about it. There are so many players out there that play based on the "run of the cards". If it was that easy....well...just think about it. How many consistent AP's are out there? Very few and they are all counters. There aren't and never have been any AP's that play based on the "run of the cards". All the ones that claim to win are selling you something. The link you sent us two is from a guy trying to sell simulation software that he claims will aid you in tracking clumps. His articles are filled with mathematical and statistical errors. The guy is nothing but another scammer trying to make a buck.

"If the cards were TRULY random, running counts would nearly always hover around the zero-mark. There would of course be statistical fluctuations, but these would be the exception rather than the rule. In today's shoe games, on the average only about 1/4 of the cards are anywhere near random. During (approx.) the first 100-150 rounds (it varies) after new cards are brought in, clumping is even more excessive."

Wow! This guy is truly statistically challenged, and so is anyone who believes this. It is so funny because only 1/4 of the cards should come out at or near RC 0. Anyone who runs a "random" computer sim will see ~25% of the cards will hover at or near 0. The guy proves his own theory false. The only way you could possibly get all the cards to come out so that the RC stays at or near zero in a 6 or 8 deck shoe is to manually put them that way. This guy needs an education into the definition of what "random" means. Come to think of it, why am I debating this? Time to stop!

kRis

Just calculate your theoretical SD and you will probably find that you have not seen the worst. Good counters know where at least that 2 SD point is and mentally prepare for it. My guess is that you have not seen that miserable point yet, or even worse 3 SD's. As if our theoretical SD's weren't bad enough your author is claiming the actual SD is much larger for someone not playing the "run of the cards".

kRis

Up to this point I have been a little lazy about looking at the statistical implications of all that is blackjack. Most of what I have been doing is running with a system that fit my needs assuming that the experts are putting me on the right track. It looks like fell into a hole in the road, bought into some bad hypothesis'. This tells me that I need a little more education on the numbers so that I dont panic when I encounter a session that is outside of the norm.
Thanks for the start on my education, this should help with my anxiety levels at the tables next time.

But kRis is giving you excellent information and advice. Clumping does occur, in SD games as well as shoes. The problem is that, for most players, the only time they can recognize it is when the cards are being dealt; never before they are dealt, so they cannot get an advantage from it. If you become an expert shuffle tracker, you may be able to exploit clumps, or segments of cards that are either loaded with high or low cards, by cutting them into or out of play. But, be aware that over the last 15 years, I have known of two very serious, well banked teams that went busted doing shuffle tracking, even though members were excellent trackers. If you are not a tracker or sequencer, clumps may as well be ignored. PV

I think that I will stick to the KO system,
I just got back from Sycuan,
after a bit of a rollercoaster ride I was able to pull down $350 after about four hours of playing. There was about a $600 swing before I stepped off, Spreading red 1-6. I guess the Deviants were on my side tonight :0)
Thanks again for the advice,
I think my head is on straight again,
This seems to be the roughest part for me, getting through the losses without thinking that I am doing something wrong even though I am making the right bets...

For years at the grand victoria in indianna,players and dealers have heard me complain about the exact same subject you mentioned here.I took things one step further thank you,instead of comming in on a "just opened table" as you did,i often stood and watched the floor and dealers open new tables.I found some VERY interesting results that indeed reflect that the house is aware of clumping and is aware how it will reap huge profits for them.explain? you may say?
When the dealers open a bj table,if you pay close attention,as each deck in the shoe game is opened from the pack,it is "washed",mixed up,the cards are layed out and scattered by the dealer,,GIVING THE IMPRESSION to anyone looking,that indeed,yup,'THEM CARDS ARE MIXED UP".I found,after watching,AND TIMEING WITH A STOP WATCH AND PENCIL,
that the house KNOWS them cards arent as mixed up as they look when being washed.explain further? why yes.
on certain tables,and,on certain days,each deck wash was timed.When a "wash time" per deck,was only 30-45 seconds,{or,shorter wash times on average},,EVERY table that used shorter wash times,produced THE SAME PATTERNS OF CLUPMED CARDS,,ALWAYS!!!,,an aware player could sit and watch the same,original seguences of cards come out,shoe after show,for hours on end,,in the first hour,the cards would be in almost perfect original order.{original order meanng the same order they were in when in the seald pack..before opened.
the same,frequent 3,4,5,6 card twenty ones and high hands were being produced by the house.Suspicious and {confidant}{idiot maybe} i openely talked at the tables,,as the cards were dealt out on a packed table,,giving a clear shot of a lot of cards eack round,i would point and say",look here,,then count out,2,3,4,5 of spades,,then,,in the same round,i would say,,look there,,5,6,7,8 ,9,10,,hearts!!,,{it was pleasing,ey sickening for each round was always packed with the same,exact order cards,,barely out of original order!!}always producing winning,4,5,6 card cambos for the house,high 20`s and 21s!! always,,same play,every table.
the same the next round,and the next.the dealers of course would deny any claim of responsibilty,always offering other tables to play,ect/
HEY,they would say,this is the shuffle they tell us to use.{its not the shuffle,really,its the wash!},,good answer guys.blame it on the shuffle.
question?,,take a deck of new cards form the pack.
lay them out in front of you.
take but one suit and lay ot the cards. [later,mutilply your results time four}
as you count thru the cards starting with two on up,,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 faces,,
notice the "pre determined" or,"original sequence" high hands,and,twenty ones!!,,6,7,8,theres four of them,per deck,6 in a shoe gamewaiting to happen!
other combos already set up.9,10.
0,jack,jack quen,queen king,king ace.
45{9},with any face,,=19.
so,,and,,even when one card is removed,one can clearly see there are even way more twnety one combos,literaly,,just waitng to come out in there original order!!,,
just waiting to happen.
so,for a few thousand dollard MORE per hour,per table,
do ya think the casino would INTENTIONALLY intruct the dealers to "short wash" the cards?,ya know,still wash them,BUT,,wash them for like a minute less,,{knowing the shorter the wash,the less thouroughly mixedthe cards will be},,do ya think they would do this?,
sure they would!!,,
what can we do?,the cards were washed,you could see that! the cards were shuffled,you could see that!,,were legit.if you dont like it,as we are often told,go somewhere else.
why is it,,on the tables that offered longer washes,,over a minute each deck,the play was then,as we know it,,more normal?,more random?
ahhh one may say,by golly,he may have a point here.
legalized cheating?,you tell me.
thanks folks,,i honestly welcome an and all feedback,im quite confidant in my findings,not bad for a country boy.

soultions to ensure a honest game?
come on now gameing commssion,we pay you to listen!
why not propose and enforce exact game procedures for each and every casino n the state to follow.f the casinos dont like it,oh well.
at least the honest people who fork over the huge bucks will know they are being treated fairly.
example,,one minute wash times,,each dealer,each table,ever time a table is opened.
instaed of paying 50 60 thou a year to some comish good to park his car an sit in casino office all day,,have him ut on the floor watching,timing,AND ACTUALY WORKING!!,,,amazing.
if the casino wont comply,shut the tables down,ect,,

Thank you for your response,
I can totally understand how you feel in seeing things like this, it is even more concerning when you are walking around and seeing the same thing at every table like I also have. Kris did say that Stanford Wong has done some indepth research on this topic and has not been able to recreate what we are both describing. So I guess my question would be how do we prove that something like that could be done? I would feel alot better if more experienced professional players of Mr. Wongs caliber had something to say about the topic we are discussing, but there have only been two responses so far. It would be nice to hear from people on the inside of the casino, like some ex dealers or someone like that. But it seems that this topic is old news, no one seems to want to spend any time on it. Kind of frustrating. Thanks again for your participation though, much appreciated.

It would be nice to hear from people on the inside of the casino, like some ex dealers or someone like that.

Since most dealers don't even know basic strategy, and believe much of the same superstitious nonsense that ploppies believe, what could they contribute to this?

My Initial thought was that since there is supposed to be some big conspiracy in some peoples minds (including mine sometimes) that the casinos are cheating players, I would think that the dealers who were trained to be accomplices in this crime against fair play would have some thoughts or experiences of their own since they have seen alot more of the game than any of us have or quite possibly will. I do see your point though, alot of dealers are from the book of ploppy, but there are some that read the books and even play themselves, these are the people that could contribute the most meaningful information in my opinion because they have an insiders look on the game and the industry. This brings me back to my question, if this is such a big thing in some peoples minds, how come I dont hear more about it, why wouldnt several hundred ex dealers blow the whistle on this, where are the experts on all of this? I was hoping to gain some knowledge on this topic as it relates to how the casino's edge is any different if the cards are being clumped.

There is absolutely no way to predict an advantage based on what has happened when looking at pure wins and losses.

There is a small, non-exploitable anti-correlation between one hand the next. For card counting to work it requires that winning hands result in a mild depletion of advantage.

Gaining an advantage based on card clumping, or "hot and cold" shoes, is pure fiction.

Some shuffles do produce minor biases in advantage, particulary cards in new deck order. So I would not agree the subject is pure fiction. Again, the effects are not exploitable, or at least not exploitable in a manner any one has come up with yet.